Don't look now, but....
- Thread starter JCarbo76
- Start date
JohnAdcox
Brian Jordan's New BFF
We should have drafted pitching.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I don't think anyone thought Aybar would be as lousy as he was and the offense was miserable early on. Inciarte was injured and Jace Peterson was in Gwinnett. While his defensive issues are very real, Kemp puts a consistent bat in the line-up that is considerably better than what he replaced. This team still isn't brimming with talent, but a lot of guys came through in the second half and the bullpen finally shook out.
The Braves have been winning because of the offense (in spite of weak pitching).
If the pitching gets better, and the offense stays similar, then 40-40 could jump to 50-30 or 53 - 27 (or playoff worthy)
I think the offense is where it could maintain next year. I hope they set the lineup tonight to be...
Inciarte
Dansby
Freeman
Kemp
Markakis
Adonis
Tyler
Peterson
That is a very similar lineup to what we will have next year (1-6) with possible upgrades at 7&8.
If the pitching gets better, and the offense stays similar, then 40-40 could jump to 50-30 or 53 - 27 (or playoff worthy)
I think the offense is where it could maintain next year. I hope they set the lineup tonight to be...
Inciarte
Dansby
Freeman
Kemp
Markakis
Adonis
Tyler
Peterson
That is a very similar lineup to what we will have next year (1-6) with possible upgrades at 7&8.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
At some point Albies will be in there and will probably outperform Jace.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I still think Neck will be traded.
Nerfherders
Well-known member
48-46 since June 14th.
2nd half WRC+
Inciarte 132
Garica 108
Freeman 183
Kemp 124 (with Braves)
Markakis 115
Flowers 115
Peterson 92
Swanson 103
Inciarte and Freeman will have yuge regressions and Flowers some as well. I don't see obvious regression with the rest of the lineup though.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Swanson has significantly out-performed his major league equivalents from AA. Peterson has significantly out-performed his career major league numbers from the first half of this year and last year. Markakis has significantly out-performed his first half numbers and also out-performed his overall numbers from 2013-2015. Ditto for Kemp. Garcia is the only one with a decent chance of sustaining his second half offensive numbers, and even in his case I think the most likely outcome is a modest amount of regression. Taken as a group, there is a strong likelihood of significant regression next year. We won't be crap but we are not nearly as good on a sustainable basis as the second half numbers.
Swanson is also a 22 year old college player who played in the SEC. I don't think expecting a league average hitter is asking too much.
Peterson has actually hit better in the 1st half this year than he has in the 2nd half this season.
Markakis had a WRC+ of 106 in 2014 and 2015. I wouldn't call 115 significantly out performing 106 but you are right that he likely gets back to that level next year.
Kemp was in San Diego which can have an effect on hitters. His last 3 years in LA he had WRC+'s of 145, 104, and 141. The big question with him was him being able to get his BB rate back up. I see no reason Kemp can't sustain what he's done here
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The second half performance moves the needle by maybe 2 wins when it comes to my expectations for 2017. So I think now we are a 78 win team rather than a 76 win team. Something like that. I don't think we currently project as a .500 team (even assuming we pick up a 2 win catcher and a couple 2 win starting pitchers).
a couple of 2 win starting pitchers would do it imo. starting pitching is the teams big weakness right now.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
You (and many others) make way too much out of Swanson's AA numbers. He played in one of the worst parks for hitters in all of MiLB.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
I think Neck's new power is for real. It can take quite a while for the power part of the game to come back after surgery like he had. So I actually think he will perform right around what he's been doing. But I still think he's traded and we will have a slight upgrade when he's gone. Don't know if internal or not but I do think we will get an upgrade. Peterson has outperformed his MLB stats but he hasn't had much of an MLB body of work to out perform as a really young player, and most of those terrible stats were most certainly due to his nagging wrist injury last year that he dealt with pretty much the whole time. Before the injury he was playing well in line with what we see. But again, I still see Albies coming up eventually and being an upgrade even at Peterson's best. I hope that with a catcher addition to either replace or platoon with Flowers, we may see a slight upgrade... Or at least not see regression. I think Swanson is for real... His approach looks so advanced... I think he just got tired at AA and the call up rejuvenated him. Agreed on Freeman and Inciarte... No way those guys can keep it up, but they will still be elite players. I think this team can easily contend for a wild card spot if we make some decent off season moves without mortgaging the future and if the pitching can take a step forward.
I disagree. The only obvious regression candidates from their 2nd half production I see are Freeman and Inciarte. Freeman only because it is unrealistic for any hitter to produce an 1.100, and Inciarte because his 2nd half hitting has been fueled by a ludicrous .400 BABIP and .367 BABIP vs LHers. When Inciarte loses 60 points off his BABIP vs LHers, he will be back around his career line next year.
Kemp seems to have reverted back to his .800+ OPS ways. Markakis should still be the .750 hitter he has been in Atlanta. Flowers is hitting a bit over his head, but the addition of a guy like Mac or Castro should offset any slipping of the position overall. Adonis should be replaced, and his replacement will probably hit at least as well and should play significantly better defense, which should be a gain overall at 3B. Albies will be replacing Peterson at 2B. And Swanson is probably the most likely player on the roster to improve overall, even though his BABIP of .370 is likely to come down quite a bit...but he should improve his K rate to help make up for it.
Obviously this isn't suddenly one of the best offenses in the NL, but they should be in the upper half. Depending on how much the pitching is improved the Braves should be a 75-80 win team next year. Anyone predicting legit playoff contention is out of touch with reality and is setting themselves up for serious disappointment.
While it's unrealistic to expect Freeman and Inciarte to continue their 2nd half pace, it's not unrealistic at all to expect them to continue their overall pace this year. So while the 2nd half may be a bit misleading, the 1st half was as well.
Inciarte's .367 BABIP vs LHers is over the entire 2016 season. That unsustainable number is directly fueling his success against LHers, and is why folks like to think he is suddenly playable vs LHers. His career BABIP vs LHers, including this unsustainable lucky season, is .307. When he regresses back to that number he will regress back towards his career .650 OPS vs LHers.
As a point of reference, Ichiro's career BABIP is .340, and he is the ultimate low power speedy hitter of our time.
He will be a leadoff option vs RHers in 2017, but vs LHers he either needs to be benched or at the very least moved down the lineup.
Horsehide Harry
<B>Mr. Free Trade</B>
Freeman is likely experiencing a career year and will hopefully sustain his overall level of play through next year and several years after that.
Inciarte probably levels off and maybe declines a bit due to the factors Enscheff has pointed out.
Flowers is probably in line for a big regression but not a 2015-2016 AJP offensive regression.
No outside help that is likely, looks to be offensively significantly better than Garcia. Defense is another matter.
Kemp is probably 50/50 at this point to improve/decline with age (playing at 32) fighting against new found commitment and happiness.
Markakis almost certainly will decline because of age (playing at 33). The question is: How much?
A full season of Swanson will almost certainly be better than a mixed season of Aybar/others/Swanson.
A mixed season of Albies/Jace will probably be better than a mixed season of Jace/others but will be influenced by Albies injury return and any progress/regression of Jace.
If Mallex gets to play enough, he will probably be better than he was this year.
Likely Just as good: Freeman, Inciarte
Probably Just as good: Kemp, Garcia
Better: Swanson, Smith(but will it make a difference)
Probably Better: Albies/Jace
Worse: Markakis, Flowers
Inciarte probably levels off and maybe declines a bit due to the factors Enscheff has pointed out.
Flowers is probably in line for a big regression but not a 2015-2016 AJP offensive regression.
No outside help that is likely, looks to be offensively significantly better than Garcia. Defense is another matter.
Kemp is probably 50/50 at this point to improve/decline with age (playing at 32) fighting against new found commitment and happiness.
Markakis almost certainly will decline because of age (playing at 33). The question is: How much?
A full season of Swanson will almost certainly be better than a mixed season of Aybar/others/Swanson.
A mixed season of Albies/Jace will probably be better than a mixed season of Jace/others but will be influenced by Albies injury return and any progress/regression of Jace.
If Mallex gets to play enough, he will probably be better than he was this year.
Likely Just as good: Freeman, Inciarte
Probably Just as good: Kemp, Garcia
Better: Swanson, Smith(but will it make a difference)
Probably Better: Albies/Jace
Worse: Markakis, Flowers