Did the Nats just help us (and the rest of the division)?

bravesnumberone said:
Well considering we won....oh what was it....96.....NINETY-SIX.... games with them previously, I don't think it was all that far-fetched.

* Both would be free agents, so you're looking at possibly big contract season outputs for them.
* The possibility, albeit not that great, of BJ bouncing back to decency with a new hitting coach.
* CJ being more productive against righties than last year.
* Simmons improving.
* More steady production out of 2B.
* A good, young rotation, even without Shelby Miller.
* The bullpen continuing to be one of the best in baseball.

Good likelihood a lot of that would have happened.

Even if you take the in-between, 88 wins might get you in the playoffs.

But nope, no way in hell. Noooooonnnnnneeeeeeee.
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We were poised to lose 400+ quality innings and didn't have the inclination (and perhaps the resources) to bring back Santana and Harang on multi-year deals. I think Teheran is a stud and Wood, while a potential stud, gives me some trepidation on the injury front. So a big comeback from Minor would absolutely have to happen and what's the percentage on that? No ready replacements in the upper minors and even though there were pitchers available over the winter, we would have had to go the patchwork route. I disagree with nscapi that there was this plenitude of pitching available that could have been acquired on short-term deals that would have (1) produced, and (2) met our budget.

I agree with the basic premise of how one feels about this off-season's moves can be traced to whether one believes we overperformed in 2013 or underperformed in 2014. I tend to think things really broke right for us in 2013 and while we were likely a playoff team in 2013, the fact we ran away with the division was a big surprise to me. I think a number of things broke wrong in 2014 and we grossly underperformed, but unless the stars would have lined up, I think we were looking at a .500 at best team in 2015.

Footnote: zito, I'll give you credit for being an optimist, but you lost me when you considered Aoki an option in CF. The Royals replaced him defensively in RF, so I don't think he would be a viable option in CF.
 
50PoundHead said:
Footnote: zito, I'll give you credit for being an optimist, but you lost me when you considered Aoki an option in CF. The Royals replaced him defensively in RF, so I don't think he would be a viable option in CF.
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But he's so lithe!

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50PoundHead said:
We were poised to lose 400+ quality innings and didn't have the inclination (and perhaps the resources) to bring back Santana and Harang on multi-year deals. I think Teheran is a stud and Wood, while a potential stud, gives me some trepidation on the injury front. So a big comeback from Minor would absolutely have to happen and what's the percentage on that? No ready replacements in the upper minors and even though there were pitchers available over the winter, we would have had to go the patchwork route. I disagree with nscapi that there was this plenitude of pitching available that could have been acquired on short-term deals that would have (1) produced, and (2) met our budget.

I agree with the basic premise of how one feels about this off-season's moves can be traced to whether one believes we overperformed in 2013 or underperformed in 2014. I tend to think things really broke right for us in 2013 and while we were likely a playoff team in 2013, the fact we ran away with the division was a big surprise to me. I think a number of things broke wrong in 2014 and we grossly underperformed, but unless the stars would have lined up, I think we were looking at a .500 at best team in 2015.

Footnote: zito, I'll give you credit for being an optimist, but you lost me when you considered Aoki an option in CF. The Royals replaced him defensively in RF, so I don't think he would be a viable option in CF.
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That hasn't exactly stopped John Hart in most cases.
 
bravesnumberone said:
That hasn't exactly stopped John Hart in most cases.
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My point is on the team's chances of competing for a playoff spot in 2015 and not Hart's off-season moves. In fact, injury concerns about Wood only strengthen Hart's assessment that the team couldn't successfully compete for a playoff spot because we would have had to replace 600 innings in the event Wood went down.
 
50PoundHead said:
My point is on the team's chances of competing for a playoff spot in 2015 and not Hart's off-season moves. In fact, injury concerns about Wood only strengthen Hart's assessment that the team couldn't successfully compete for a playoff spot because we would have had to replace 600 innings in the event Wood went down.
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100% concur.
 
yeezus said:
again: i have never seen a "fan" defend every single thing about a rival so vehemently. literally everything.
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He never bashes anything they do but bashes 70+ percent of everything Braves, makes you wonder.
 
gilesfan said:
He's certainly a piece because he's projected to be a ML starting SS due to speed/defense alone. Whether or not he hits will be a determination on how good of a major leaguer he is.

He was clocked at 3.42 seconds to first base after the ankle break. Here is a writeup from fangraphs on him....it mentions the mechanical adjustments he's made since college. (hit .323/.406/.448 in a ball last year)

Turner is polarizing but more because he hasn’t played much in pro ball and he had a bad draft year at North Carolina State. Scouts with history back to his underclass years with the Wolfpack (the above video is chronological and start in his sophomore year and with Team USA later that summer) are more optimistic because they saw the good version of Turner and know that a mechanical adjustment can explain almost all of his offensive struggles.

Turner had a couple minor leg injuries and then spread his feet too far apart, probably to generate more power, which caused his base to be weak and collapse at contact, undermining his natural bat control. He made the adjustment weeks before the draft and everything seemed in order in pro ball. Turner taps into his raw power in games when he’s making hard contact and he could be an 8-12 homer guy at maturity, but that isn’t really a big part of his game, more of a perk when he’s making lots of contact. With a full season in 2015 of solid performance, I would likely adjust Turner’s hit grade up at least one notch, as I’m already on the optimistic side right now versus scouts who only saw him in college (mostly early) in his draft spring.

Turner was a late bloomer that was largely unscouted in high school until very late his senior spring and he played third base his freshman year in college. He slid over to shortstop as a sophomore and eventually settled in to where his hands, instincts and actions are enough to be average at the position and his 55 arm is enough to make the play in the hole. Due to some of those minor league injuries, Turner’s 80 speed is now more of a 70 in game situations, but that difference is tough to notice unless you’re using a stopwatch.

Note: As I tweeted after Turner’s name came up in the rumors around the deal that he became eligible to be traded on December 13th, which was exactly 6 months after he signed his draft contract on June 13th. A player-to-be-named-later can be in question for up to 6 months and a drafted player has to wait until one year after he signs his contract to be traded. Turner will play for the Padres organization until June 13th, 2015, then will be shipped to the Nationals.
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No need to read any further after this word...
 
Look he was drafted really high and projected to be a first rounder by everyone. So clearly I'm in the minority and the majority do this for a living. So no need to pay attention to my opinion.

I'm a NCSU guy, would love to see him do well.

I just don't see it. He's clearly slower than he was as a frosh. Not the base stealer he was. And I don't see him ever hitting. He's not an elite SS in college IMO. I know I'm not biased from watching Simba and Furcal, but he's near that class. The arm isn't near elite. Really nothing is elite but speed and now the speed is damaged.

You could say the same thing about the fast CF we got for JUp. He's projected to be a ML starting CF b/c he's super fast.

I think Washington will be very disappointed.

gilesfan said:
He's certainly a piece because he's projected to be a ML starting SS due to speed/defense alone. Whether or not he hits will be a determination on how good of a major leaguer he is.

He was clocked at 3.42 seconds to first base after the ankle break. Here is a writeup from fangraphs on him....it mentions the mechanical adjustments he's made since college. (hit .323/.406/.448 in a ball last year)

Turner is polarizing but more because he hasn’t played much in pro ball and he had a bad draft year at North Carolina State. Scouts with history back to his underclass years with the Wolfpack (the above video is chronological and start in his sophomore year and with Team USA later that summer) are more optimistic because they saw the good version of Turner and know that a mechanical adjustment can explain almost all of his offensive struggles.

Turner had a couple minor leg injuries and then spread his feet too far apart, probably to generate more power, which caused his base to be weak and collapse at contact, undermining his natural bat control. He made the adjustment weeks before the draft and everything seemed in order in pro ball. Turner taps into his raw power in games when he’s making hard contact and he could be an 8-12 homer guy at maturity, but that isn’t really a big part of his game, more of a perk when he’s making lots of contact. With a full season in 2015 of solid performance, I would likely adjust Turner’s hit grade up at least one notch, as I’m already on the optimistic side right now versus scouts who only saw him in college (mostly early) in his draft spring.

Turner was a late bloomer that was largely unscouted in high school until very late his senior spring and he played third base his freshman year in college. He slid over to shortstop as a sophomore and eventually settled in to where his hands, instincts and actions are enough to be average at the position and his 55 arm is enough to make the play in the hole. Due to some of those minor league injuries, Turner’s 80 speed is now more of a 70 in game situations, but that difference is tough to notice unless you’re using a stopwatch.

Note: As I tweeted after Turner’s name came up in the rumors around the deal that he became eligible to be traded on December 13th, which was exactly 6 months after he signed his draft contract on June 13th. A player-to-be-named-later can be in question for up to 6 months and a drafted player has to wait until one year after he signs his contract to be traded. Turner will play for the Padres organization until June 13th, 2015, then will be shipped to the Nationals.
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Russ2dollas said:
Look he was drafted really high and projected to be a first rounder by everyone. So clearly I'm in the minority and the majority do this for a living. So no need to pay attention to my opinion.

I'm a NCSU guy, would love to see him do well.

I just don't see it. He's clearly slower than he was as a frosh. Not the base stealer he was. And I don't see him ever hitting. He's not an elite SS in college IMO. I know I'm not biased from watching Simba and Furcal, but he's near that class. The arm isn't near elite. Really nothing is elite but speed and now the speed is damaged.

You could say the same thing about the fast CF we got for JUp. He's projected to be a ML starting CF b/c he's super fast.

I think Washington will be very disappointed.
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I haven't seen anyone project Smith to be a ML starting CF, he wasn't even in the top 20 SD prospect lists. You are comparing the Padres 4th ranked prospect (top 100 prospect overall) to someone that was unranked in the top 20. (and maybe not top 400 prospect)
 
I am. But Turner has recency bias. He's shinny and new now. He's CB 3 years ago. Watch him not hit for a year or two and see.

And watching Turner play SS does not make me, and others (Klaw for example), think he is a SS in MLB.

gilesfan said:
I haven't seen anyone project Smith to be a ML starting CF, he wasn't even in the top 20 SD prospect lists. You are comparing the Padres 4th ranked prospect (top 100 prospect overall) to someone that was unranked in the top 20. (and maybe not top 400 prospect)
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Russ2dollas said:
I am. But Turner has recency bias. He's shinny and new now. He's CB 3 years ago. Watch him not hit for a year or two and see.

And watching Turner play SS does not make me, and others (Klaw for example), think he is a SS in MLB.
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That odd since Law thought the trade for Turner was "The Nationals made out like bandits"

Trea Turner, the presumed "player to be named later" in the deal, was the 13th overall pick in the 2014 draft out of North Carolina State; he's a contact hitter with plus speed, below-average power, and some questions about whether he stays at short. He has the quickness and the arm for it, but has struggled on the routine play and his body may not hold up to the beating a middle infielder can take during a full season. A player like Turner should get the opportunity to play himself off the position -- leave him there until he shows he can't handle it, and if he still can in the majors, that's a win for everybody. He might be a solid-average to slightly above-average regular there thanks to his speed, and at worst he's probably an everyday center fielder. He'll have to play in the Padres' system until June 13 because MLB refuses to repeal the antiquated rule that prohibits the trading of drafted players until a full calendar year after they've signed.
 
gilesfan said:
That odd since Law thought the trade for Turner was "The Nationals made out like bandits"

Trea Turner, the presumed "player to be named later" in the deal, was the 13th overall pick in the 2014 draft out of North Carolina State; he's a contact hitter with plus speed, below-average power, and s[B]ome questions about whether he stays at short.[/B] He has the quickness and the arm for it, but has struggled on the routine play and his body may not hold up to the beating a middle infielder can take during a full season. A player like Turner should get the opportunity to play himself off the position -- leave him there until he shows he can't handle it, and if he still can in the majors, that's a win for everybody. He might be a solid-average to slightly above-average regular there thanks to his speed, and at worst he's probably an everyday center fielder. He'll have to play in the Padres' system until June 13 because MLB refuses to repeal the antiquated rule that prohibits the trading of drafted players until a full calendar year after they've signed.
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See bold. He's not a no doubt MLB SS. That is my point.

Klaw's bandit line is about the value he sees in the trade. It's not that Turner is a star or will be a MLB SS. He seems to think he should get every opportunity but may need to move to CF.

He's much more likely to be Juan Pierre than Simba IMO.
 
In other words, he's projected as at worst and everyday centerfielder and thus is a considered "a piece" to the puzzle of future Nationals players. Law seems to think there is a chance he sticks at SS (Nats seem to agree) so it is perfectly reasonable to assume him as a future piece.
 
If it's ok to assume that The kid from the astros will be a good starting pitcher. Or that CB will be a good Catcher...

gilesfan said:
In other words, he's projected as at worst and everyday centerfielder and thus is a considered "a piece" to the puzzle of future Nationals players. Law seems to think there is a chance he sticks at SS (Nats seem to agree) so it is perfectly reasonable to assume him as a future piece.
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