Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

If the Braves aren’t pushing for 85+ wins in 2018, there is no reason to protect against Swanson or Camargo getting hurt or being terrible.

Either fix all of 3B, LF, the BP and maybe a SP, or don’t spend resources on anything.

Half measures are the worst course of action, and the Braves should have already learned that the last 3 years.
 
Well, where are we right now:

48 is replacement

Bench and pen: 4 (running total 52)

Flowers: 2(54)

Freeman: 5(59)

Albies: 3(62)

Swanson: 1(63)

Camargo: 1(64)

Acuna: 2(66)

Inciarte: 3(69)

Kemp/Muk in left: 1(70)

Teheran: 2.5 (72.5)

Folty: 2.5 (75)

Gohara: 2.5 (77.5)

Newcomb: 2 (79.5)

Veteran Starter: 1.5 (81)

If we can pick up a couple more wins along the expected win curve by having someone like Cozart, I think it is worth doing regardless of how we handle the situation in left.
 
nsacpi said:
Gohara also pitched very well at four different levels in 2017. Not too many prospects blow through 4 levels in one year like he did. And its silly to project anyone will do something like that. But when it happens you adjust your valuation accordingly.
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Exactly. Logenhagen was quick on the Gohara train while some (Baseball America) have been slow. Gohara blew up and dominated at 4 levels of competition in a single year which is really rare for a pitcher. That is exceptional and simply doesn't happen that often. For every prospect like Gohara there are also 30+ (made up number) like Travis Demmeriite who also has all the tools in the world but just simply toil around in the minors and likely amount to nothing. The Braves saw something they liked in Gohara and hit on a lottery pick essentially. But because one does doesn't mean we should expect these things to occur frequently. Could Riley be that guy? Anything is possible. I will root for the guy because the Braves need a long term solution there. Currently he is doing everything you could ask of the guy but is still a wait and see prospect. I would not construct the major league roster in a way that you would be afraid to block him. If he becomes a guy then that's a good problem to have.

As was mentioned earlier. Players like Acuna and Albies. Those are prospects you plan your major league roster around so they aren't blocked.
 
thewupk said:
Exactly. Logenhagen was quick on the Gohara train while some (Baseball America) have been slow. Gohara blew up and dominated at 4 levels of competition in a single year which is really rare for a pitcher. That is exceptional and simply doesn't happen that often. For every prospect like Gohara there are also 30+ (made up number) like Travis Demmeriite who also has all the tools in the world but just simply toil around in the minors and likely amount to nothing. The Braves saw something they liked in Gohara and hit on a lottery pick essentially. But because one does doesn't mean we should expect these things to occur frequently. Could Riley be that guy? Anything is possible. I will root for the guy because the Braves need a long term solution there. Currently he is doing everything you could ask of the guy but is still a wait and see prospect. I would not construct the major league roster in a way that you would be afraid to block him. If he becomes a guy then that's a good problem to have.

As was mentioned earlier. Players like Acuna and Albies. Those are prospects you plan your major league roster around so they aren't blocked.
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Braves saw a performance spike and thought they were buying low. Mariners saw a performance spike and thought they were selling high.
 
Southcack77 said:
Braves saw a performance spike and thought they were buying low. Mariners saw a performance spike and thought they were selling high.
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The Braves buy into sudden (and usually temporary) spikes in performance more so than almost any other team. It usually leads to drafting or trading for pitchers that no other teams value as highly. In the case of Gohara it may have finally paid off.
 
Southcack77 said:
Braves saw a performance spike and thought they were buying low. Mariners saw a performance spike and thought they were selling high.
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The Mariners also soured on his work habits, including the weight issue. Which might yet turn out to be something that significantly affects his ability to reach his potential.
 
Enscheff said:
The Braves buy into sudden (and usually temporary) spikes in performance more so than almost any other team. It usually leads to drafting or trading for pitchers that no other teams value as highly. In the case of Gohara it may have finally paid off.
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As a rule, it pays to make deals with front offices that are known to be below average. And avoid those that are very sharp.
 
I think the Braves have already messed up on their best chance for significant improvement next year. We blew it by resigning our current pitching coach and manager.

Once we get Acuna up and give Matt Kemp much more rest, I think we are putting a solid team on the field. The key will be development of our young starting pitchers. I just don't think our current pitching coach and manager are suited to do that.

I'm not even sure our manager is smart enough to use the arms of Camargo at third and Acuna in RF. I'd be willing to bet that he moves Acuna to LF or RF depending on whether he starts him with Markakis or Kemp. Same with defensive subbing for Kemp after his third at bat. I can't remember a single game where Snitker did that last year (probably did but I don't remember it).
 
My list of "below average" front offices: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Brewers
 
nsacpi said:
My list of "below average" front offices: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Brewers
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I’m inclined to throw Boston in that group as well. Dombrowski has one skill: gutting a farm for win now pieces.

I somewhat disagree about the Brewers being below average though. Tigers are probably average as well, but their navigation of their upcoming rebuild will be illustrative.
 
nsacpi said:
The Mariners also soured on his work habits, including the weight issue. Which might yet turn out to be something that significantly affects his ability to reach his potential.
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Laughable comment, considering he had lost in the range of 60 pounds before that 2016 season that got the attention of many around the game who weren't already paying attention. Gohara has worked hard to make changes to his diet and self-care. Some guys don't hold weight well, but Gohara is one of the more reactionary guys off the mound. Sabathia until just a few years ago when his knee stuff really took hold was the same way, considered among the best defenders off the mound in the entire game.
 
How the Tigers handle Norris and Fulmer during the rebuild will be all I need to see when rating their competence.

If they follow the Braves model with Teheran they are below average.

If they follow the White Sox plan with Sale and Quintana they are average or better.

I don’t expect them to bumble around and waste pitching value like the Braves did.
 
biggentleben said:
Laughable comment, considering he had lost in the range of 60 pounds before that 2016 season that got the attention of many around the game who weren't already paying attention. Gohara has worked hard to make changes to his diet and self-care. Some guys don't hold weight well, but Gohara is one of the more reactionary guys off the mound. Sabathia until just a few years ago when his knee stuff really took hold was the same way, considered among the best defenders off the mound in the entire game.
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You have claimed the Braves can trade international pool space at $1M a pop for prospects better than Drew Waters.

You have also said Pentecost will be claimed in the R5 draft and kept on a MLB roster all year.

We will see who makes laughable comments soon enough.
 
Enscheff said:
How the Tigers handle Norris and Fulmer during the rebuild will be all I need to see when rating their competence.

If they follow the Braves model with Teheran they are below average.

If they follow the White Sox plan with Sale and Quintana they are average or better.

I don’t expect them to bumble around and waste pitching value like the Braves did.
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They arguably did with Fulmer already. He could have gotten a haul prior to surgery and could see his value plummet.
 
nsacpi said:
My list of "below average" front offices: Mariners, Angels, Royals, Twins, Tigers, Orioles, Phillies, Marlins, Mets, Brewers
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The league would laugh at you. The Twins and Brewers are considered two of the most intelligent front offices in the league. The Twins hired Falvey and Levine and have been widely praised for their re-make of the organization (including a now-top 10 farm system). The Brewers continually have guys farmed off of their scouting and analytics departments by other organizations.

Funny also that you'd have the guy who was instrumental in the Yankees farm system development (Angels GM) and the guy every Braves fan was fawning over (Moore) on your list....
 
biggentleben said:
The league would laugh at you. The Twins and Brewers are considered two of the most intelligent front offices in the league. The Twins hired Falvey and Levine and have been widely praised for their re-make of the organization (including a now-top 10 farm system). The Brewers continually have guys farmed off of their scouting and analytics departments by other organizations.

Funny also that you'd have the guy who was instrumental in the Yankees farm system development (Angels GM) and the guy every Braves fan was fawning over (Moore) on your list....
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Agree with Brewers and Twins, I am not a fan of Moore though. I was estatic when we got AA instead.
 
Enscheff said:
You have claimed the Braves can trade international pool space at $1M a pop for prospects better than Drew Waters.

You have also said Pentecost will be claimed in the R5 draft and kept on a MLB roster all year.

We will see who makes laughable comments soon enough.
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No, I said the player the team traded for $1.25M of IFA money would rank better for me than Waters in my 2018 prospect list. Heck, I'm not sure I'd even hold to Ventura better than Waters if you asked me to project 5 years, but right now, I see a higher floor for Ventura's developed skills and developing other skills. Waters is a lot of high school hype and 58 PA in the GCL that looked good, but he also struck out nearly 1/3 of the time he came to the plate and showed very rough ability to handle struggles in his time in Danville. I'll take the guy I've seen positively handle adversity and still have positive projection left whose tools may not be as high ceiling over the guy who has struggled with the first exposure to adversity he had and has a significantly low floor still.

Heck, I'm not even saying I'd have him 10 spots higher on my list, just that I'd have Ventura higher.

I spend my time reviewing hundreds and thousands of hours of game film and speaking with guys who are there in person when I cannot be. I'm not making random comments on players for the sport of it...
 
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