Discussion of Braves 2018 Offseason plans

The thing to keep in mind with Riley is power hitters rarely ever make any impact in the majors until about 23 years old. If Riley is ready at 21 (turns 21 in April) he’d be an elite superstar and I don’t think he’s in that category.
 
Chico said:
The thing to keep in mind with Riley is power hitters rarely ever make any impact in the majors until about 23 years old. If Riley is ready at 21 (turns 21 in April) he’d be an elite superstar and I don’t think he’s in that category.
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Riley shouldn't even be in the discussion till 2019. At the very least he needs 500 more PA at AA/AAA.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
What does everyone think about Greg Holland?

Sure he comes with the loss of a pick (in the Braves case a 3rd rounder) but his market hasn't really developed.

MLBTR has him projected for a 4 year $50M payday (AAV $12.5M). My thinking is to sign him and then move him at the deadline to teams needing a closer. Maybe backload the contract a bit ( $5M bonus, $5M salary, then $13.33M years 2-4). If he doesn't get hurt or completely fall apart (a risk with any player) then he is probably one of the premier closers that might be available at the deadline. When you look at what the Yankees got for Andrew Miller ( Frazier, Sheffield - #4 prospect, Heller #21 prospect and closer candidate, and Feyeriesen - middle relief candidate) and Chapman (Torres - #1 prospect/#2 in baseball, Billy McKinney - #22 prospect, Adam Warren - MLB swingman, and Rashad Crawford).

You could argue that Holland wouldn't have the value of either and most likely be right. However, even taking that as a given would a Holland for a Frazier type prospect (or Sheffield) straight up be likely better than a 3rd round pick? Would Holland for a Torres straight up?

You could argue economics in that the 3rd round pick would cost you about $1M while Holland (under the scenario outlined above would cost about $7.5M (5M bonus, 2.5M salary for 1/2 season). You could also argue that the third round pick might ultimately be a better player than anything you could get in trade. I find that unlikely since not many 3rd rounders ever make an impact (it does happen).

If the Braves were to take this approach they would need to be disciplined enough under the scenario where Holland has 25 saves and a 1.5 era at the break that they still make him available to trade. Otherwise they open themselves to longevity risk that you were writing off when you originally made the decision.
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Would be happy to reply since I bumped into his Dad at Lowes this morning. Had an interesting 30 or so minute chat.

Can't comment on it though - that'd be "name-dropping".
 
The last time you name dropped Holland he was getting ready to sign with the Rox according to you.

Just stop. You get the answers they give all annoying fans that approach them at the hardware store.
 
If the best offer for JD Martinez, who had an unbelievable year, is 5\100, he could represent the BEST value for LF. I'd go 6\125 backloaded a bit and get him in here this season for a run next year. The FA mkt being slow could help represent a bargain for some folks and it would keep us from 30M+ for other FA's next season.

He doesn't want to play 1B in Boston, and they currently have the top offer per rotoworld.
 
Tapate50 said:
If the best offer for JD Martinez, who had an unbelievable year, is 5\100, he could represent the BEST value for LF. I'd go 6\125 backloaded a bit and get him in here this season for a run next year. The FA mkt being slow could help represent a bargain for some folks and it would keep us from 30M+ for other FA's next season.

He doesn't want to play 1B in Boston, and they currently have the top offer per rotoworld.
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I don't think outbidding an AL team who can move a poor defender like JDM to DH is a wise move for the Braves.
 
Enscheff said:
I don't think outbidding an AL team who can move a poor defender like JDM to DH is a wise move for the Braves.
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I was completely unaware of how bad he was out there.

Pretty bad, as one season of remotely avg production isn’t much to be optimistic about.
 
Enscheff said:
I don't think outbidding an AL team who can move a poor defender like JDM to DH is a wise move for the Braves.
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It wouldn't fit with AA's narrative of wanting to improve the defense. JDM is likely to be the next Kemp half way through his deal.
 
FG agrees that now might be a good time for the Braves to make some moves: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-braves-time-to-spend-could-be-now/

The money quote is at the end, "A lot of teams appear to be sitting this offseason out. The Braves shouldn’t be one of them."

While his "trade for Yelich, sign Mous to a back loaded contract" thesis is not extremely likely to transpire, the overall logic is sound.

The Braves could sign Cain and Frazier to back loaded contracts. Frazier is projected for 2.5 wins, while Cain is projected for 3+ wins. If the Braves are a 77 win team now, adding ~5 wins gets them to 82...with upside for more.

So the decision comes down to this series of questions:

- Should the Braves be willing to give up on spending big next offseason to make a push for fringe WC contention this offseason?
- Are there any OFers available next offseason who are better than what Cain/Yelich project to be in 2019?
- Would it make any sense at all to upgrade the OF this year without also upgrading 3B?
- Are there any 3B available next offseason who are better than what Frazier/Mous project to be in 2019?
- Do the Braves want to forgo this chance to give Camargo a look, and potentially block Riley?

Overall, how much of a discount is needed for it to make sense for the Braves to spend now rather than next offseason? 10%? 20%? No amount makes it worthwhile before other teams jump in?
 
Enscheff said:
FG agrees that now might be a good time for the Braves to make some moves: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-braves-time-to-spend-could-be-now/

The money quote is at the end, "A lot of teams appear to be sitting this offseason out. The Braves shouldn’t be one of them."

While his "trade for Yelich, sign Mous to a back loaded contract" thesis is not extremely likely to transpire, the overall logic is sound.

The Braves could sign Cain and Frazier to back loaded contracts. Frazier is projected for 2.5 wins, while Cain is projected for 3+ wins. If the Braves are a 77 win team now, adding ~5 wins gets them to 82...with upside for more.

So the decision comes down to this series of questions:

- Should the Braves be willing to give up on spending big next offseason to make a push for fringe WC contention this offseason?
- Are there any OFers available next offseason who are better than what Cain/Yelich project to be in 2019?
- Would it make any sense at all to upgrade the OF this year without also upgrading 3B?
- Are there any 3B available next offseason who are better than what Frazier/Mous project to be in 2019?
- Do the Braves want to forgo this chance to give Camargo a look, and potentially block Riley?

Overall, how much of a discount is needed for it to make sense for the Braves to spend now rather than next offseason? 10%? 20%? No amount makes it worthwhile before other teams jump in?
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If you acquire a 3B and OF this offseason there is no need to worry about next offseason as you'd be set everywhere except Catcher for thenext 3 years. You can decide between going after Grandal or resigning Flowers.

Since this talk of the "Big offseason of 2019" years ago I've thought it a bad idea for anyone outside of the Dodgers, Yankees, and other big boys to even care about. There's going to be a lot of money thrown around and mid market teams cannot get swept up in it. Donaldson would be great, but he'll be 33. Blackmon could be great, but he'll be 32 and the Colorado effect has to be considered. Pollock could be ideal, but he cannot make it through a full season.
 
Chico said:
If you acquire a 3B and OF this offseason there is no need to worry about next offseason as you'd be set everywhere except Catcher for thenext 3 years. You can decide between going after Grandal or resigning Flowers.

Since this talk of the "Big offseason of 2019" years ago I've thought it a bad idea for anyone outside of the Dodgers, Yankees, and other big boys to even care about. There's going to be a lot of money thrown around and mid market teams cannot get swept up in it. Donaldson would be great, but he'll be 33. Blackmon could be great, but he'll be 32 and the Colorado effect has to be considered. Pollock could be ideal, but he cannot make it through a full season.
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The question is: Are there players available that the Braves could sign this offseason that will do enough in future seasons to make them a real contender, even after they begin to decline?
 
comes down to cost...if the price drops enough we should be looking at guys like Frazier, Moose and Yelich.
 
I could see the Braves making the big trade for Yelich and signing Moustakas.

Inciarte CF
Albies 2B
Yelich LF
Freeman 1B
Moose 3B
Acuna RF
Swanson SS
Flowers/Suzuki C
 
btw that fourth year of Muk's contract is turning out to be something that is making a difference...little details like that add up
 
Enscheff said:
FG agrees that now might be a good time for the Braves to make some moves: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-braves-time-to-spend-could-be-now/

The money quote is at the end, "A lot of teams appear to be sitting this offseason out. The Braves shouldn’t be one of them."

While his "trade for Yelich, sign Mous to a back loaded contract" thesis is not extremely likely to transpire, the overall logic is sound.

The Braves could sign Cain and Frazier to back loaded contracts. Frazier is projected for 2.5 wins, while Cain is projected for 3+ wins. If the Braves are a 77 win team now, adding ~5 wins gets them to 82...with upside for more.

So the decision comes down to this series of questions:

- Should the Braves be willing to give up on spending big next offseason to make a push for fringe WC contention this offseason?
- Are there any OFers available next offseason who are better than what Cain/Yelich project to be in 2019?
- Would it make any sense at all to upgrade the OF this year without also upgrading 3B?
- Are there any 3B available next offseason who are better than what Frazier/Mous project to be in 2019?
- Do the Braves want to forgo this chance to give Camargo a look, and potentially block Riley?

Overall, how much of a discount is needed for it to make sense for the Braves to spend now rather than next offseason? 10%? 20%? No amount makes it worthwhile before other teams jump in?
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I don’t care about money discount. I do care about years. If the braves were looking at a guy wanting a 5 year deal and instead get a three or four year deal with options you have to look

The draft pick loss on top of the third round loss may stop us on mouse etc.

If you love Riley he could be a lf if needed

We have to be realistic about next years class. Have to figure out how to clear the 40 man usefully of guys with value but not a lot of value. See Ruiz, Simms, etc.

Getting a deal this year might be better than market next year.

If you could get Cain and moose on 3 year deals with option years then you have to beg liberty for the Santana loan
 
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