Donaldson in 2019

[jpx7]

That's totally fair. I was trying to come up with the right phrase for the next tier under superstar, but you certainly are correct that 2015 and 2016 in particular were superstar level seasons.

I would put him one notch below the best and maybe part of that is his age and part of it well may be his being an AL player in smaller media markets.

That's certainly it. Production wise he's close to the top of most lists the past few years.

Have to agree with thewupk that it's perception more than production that would have you label Donaldson "one notch below the best". As I posted a few days ago, since debuting, Donaldson's been second only to Trout in position-player WAR—and he's been significantly better than "superstar" Bryce Harper. For fun, over Harper's career:

[table="width: 500"]
[tr]
[td]2012–2017 Seasons[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Player[/td]
[td]bWAR[/td]
[td]fWAR[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Mike Trout[/td]
[td]54.5[/td]
[td]53.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Josh Donaldson[/td]
[td]37.6[/td]
[td]37.1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Abies' Future*[/td]
[td]28.9[/td]
[td]26.0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Manny Machado[/td]
[td]27.9[/td]
[td]26.0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Bryce Harper[/td]
[td]26.1[/td]
[td]27.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Jason Heyward[/td]
[td]26.0[/td]
[td]23.6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Freddie Freeman[/td]
[td]25.2[/td]
[td]24.9[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
(*Jose Altuve)

And I chose Harper's entire six seasons in the big leagues, as opposed to the most-recent-five I originally had in mind, because including 2012 stats actually benefits Harper somewhat substantially.

Obviously, bWAR and fWAR don't tell the whole story, but they tell a lot of it; and the fact is, people (very wrongly) try to talk about Harper in the same breath as Trout all the time, but Donaldson's been a lot closer to that echelon than the 26-year-old "superstar". Indeed, if either of the two belong "one notch below"—for now, based on actual production—it's Bryce Harper, who's heretofore had a career only slightly more productive than Jason Heyward or Freddie Freeman.

 

[Enscheff]

1. The risk of injury is not congruent with the risk of decline.

2. All things being considered, past injuries aside, you are more likely to get a prime season out of a 26 year old superstar than you are out of a 33 year old lesser star.

I will agree with you on two points while we are at it. 1) the Kiley McDaniel article was sort of a mess and 2) one of the muddled points in that mess was he made was similar to something you mentioned earlier in this thread -- there is some question whether front offices might be headed towards paralysis by analysis.

If prices fall on Donaldson because no one wants to be the sucker who overpays the aging veteran, it starts to make sense for Atlanta.

Paying him 30 million for 6 years just to get the possibility of three good ones is not a wise decision, but I do know that is not what you were advocating.

It’s important to clarify exactly what my point is.

I don’t think signing Donaldson is particularly likely. I also don’t think it is (likely) the best move the Braves could make to address 3b. There are some pretty specific events that could make Donaldson a good move for the Braves, but the likelihood of them all happening is pretty remote.

My point is that Donaldson is the only mega FA in recent memory who is even remotely possible for the Braves to sign, which can’t be said for any of the other top FAs that have been discussed on these boards in the past.

 

[Southcack77]

Have to agree with thewupk that it's perception more than production that would have you label Donaldson "one notch below the best". As I posted a few days ago, since debuting, Donaldson's been second only to Trout in position-player WAR—and he's been significantly better than "superstar" Bryce Harper. For fun, over Harper's career:

[table="width: 500"]
[tr]
[td]2012–2017 Seasons[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Player[/td]
[td]bWAR[/td]
[td]fWAR[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Mike Trout[/td]
[td]54.5[/td]
[td]53.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Josh Donaldson[/td]
[td]37.6[/td]
[td]37.1[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Abies' Future*[/td]
[td]28.9[/td]
[td]26.0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Manny Machado[/td]
[td]27.9[/td]
[td]26.0[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Bryce Harper[/td]
[td]26.1[/td]
[td]27.7[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Jason Heyward[/td]
[td]26.0[/td]
[td]23.6[/td]
[/tr]
[tr]
[td]Freddie Freeman[/td]
[td]25.2[/td]
[td]24.9[/td]
[/tr]
[/table]
(*Jose Altuve)

And I chose Harper's entire six seasons in the big leagues, as opposed to the most-recent-five I originally had in mind, because including 2012 stats actually benefits Harper somewhat substantially.

Obviously, bWAR and fWAR don't tell the whole story, but they tell a lot of it; and the fact is, people (very wrongly) try to talk about Harper in the same breath as Trout all the time, but Donaldson's been a lot closer to that echelon than the 26-year-old "superstar". Indeed, if either of the two belong "one notch below"—for now, based on actual production—it's Bryce Harper, who's heretofore had a career only slightly more productive than Jason Heyward or Freddie Freeman.

Totally fair, but also one will be 26 and one will be 33. And Donaldson was a 5 WAR player this past season, not a 7 or 8 WAR player.

You also have Harper having logged a 9.5 WAR season at 23. I'd rate Harper higher at this point in time.

 

[Enscheff]

Totally fair, but also one will be 26 and one will be 33. And Donaldson was a 5 WAR player this past season, not a 7 or 8 WAR player.

You also have Harper having logged a 9.5 WAR season at 23. I'd rate Harper higher at this point in time.

Lol of course Harper is “rated higher at this point in time”. That’s why Harper is going to cost $400M+ and Donaldson is going to cost $150M.

I’m sure you can figure out which one the Braves might actually be able to afford.

 

[jpx7]

Totally fair, but also one will be 26 and one will be 33. And Donaldson was a 5 WAR player this past season, not a 7 or 8 WAR player.

You also have Harper having logged a 9.5 WAR season at 23. I'd rate Harper higher at this point in time.

I’d rate Harper as likelier to outproduce Donaldson over the next six-year sample, but that’s not really the point of this little tangent. The point is, heretofore, Donaldson has been the much better player, and production-wise is every bit (and more) a superstar relative to Harper (who, in fact, was likewise a 5 WAR player this past season).

 

[Southcack77]

I’d rate Harper as likelier to outproduce Donaldson over the next six-year sample, but that’s not really the point of this little tangent. The point is, heretofore, Donaldson has been the much better player, and production-wise is every bit (and more) a superstar relative to Harper (who, in fact, was likewise a 5 WAR player this past season).

ok. What if I said again it's a fair argument that 33 year old Donaldson belongs in higher category than 26 year old Harper?

Could we close that down? I'd still rather give Harper 40 million for ten than Donaldson 28 for six.

I don't see either as being very particularly wise, but Donaldson seems dumber.

 

[Enscheff]

ok. What if I said again it's a fair argument that 33 year old Donaldson belongs in higher category than 26 year old Harper?

Could we close that down? I'd still rather give Harper 40 million for ten than Donaldson 28 for six.

I don't see either as being very particularly wise, but Donaldson seems dumber.

And what if you can’t afford to give Harper 40, still want to win in 2019, and have a gaping hole at 3B?

 

[Jaw]

Lol of course Harper is “rated higher at this point in time”. That’s why Harper is going to cost $400M+ and Donaldson is going to cost $150M.

I’m sure you can figure out which one the Braves might actually be able to afford.

Exactly that. There will be money that has to be spent. I'm fine with it if that money is used to extend some of the young talent. I'm fine with it if that money is used to pick up short term productive players in trade. I just don't want to see it wasted on multiple 2 win players in free agency. We should be growing those guys on our own instead of overpaying for them. Donaldson seems like a possibility to get a few years of an elite hitter at a comparable bargain, and at a time when we can afford it. When was the last time we did that in free agency? The Big Cat?

 

[thewupk]

Exactly that. There will be money that has to be spent. I'm fine with it if that money is used to extend some of the young talent. I'm fine with it if that money is used to pick up short term productive players in trade. I just don't want to see it wasted on multiple 2 win players in free agency. We should be growing those guys on our own instead of overpaying for them. Donaldson seems like a possibility to get a few years of an elite hitter at a comparable bargain, and at a time when we can afford it. When was the last time we did that in free agency? The Big Cat?

Well if this market is any indication the Braves should be able to shore up LF next year pretty cheap with a ~2 WAR player. But largely I would agree. League average player in FA is usually one of the worst use of resources after high end relievers.

 

[nsacpi]

Well if this market is any indication the Braves should be able to shore up LF next year pretty cheap with a ~2 WAR player. But largely I would agree. League average player in FA is usually one of the worst use of resources after high end relievers.

It seems to me we will be able to buy about six wins with the payroll flexibility we have next year. If we have to spread it out over 3 positions, it will be mainly 2 win players (unless we leverage the farm to acquire some players with significant surplus value in their contracts). If we have to spread it over 2 positions, we should be able to aim a bit higher at least at one of the positions.

 

[Southcack77]

Exactly that. There will be money that has to be spent. I'm fine with it if that money is used to extend some of the young talent. I'm fine with it if that money is used to pick up short term productive players in trade. I just don't want to see it wasted on multiple 2 win players in free agency. We should be growing those guys on our own instead of overpaying for them. Donaldson seems like a possibility to get a few years of an elite hitter at a comparable bargain, and at a time when we can afford it. When was the last time we did that in free agency? The Big Cat?

I'm just suggesting that while it sounds fun to have a near star worthy Donaldson at Age 33 contributing to very young Braves teams that might very well be wild card contenders, it might be less fun when he's making 25 million dollars to put up 1 WAR for the back three years of the deal while guys like Acuna, Albies, Swanson, and the pitchers are in their cheap prime (and extension season) and needing some help to maximize what would seem to be their best window of contention.

that's the consideration I have for the deal. And no amount of saying it was a bargain in the first three years is going to make that potential end feel any better to the folks wondering why Atlanta can't go out and get something to get over the top.

It's true that maybe he ages really gracefully and you never have that problem. It's also entirely possible that the 5 WAR last year is more of the new baseline and he declines from there.

Personally, while I appreciate he's been a great player, I don't think its a good idea to introduce that much controllable age-based risk into what should be a six year core if things work out like folks hope.

Anyway, I think this should be a wait and see season for the front office to really evaluate the young players in the majors and their minor league prospects and see what they have and then see what they can go out and acquire. That gives you another year to watch Donaldson and everyone else to see what they are doing out there.

 

[Tapate50]

I’d be a big fan of bringing in Donaldson as long as Barry Bonds comes as hitting instructor and nutritionist about his age 35 season.

 

[Enscheff]

I'm just suggesting that while it sounds fun to have a near star worthy Donaldson at Age 33 contributing to very young Braves teams that might very well be wild card contenders, it might be less fun when he's making 25 million dollars to put up 1 WAR for the back three years of the deal while guys like Acuna, Albies, Swanson, and the pitchers are in their cheap prime (and extension season) and needing some help to maximize what would seem to be their best window of contention.

that's the consideration I have for the deal. And no amount of saying it was a bargain in the first three years is going to make that potential end feel any better to the folks wondering why Atlanta can't go out and get something to get over the top.

It's true that maybe he ages really gracefully and you never have that problem. It's also entirely possible that the 5 WAR last year is more of the new baseline and he declines from there.

Personally, while I appreciate he's been a great player, I don't think its a good idea to introduce that much controllable age-based risk into what should be a six year core if things work out like folks hope.

Anyway, I think this should be a wait and see season for the front office to really evaluate the young players in the majors and their minor league prospects and see what they have and then see what they can go out and acquire. That gives you another year to watch Donaldson and everyone else to see what they are doing out there.

I do agree with your premise that the Braves are more likely to be contenders when Donaldson sucks than when he is still in his prime. That’s the main reason it is unlikely they will sign him.

However, if the young players progress in 2018 such that the addition of Donaldson increases the projections from 85 to 90 wins, I think he is a viable target. Taking a shot at 90 wins in the upcoming season is always preferable to saying “we may win 90 games 3 years from now”.

 

[thewupk]

I do agree with your premise that the Braves are more likely to be contenders when Donaldson sucks than when he is still in his prime. That’s the main reason it is unlikely they will sign him.

However, if the young players progress in 2018 such that the addition of Donaldson increases the projections from 85 to 90 wins, I think he is a viable target. Taking a shot at 90 wins in the upcoming season is always preferable to saying “we may win 90 games 3 years from now”.

As you said, Donaldson only makes sense if players progress in 2018 like you hope. At that point you could be in a position to make a splash with Donaldson and also acquire potential ~2 WAR guys with little surplus value for LF and 1 rotation spot if needed for low end prospects. Then you are looking at a solid contender.

 

[Enscheff]

As you said, Donaldson only makes sense if players progress in 2018 like you hope. At that point you could be in a position to make a splash with Donaldson and also acquire potential ~2 WAR guys with little surplus value for LF and 1 rotation spot if needed for low end prospects. Then you are looking at a solid contender.

It would also require Riley and Camargo falling in their faces in 2018.

Having the entire Braves organization click while Riley and Camargo scuffle is not overly likely, and that’s really the only way a Donaldson acquisition makes sense.

 

[nsacpi]

It would also require Riley and Camargo falling in their faces in 2018.

Having the entire Braves organization click while Riley and Camargo scuffle is not overly likely, and that’s really the only way a Donaldson acquisition makes sense.

Well there are other scenarios. Camargo could have a decent year, say 2-3 WAR, but the front office could choose to move him and upgrade at third.

 

[Enscheff]

Well there are other scenarios. Camargo could have a decent year, say 2-3 WAR, but the front office could choose to move him and upgrade at third.

If Camargo is a 2-3 win guy at 3B, I would be strongly against paying Donaldson $25M-$30M. If Riley posts a .900 OPS in AA/AAA over 500 PAs I would be strongly against signing Donaldson.

In that scenario I would rather see the Braves spend $20M+ on a guy for LF. Cutch would look good in LF, for example.

 

[nsacpi]

If Camargo is a 2-3 win guy at 3B, I would be strongly against paying Donaldson $25M-$30M. If Riley posts a .900 OPS in AA/AAA over 500 PAs I would be strongly against signing Donaldson.

In that scenario I would rather see the Braves spend $20M+ on a guy for LF. Cutch would look good in LF, for example.

Right now the priority is on replacing guys who were giving us less than 2 wins. Kemp being the main example. But at some point we are going to raise our ambitions. We're going to try and move some 2 win guys for more productive replacements. So while a 2-3 win Camargo would be a pleasant surprise, I don't think it would rule out trying for something even better at third. We are going to have the flexibility to be bold next off-season.

 

[Enscheff]

Right now the priority is on replacing guys who were giving us less than 2 wins. Kemp being the main example. But at some point we are going to raise our ambitions. We're going to try and move some 2 win guys for more productive replacements. So while a 2-3 win Camargo would be a pleasant surprise, I don't think it would rule out trying for something even better at third. We are going to have the flexibility to be bold next off-season.

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that if Camargo is producing 3 wins for league minimum, the Braves will have plenty of positions projected for much worse than 3 wins. They will be able to spend loads of cash to significantly upgrade those positions.

This roster isn't exactly the Houston Astros, and won't be for quite some time. The Braves are in no position to thumb their noses at a 3 win player making league minimum and thinking they need to spend resources upgrading that position.

 

[DontStopTheChop]

Right now the priority is on replacing guys who were giving us less than 2 wins. Kemp being the main example. But at some point we are going to raise our ambitions. We're going to try and move some 2 win guys for more productive replacements. So while a 2-3 win Camargo would be a pleasant surprise, I don't think it would rule out trying for something even better at third. We are going to have the flexibility to be bold next off-season.

If Camargo becomes a 3 win player then he going to be our starting 3b. In 2017, there were only 10 other players that put up a 3 WAR or higher at 3b according to FanGraphs. 9 in 2016. 10 in 2015. And of those who did produce a higher war, which of them would realistically be available via trade or would hit the open market for us to acquire? You see the point.

It would completely surprise me to see Camargo develop into a 3 WAR player but if he does, there would be no reason to think about an upgrade there. If our worst need is upgrading a 3 WAR 3B then we're likely going favorites to win the World Series.