His last outing he got 16. Do you feel better now?
DRAFT IN PROGRESS THREAD ... What's past is preamble
- Thread starter rico43
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His last outing he got 16. Do you feel better now?
Oh. Good Grief. It is a State Tournament Game against one of the best HS Teams around. He dominated!!!!
Southcack77
Well-known member
I think the idea that the Braves were going to get a bunch of "impact" bats out of this draft was a little unrealistic. From everything I've read about the bats in this draft, they were mostly projected to several years away from filling into roles as average major leaguers.
I do not think picking guys with a chance to be average major leaguers really does much for the major league club or the minor league clubs. Average major leaguers are not that expensive to acquire. Low upside hitting prospects aren't valued that highly in trades.
I think their plan for this draft was very sensible given there were very few hitting prospects who profiled with the upside of all star caliber players. I feel like each of the arms they drafted have an upside of getting there based on what the write ups I have seen on them.
They will need to get some hitting from somewhere, but I think it was not going to realistically be put to rights through this draft. I think they will figure out another way. And quite honestly, they are not particularly close to contending any time soon in my view, so there is no reason to try and draft like they are. If they want to contend next year they would have to open up their wallet and start trading a lot of these guys in the system. It's not realistic that they are going to draft their way into it any time soon.
striker42
Well-known member
Saying he has a middle of the rotation ceiling is neither hate nor wild conjecture. At least, no more wild than saying he can be an ace.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I appreciate the sarcasm, but I think it probably did go to plan. I don't think they went into the draft focused on particular players dropping. I think they knew that there was a pool of 5-10 guys that they would want to take if they did drop and were content to pick their favorite of whoever was there. I am pretty sure it was about the raw talent rather than a particular guy or a particular position.
I'm sure they had their hopes about who it would be, but it was always going to be about how the draft came to them.
I have no way of knowing whether their pick at #3 is who they would have taken if they didn't have any extra picks. For all I know it could have been. Who knows?
Southcack77
Well-known member
He's a high school kid with a lot of room to develop. Putting a middling ceiling on him is pretty much conjecture. Plenty of guys with mid 90s fast balls and good complimentary pitchers are all stars and #1 or #2 starters. It is ultimately a development question. It is fair to say that he, like all pitching prospects -- especially high school kids -- has a good chance to never make it. But ceiling? That's some butt talking.
Of course, when you say that you also don't take into account the ceilings and bust possibilities of the alternative. They are just as high almost certainly.
Unfortunately, this stuff is just starting for the anti-Ian crowd. If Anderson gets off to a slow start at the GCL(or Danville) and either Ray or Lewis starts off hot we're never going to hear the end of it. I can hear it now. "The FO sucks and we're doomed forever". "I told you all we should have picked Ray/Lewis ". "Coppella needs to be fired".
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Don't forget about the "We need to hire Billy Beane or one of his minions" that we will inevitably hear.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
The high upside bat everyone is wanting will be signed in the J2 signing period next month. Atlanta will also likely have their choice in the 2017 draft of an elite high school bat in Mark Vientos or an elite college bat in JJ Schwartz. Vientos has drawn comparisons to Manny Machado.
If it were me, I'd go with Vientos and his upside, as I feel Schwartz and KJ Harrison are not quite the college bats that Seth Beer and Luken Baker are.
If it were me, I'd go with Vientos and his upside, as I feel Schwartz and KJ Harrison are not quite the college bats that Seth Beer and Luken Baker are.
striker42
Well-known member
Given a broad enough construction of the word "ceiling" you could say a 20th round catcher has an ace ceiling.
I put his realistic ceiling at middle of the rotation because he's gonna require a good bit to break in his favor to be an ace and I see that as very unlikely.
Conversely, I see him as relatively low risk for a prep pitcher. The first thing touted is his pitchability and he has good command.
I don't hate that we got Anderson. I wish we had a hundred more just like him. I just don't think he was worth the third pick. That's not terribly controversial. Anderson's agent doesn't think he's worth that pick (see prep pitcher committed to Vandy signing way under slot).
As a Florida fan, I feel like it's important for me to get this out of the way. Schwarz should not be a 1-1 candidate next year. Numbers have significantly dipped this season, and he's barely catching this year. There are rumors he'll be the full time 1B next year.
His name keeps being brought up because it's a position of need and there aren't many big time college bats as of now that are in the 1-1 conversation, but Schwarz isn't going to be in the conversation there.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
Here is what Kiley McDaniel said about Mark Vientos in an article he did prior to leaving Fangraphs for the Braves:
The Braves will be signing Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez next month, so by this time next year, Atlanta may have three of the best 17 year old players in the world in their system.
The Braves will be signing Kevin Maitan and Abraham Gutierrez next month, so by this time next year, Atlanta may have three of the best 17 year old players in the world in their system.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
I'm glad he pushes that nonsense aside and lets the scouts do their work during the draft.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Klaus had Anderson 7 over all. In a draft with a lot of guys in a similar rank.
I wish we had a college bat too. But it seems clear our team thought better. Last years draft looks solid now. Have to give them the benefit of the doubt on this
I wish we had a college bat too. But it seems clear our team thought better. Last years draft looks solid now. Have to give them the benefit of the doubt on this
This seems to always be an issue around here, and has absolutely nothing to do with defending the front office. The reason the farm system was so devoid of talent was the previous regime's focus on high-floor guys - players who never projected to be much more than utility infielders/4th or 5th OFs/MOR to back-end SPs. So the new group takes over and immediately begins stocking up on high-ceiling talent who at least have a shot at becoming better than average major league ballplayers, several who even have star upside. Are some of them going to reach their ceilings? Hopefully. Some will become average or better at their positions. Some will absolutely bust, no question. The problem that so many of those who criticize every single move refuse to see is that you can't develop stars if you don't gamble on players with chances they'll bust.
Every legitimate pundit out there agreed on one thing about this draft class - there were NO impact bats that were remotely close to being big league ready. Period. There were questions about every one of the bats - including Senzel, Ray, and Lewis. Not a single one of those pundits projected any of those guys to be stars. So many people love to complain that we have very little "elite" talent in the system, yet they're unable to understand that none of those guys would have changed that one bit. Certainly not soon, and definitely not without a lot of luck. Senzel might hit for average power as a 3B for the Reds, but only because he'll be hitting in a bandbox. If Ray turned into a 15 HR LF, would he scare anyone hitting behind Freeman? Not likely. Could Lewis turn into a 20-25 HR threat? Sure. Apparently we weren't the organization that doesn't believe he won't be that any time soon.
Yes, we desperately need a couple of impact bats, but the only way we're getting them is to sign Cespedes or Desmond this winter or trade pitching to get them. There wasn't a single hitter available in this draft that would change that, like it or not.
So what do you do to try to get "elite" talent? Keep drafting the players with the highest ceilings and hope as many of them work out as possible. You then package the "excess" to obtain elite talent where you have holes.
Callis and Mayo had Anderson (#13 - with helium), Wentz (#16), Muller (#24), and Cumberland (#69) on their board before the draft. According to them, we got 3 of the 24 best players available. Law had both Anderson and Wentz in his 11 best players available. Seems pretty successful to me.
Is it a sure thing we're getting Gutierrez? I haven't heard that.
The only way I trade Julio is if a player like Bregman is the return. A nearly sure fire impact player at a position of need who is under team control for 5+ years. No package of lower level prospects gets it done.
I would not be willing to push the window for being competitive back even one more year, so the return for Julio MUST be ready to make an impact the same time Swanson and Albies reach Atlanta.
I would not be willing to push the window for being competitive back even one more year, so the return for Julio MUST be ready to make an impact the same time Swanson and Albies reach Atlanta.
KB21
Where's My Cup of Coffee?
I'd rather deal with Boston and get Moncada and Benitendi. I'm not sure Bregman can handle 3B long term defensively, and he would be behind Swanson and Albies in the MIF. If our scouts think he can handle 3B full time, then sure. Deal Teheran and Viz to Houston for Alex Bregman, Kyle Tucker, and Daz Cameron.