DRAFT IN PROGRESS THREAD ... What's past is preamble

[zbhargrove]

Per Baseball Prospectus:

"I would be surprised by this, if I hadn't heard this for a while. That being said, this is not a top-three pick for me. He has a plus fastball and shows an above-average slider, and he will show a decent change as well. I don't think he has a ton of upside, however, and they pass on guys like Groome, Pint and Ray who do. Again, this is a money saver, but again, you could have taken a better player and saved. Huh."

Cool... you found one publication that agrees with you and ignore all of the experts who say he's got big upside.

 

[mqt]

My biggest gripe is the lack of high upside bats after our first 4 picks. We instead took a reliever at 80 and another potential high upside arm in round 4. Before our run on seniors, I would have liked to get a couple high upside hitters like Quinn. Alas, it didn't happen. We should have saved a bit of money yesterday, so I hope to see a couple risky signs with upside today.

I suspect we will see that. The bonus slots yesterday were too valuable to risk.

 

[weso1]

I would take the combo of Anderson and Wentz over any single player that went in the first round outside of Senzel.

 

[Deester11]

I would take the combo of Anderson and Wentz over any single player that went in the first round outside of Senzel.

Why is this missed so much? Absolutely. Sprinkle Muller in there and I don't the issue, especially on the first day. Now the second day, I think there are some head scratchers. I'm hoping for a stab at a risky signing.

 

[dak]

Now the second day, I think there are some head scratchers. I'm hoping for a stab at a risky signing.

Yeah, I'm hoping we'll see that the run on college seniors is a play to do something bigger today (or to meet bonus demands for Wentz and Muller). The pick that I struggle with the most is Harrington at 80. We traded Barker for the 76th pick, and pick someone who realistically has a 50% chance of becoming Barker at 80? Clearly the Braves like Harrington to be more than he appears to be on the surface, but it just doesn't seem to fit with their overall upside approach.

 

[mqt]

Yeah, I'm hoping we'll see that the run on college seniors is a play to do something bigger today (or to meet bonus demands for Wentz and Muller). The pick that I struggle with the most is Harrington at 80. We traded Barker for the 76th pick, and pick someone who realistically has a 50% chance of becoming Barker at 80? Clearly the Braves like Harrington to be more than he appears to be on the surface, but it just doesn't seem to fit with their overall upside approach.

We traded Barker for the roughly $1 million that comes with the 76th slot. Taking a guy like Harrington at 80 would seemingly fit the plan as long as he doesn't command the full bonus for that slot. If he does in fact sign for full slot money or is over slot, I'm as confused as you are.

 

[CJ9]

We traded Barker for the roughly $1 million that comes with the 76th slot. Taking a guy like Harrington at 80 would seemingly fit the plan as long as he doesn't command the full bonus for that slot. If he does in fact sign for full slot money or is over slot, I'm as confused as you are.

If Harrington is below slot like we all expect, that would mean we made signability picks in rounds 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10.

 

[50PoundHead]

My biggest gripe is the lack of high upside bats after our first 4 picks. We instead took a reliever at 80 and another potential high upside arm in round 4. Before our run on seniors, I would have liked to get a couple high upside hitters like Quinn. Alas, it didn't happen. We should have saved a bit of money yesterday, so I hope to see a couple risky signs with upside today.

Your point is the puzzler of the draft for me. I get the first day strategy, but I wonder about the Harrington and Wilson picks. Seems that there were some bats on the board that would have made sense at that point.

 

[nsacpi]

There were a couple interesting HS bats (Nolan Jones and Joe Rizzo) we could have taken when we took Wentz and Muller. We also had the option of taking a very good college pitcher (Logan Shore) when we took Muller. But we went for the Teutonic Duo.

It will be interesting to see how the A's college trio of Puk, Jefferies and Shore do against our HS trio.

As a general proposition, if you look at the data for players we have taken from the end of round 1 to the end of round 3, the yield on HS hitters and college pitchers taken has been significantly better than the yield on HS pitchers. But we love taking HS pitchers in that part of the draft. Fulenchek! Sorry I have a funny way of sneezing.

 

[PurpleBrave]

What? Pretty much all the major people gave us a great review on day 1. You're just making crap up. Not to mention about how so many links and positive vibes from the experts have been shared in this thread specifically. So if the highest you've seen is a B... You haven't read any of this thread. But hey... Whatever suits your bias best.

It was an honest question. I want an opinion from someone besides Biased Bill the Braves fan on twitter. I found someone on BA that really liked it. No reason to slam me or get offensive. You must be in the front office or a scout. I welcome the knowledge, but don't take things so personally.

 

[rico43]

My biggest gripe is the lack of high upside bats after our first 4 picks. We instead took a reliever at 80 and another potential high upside arm in round 4. Before our run on seniors, I would have liked to get a couple high upside hitters like Quinn. Alas, it didn't happen. We should have saved a bit of money yesterday, so I hope to see a couple risky signs with upside today.

that is the plan. That was always the plan.

 

[rico43]

If Harrington is below slot like we all expect, that would mean we made signability picks in rounds 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10.

Many teams played the draft the same way. The signing bonus rules change beginning with the 10th round.

 

[rico43]

I quoted the stats here earlier, but there needs to be a valid question put to the Braves about looking at Muller as a hitter in the Riley/Simmons vein. His numbers are sick and at 6-7, 245, I got to wonder what he will grow into.

 

[Heyward]

I quoted the stats here earlier, but there needs to be a valid question put to the Braves about looking at Muller as a hitter in the Riley/Simmons vein. His numbers are sick and at 6-7, 245, I got to wonder what he will grow into.

His pitching numbers are even more impressive.

 

[clvclv]

If Harrington is below slot like we all expect, that would mean we made signability picks in rounds 3, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9 and 10.

What puzzles me is why no one seems to understand the reason the players drafted yesterday were taken. The gamble you take in "floating" the guys we wound up with picks #40 and #44 is that someone doesn't sign and you lose ANY pool money. We have absolutely no clue how much Anderson supposedly agreed to sign for (and won't until June 23rd), but let's just GUESS that it's $4.5 million. That only saves $2,010,800 to be split between the lower picks. If you split that in half between Wentz and Muller, that's $1,005,400 above slot for each.

Wentz - $2,622,200

Muller - $2,465,100

IF Wentz had been picked where MLB Pipeline had him ranked (#16), his slot value would have been $2,660,800. ESPN had him at #11, which would have been $3,286,700.

We're already asking him to sign under-slot if you go by those rankings. If we don't sign EVERY other player drafted in the first ten rounds, we can't even afford to do that if they all agree to slot value - even with savings from Anderson. Unless we want the #41 pick in next years draft more than we want him, you have no choice other than to take guys that we KNOW we'll sign before today. If you don't - and lose Wentz' slot dollars - you may not get Muller or Cumberland either.

The Astros lost two players the same way when they tried to float Jacob Nix in 2014. When they didn't like the medicals and he wouldn't rework the numbers he agreed to prior to the draft, it cost them Nix AND Brady Aiken.

 

[mqt]

I think the rumor was that Wentz wanted top 10 money. That's why people were off base with suggesting we could take Horn all of yesterday. We can maybe gamble today since it won't affect our ability to sign our top 4 picks, but each of our top 3 picks will be highly expensive, and with Cumberland being a sophomore, I doubt he's under slot and might be over.

 

[nsacpi]

It seems likely from yesterday's picks that the money saved on Anderson will not be enough to pay Wentz and Muller. So we also picked a bunch of college seniors to generate additional dough to sign Wentz and Muller. The question is whether there is enough to also go after another highly rated player with today's selections.

 

[KB21]

I think some need a refresher on the Paul Snyder/Bill Wight drafting philosophy, which is what the Braves have gone back to after abandoning that philosophy under Frank Wren. If the arm and the bat are rated equal, you take the arm. You should only take the bat when the arm is rated lower. There was not a hitting prospect available that was rated higher than either Joey Wentz or Kyle Muller when the Braves took them.

Joey Wentz was the #14 player on Perfect Game's draft board. Joe Rizzo was #49. Tell me, how much sense does it make to take Joe Rizzo over Joey Wentz? Kyle Muller was #48 on PG's board and #25 on BA's board. Joe Rizzo was #40 on BA's board.

Just for good measure, the #1 overall pick was the #11 player on PG's board. Ian Anderson was #9 on PGs board.

Here is a snippet from PG's write up on Ian Anderson:

Arguably one of the top arms and most consistent performers on the summer circuit last year, Anderson has been regarded as one of the best and has continued to climb the Perfect Game rankings to his current No. 5 spot in 2016. Listed at a long and lean 6-foot-3, 170-pounds according to his profile page, Anderson exudes projectability, especially as he continues to fill out with physical strength strength in both his upper and lower halves.

The ability to throw as hard as he does now given his physical stature points to how sound his mechanics are with solid incorporation of his lower half, as well as just how fast and loose his right arm truly is. And on top of the consistent velocity, Anderson is able to generate late sinking life to his fastball to the bottom of the zone courtesy of his high arm slot and excellent extension out front.

Anderson’s fastball is just the tip of the iceberg however as both of his off-speed pitches will show above average at present, and it wouldn’t be too much of a stretch of the imagination for them to project as such long term. His curveball ranks among the best in the 2016 high school crop as it’s an upper-70s offering with sharp, late bite to the bottom of the zone that garners swings and misses with tight spin out of his hand. Though he didn’t show his changeup at the National Showcase last June, Anderson did feature the potential plus offering throughout the circuit season, and the low- to mid-80s pitch is capable of eliciting empty swings with late diving life.

When we talk about a Northeast prep arm words such as “fresh” and “raw” are usually thrown around. And while the right arm on the upstate New York native is still relatively fresh with limited innings, he’s as far away from being raw as a high school pitcher can be and that’s something scouts have most definitely taken note of. (JB)

Joey Wentz:

At 6-foot-5, 210-pounds, Wentz has an ideal pitcher's frame and is an above average athlete as well. Like his Kansas neighbor Riley Pint (the two live approximately 10 miles apart), Wentz decided to skip his final season of high school basketball this winter to concentrate on baseball workouts.

He's seen his velocity jump from the upper-80s last spring to being consistently in the low-90s this spring and topping out frequently at 94-95 mph. His curveball has developed into a potential plus pitch in the mid-70s with a big power break, while his changeup also shows some present promise.

Most impressively, Wentz has used his athleticism and a smooth, low energy delivery to consistently show outstanding command of all his pitches. There are a surprising number of pitchers around the country who can work in the low-90s and touch 95 mph, but very few who can do it with present command and the ability to repeat a polished low effort delivery. There are even fewer who happen to be 6-foot-5 lefthanders. (DR)

 

[KB21]

What puzzles me is why no one seems to understand the reason the players drafted yesterday were taken. The gamble you take in "floating" the guys we wound up with picks #40 and #44 is that someone doesn't sign and you lose ANY pool money. We have absolutely no clue how much Anderson supposedly agreed to sign for (and won't until June 23rd), but let's just GUESS that it's $4.5 million. That only saves $2,010,800 to be split between the lower picks. If you split that in half between Wentz and Muller, that's $1,005,400 above slot for each.

Wentz - $2,622,200
Muller - $2,465,100

IF Wentz had been picked where MLB Pipeline had him ranked (#16), his slot value would have been $2,660,800. ESPN had him at #11, which would have been $3,286,700.

We're already asking him to sign under-slot if you go by those rankings. If we don't sign EVERY other player drafted in the first ten rounds, we can't even afford to do that if they all agree to slot value - even with savings from Anderson. Unless we want the #41 pick in next years draft more than we want him, you have no choice other than to take guys that we KNOW we'll sign before today. If you don't - and lose Wentz' slot dollars - you may not get Muller or Cumberland either.

The Astros lost two players the same way when they tried to float Jacob Nix in 2014. When they didn't like the medicals and he wouldn't rework the numbers he agreed to prior to the draft, it cost them Nix AND Brady Aiken.

The Braves had this worked out before they did this. The Braves have a better scouting staff than Jeff Lunhow and the Astros, and they will not be caught with their pants down. The Braves prepared for this, and I'm betting they had an agreement in principle with the players before they drafted them.

 

[dak]

These are just VERY rough guesstimates of where the Braves may be at with their pool . . .

Braves pool plus 5%: $13,985,580

Anderson: $4,000,000

Wentz: $3,400,000

Muller: $2,500,000

Cumberland: $840,000

Harrington: $790,000

Wilson: $550,000

Walker: $410,000

5 college Seniors: $500,000

Total spent: $13 million-ish

Remaining $1 million-ish