Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Unless we got a window to sign him, there is no reason to trade that much for him.
DOB: Braves offseason about to get a lot busier. - Gamel released.
- Thread starter Heyward
- Start date
Unless we got a window to sign him, there is no reason to trade that much for him.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
I think we basically agree, though I wouldn't balk at extending someone like Teheran or Minor at some point. It just depends on the cost of doing so, etc.
tvsportscaster
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
When was the last legitimate ace the Braves have had since John Smoltz, Glavine and Maddux and think that philosphy is BS. They need an ace and haven't had one in a very long time. So that track record thing ain't there.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
How many teams today have a true ace? I cannot argue with Wren when he says not very many do. When you consider that point along with our track record for developing pitching, then it isn't hard to come to the conclusion that we're more likely to produce such an ace than find one available via trade (at a price we can afford to pay).
We sure don't want to make the mistake of trading another Wainwright by becoming so desperate to find an ace.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Over the past ten years, our farm system produced Wainwright, Hanson, Harrison, Medlen, Minor, Feliz, Teheran, Beachy, Wood, Delgado, Locke, Morton. The system has been productive enough that our GM has felt able to trade away six of them to help acquire highly regarded position players.
We've basically produced at a rate of one quality starter per year for the past ten years. One of them (Wainwright) is generally regarded as an ace. Others have made the All-Star team.
Chances are we will continue to produce one quality starter per year. We currently have Sims, Cabrera, Graham, Hursh, Hale, Martin, Thomas, Parsons in the pipeline, enough so that even with the usual attrition we should not be wanting for starting pitching.
tvsportscaster
Approaching Buddy Hernandez Territory
Of those guys you mentioned a grand total of one, Wainwright is considered an ace. A couple of those the jury is still out on.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
Also, don't forget lefty starter Matt Harrison from the original Tex trade. He won 18 games in '12 and put up solid numbers two years in a row before the injury bug knocked him out all of last year. He is supposed to be back in the Rangers rotation this year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Yeah. I added him to the list.
The thing I take encouragement from is that Medlen, Minor, Beachy, Teheran and Wood have all already performed at a high level in the majors. And they all are fairly young. Any one of them just needs a small improvement in their walk or strikeout rate and they'll be there with the guys generally regarded as elite pitchers. I don't know which one will take that step, but I'd be willing to bet one of them does it in 2014.
Heyward
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br>'13, '14, '15 (Co-Winner
Or acquire one, because at least one (arguably two) of those ten are available right now ... and then we can stop pretending that any one of Medlen/Beachy/Teheran/Wood is.
The hardest part of netting Price would not be extending him. The Braves don't make that deal to begin with unless they aren't prepared/able to spend a fair chunk of change, and despite all of this fear-mongering about the Braves being the next Tampa Bay Rays (which they are not -- and to make the comparison, even loosely, is laughable), this team still has money to spend.
Or acquire one, because at least one (arguably two) of those ten are available right now ... and then we can stop pretending that any one of Medlen/Beachy/Teheran/Wood is.
The hardest part of netting Price would not be extending him. The Braves don't make that deal to begin with unless they aren't prepared/able to spend a fair chunk of change, and despite all of this fear-mongering about the Braves being the next Tampa Bay Rays (which they are not -- and to make the comparison, even loosely, is laughable), this team still has money to spend.
The price to acquire aces is generally not worth it. And they are no guarantee for anything anyways. The Braves just got done allowing 548 runs as a team. The fourth lowest total for a team in a non strike year in almost 40 years. Our pitching is fine.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The other thing is the list of "aces" has a certain amount of churning, which reflects the fact that pitchers get hurt, improve or regress all the time. If we made a list of the guys considered the top 10 starting pitchers after the 2010 season and made a similar list after the 2013 season, how big do you think the overlap would be?
BRule
<B>BBQ Lead Hostess</B>
Only one of them is an "ace" and we traded him away.
If you compare the major league stats of Kris Medlen and David Price, they are very similar so far in their careers.
Medlen - ERA 2.95, WHIP 1.155, K/BB 3.59
Price - ERA 3.19, WHIP 1.158, K/BB 3.06
The only thing Price has exceeded Medlen is in innings pitched per season, but that was mainly due to Kris being used as a reliever most of the time except this past year when he started all year. If Kris goes over 200 innings this year and pitches the same as he has his whole career, he should be classified as an ace.
Mike Minor pitched 204.2 innings in 2013 with a 3.21 ERA, WHIP 1.090 and K/BB of 3.93. If he duplicates those same stats in 2014 he should be classified an ace.
Julio Teheran pitched 185.2 innings in 2013 with a 3.20 ERA, WHIP of 1.174, K/BB of 3.78. If he ups his innings to 200+ with the same stats, he should be classified an ace.
That's 3 pitchers on our current staff that are very close to being an ace who all could very well take that small step forward in 2014 to being an ace. Why would we trade off half the farm and spend huge bucks for an ace when we have those 3 guys on our staff. That doesn't even begin to mention Beachy, who if healthy, is also an excellent pitcher, Alex Wood who was very good in his first taste of the bigs, plus all the high upside young guys we have in the pipeline. We had the best pitching in baseball last year and still do.
Medlen - ERA 2.95, WHIP 1.155, K/BB 3.59
Price - ERA 3.19, WHIP 1.158, K/BB 3.06
The only thing Price has exceeded Medlen is in innings pitched per season, but that was mainly due to Kris being used as a reliever most of the time except this past year when he started all year. If Kris goes over 200 innings this year and pitches the same as he has his whole career, he should be classified as an ace.
Mike Minor pitched 204.2 innings in 2013 with a 3.21 ERA, WHIP 1.090 and K/BB of 3.93. If he duplicates those same stats in 2014 he should be classified an ace.
Julio Teheran pitched 185.2 innings in 2013 with a 3.20 ERA, WHIP of 1.174, K/BB of 3.78. If he ups his innings to 200+ with the same stats, he should be classified an ace.
That's 3 pitchers on our current staff that are very close to being an ace who all could very well take that small step forward in 2014 to being an ace. Why would we trade off half the farm and spend huge bucks for an ace when we have those 3 guys on our staff. That doesn't even begin to mention Beachy, who if healthy, is also an excellent pitcher, Alex Wood who was very good in his first taste of the bigs, plus all the high upside young guys we have in the pipeline. We had the best pitching in baseball last year and still do.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Small stat edit suggestion. Because we want both as starters we should toss both of their reliever stats out
Medlen era 2.96 K/9 7.58 BB/9 1.97 HR/9 0.85 FIP 3.37
Price ERA 3.20 K/9 8.09 BB/9 2.66 HT/9 0.80 FIP 3.40
Now Price does play in the AL so there should be some league adjustment, but overall the difference between Price and Medlen isn't gigantic. Price is a great pitcher, but I don't think he's the missing piece. Sure he'd make our team better, but not at the cost of giving up say Heyward, that would make us much worse. While Price is a big improvement over Wood/Beachy, not big enough to offset who would wind up in left field. **** I don't even know who that would be? Schafer? Sucks at offense. Terds? Sucks at defense maybe at offense as well. Cunningham? Probably the best overall bet, but not a good hitter at all.
You inquire about guys like Price but in the end you just gotta walk away from making a bad trade. We are a very good team, we have some holes but I'd rather make some small risky signings to give us depth than anything else. At best our rotation has potentially 5 3-3.5 ERA guys. At worst we have 5 guys who're number 3 starters. We have a very talented pitching staff. Then add in the comeback of Gavin Floyd which massively improves our depth since Wood can then slide to the pen or to AAA.
Medlen era 2.96 K/9 7.58 BB/9 1.97 HR/9 0.85 FIP 3.37
Price ERA 3.20 K/9 8.09 BB/9 2.66 HT/9 0.80 FIP 3.40
Now Price does play in the AL so there should be some league adjustment, but overall the difference between Price and Medlen isn't gigantic. Price is a great pitcher, but I don't think he's the missing piece. Sure he'd make our team better, but not at the cost of giving up say Heyward, that would make us much worse. While Price is a big improvement over Wood/Beachy, not big enough to offset who would wind up in left field. **** I don't even know who that would be? Schafer? Sucks at offense. Terds? Sucks at defense maybe at offense as well. Cunningham? Probably the best overall bet, but not a good hitter at all.
You inquire about guys like Price but in the end you just gotta walk away from making a bad trade. We are a very good team, we have some holes but I'd rather make some small risky signings to give us depth than anything else. At best our rotation has potentially 5 3-3.5 ERA guys. At worst we have 5 guys who're number 3 starters. We have a very talented pitching staff. Then add in the comeback of Gavin Floyd which massively improves our depth since Wood can then slide to the pen or to AAA.
Generally, yes. But that shouldn't (and hasn't) deterred the Braves from looking.
I don't think anybody has said that our pitching isn't fine, but we don't have an ace - not even close.
They are the ones you want out there in the big games (2012 NLWC, 2013 NLDS Game 4) to help us, you know, win a championship.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Depends on your criteria. If you use fWAR it's a decent amount. BUt your general point is right.
In the end in baseball there have really only been 5 guys who've been consistently dominant in the last 4-5 years, Lee, Kershaw, Verlander, and King Felix. Wainwright being the 5th but he did have injury issues that are likely to continue.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
I think Minor is that guy to be honest. Look at what he did in game 2. Medlen I think is a little too emotional to be the rock guy. SOme guys have gotten away with that, but usually they've got sick fastballs like Smoltz. When Medlen pitches amped up and over pitches the 2-3 MPH added to his fastball makes it go about 90 and straightens it out. Medlen I think is the type who would do well on the road though. Assuming we get in as the division leader again, and assuming the performance is about where it was last year. Our playoff rotation should go Minor Julio Medlen FLoyd/Beachy
Minor is a tone setter JMO. He's the type of guy you put out on the mound who doesn't let runners score in the top half of the next inning because he relaxes a little or whatever.
Odds are we can't acquire someone who's a surefire bet to be dominant. Price may be that guy but he's not the type I think of as truly dominant. I think of Cliff Lee, or Kershaw. Neither of them we're likely to acquire though if we had the money we could probably get Lee for Bethancourt and a few other prospects. And I'd do that.
Looking sure. But people shouldn't demand we get one or be upset that we don't. The price is almost always too high in FA for the contracts they want or the talent it would take to get them if under contract.
And yes they are nice to have for the big game. But Verlander has no rings for Detroit. Kershaw has no rings for the Dodgers. And Price has no rings for Tampa. They don't guarantee you anything. So you don't need one.