Economics Thread
- Thread starter sturg33
- Start date
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Because there is a lot of volatility in the monthly numbers. July down 3k, August down 20K, September up 25K, October down 1K, November up 28K
chop2chip
Well-known member
God forbid you take a 2 month vacation
Timestamps were almost exatly the same so I suspect he saw and decided not to respond.
But I've been wrong before.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Ok. Another one to bookmark and check on when the December and January numbers roll around.
Agreed - 100%.
Winter months are bleak so a positive figure for November with the shock to the system is absolutely a positive sign. Especially when you couple that with its most likely actual Americans taking these good paying jobs.
chop2chip
Well-known member
Debatable
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
The winter months sure are bleak for construction work. That's why the BLS seasonally adjusts the data.
The not-seasonally-adjusted change in construction employment in November was -67,000. After seasonal adjustment it turned into a +28,000. The seasonal adjustment is based on the pattern of the past 10 years. This November happens to have been one of the warmest on record with a bit less precipitation than usual, thangs that help make the seasonally adjusted construction numbers look better than they really are.
My closest friend is in Stucco - Well aware.
But when you're in an environment where illegals are afraid to leave their homes and employment is going up its EXACTLY the type of people the Trump admin wants to get these jobs.
Illegals are afraid to show up to work. Construction is still happening. Who is showing up to job sites?
Its hte same story with everything when you look at total job losses. We know illegals and federal workers are losing their jobs and its a tremendous thing.
My buddy is crazy busy as well but to be fair he has been absurdly busy for 6 years now.
The best thing though - AMERICANS are now doing these jobs and these jobs pay well.
Tapate50
Well-known member
I think there’s still heavy heavy demand for the better operations. It’s the day labor ones that get marginalized
Yup - and as the bigger shops are busy wiht larger jobs or unionized jobs the smaller work goes to the smaller shops who are now staffing AMERICANS.
WHat a great day in the country!
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
Be forewarned, part of this is bitterness by me involving US stocks but here goes nothing anyway:
US stock and bond markets have been screaming at you since October that in considering GDP growth next year, you'll likely have to factor in a good bit of scale back in the AI project in the US.
Oracle ruined a good thing going on here with the circular investment firing squad and US tech is likely to pay for it dearly next year. The only question in the room left is is this midterm analog 18/22 esque or will we play out something similar to early 2025 again in markets?
Slightly more serious, once unemployment crosses 4.5% (I believe?), it usually continues for a while. Trump is NOT special here, he likely will deal with the same thing.
US stock and bond markets have been screaming at you since October that in considering GDP growth next year, you'll likely have to factor in a good bit of scale back in the AI project in the US.
Oracle ruined a good thing going on here with the circular investment firing squad and US tech is likely to pay for it dearly next year. The only question in the room left is is this midterm analog 18/22 esque or will we play out something similar to early 2025 again in markets?
Slightly more serious, once unemployment crosses 4.5% (I believe?), it usually continues for a while. Trump is NOT special here, he likely will deal with the same thing.