Economics Thread

sturg33 said:
I don't know what you're seeing but this economy sucks. The job market is horrible and prices are at record highs
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Prices are ALWAYS at record highs. Literally ALWAYS.

What I'm seeing is costs going down for the middle class while their wages are going up. Are you saying these things aren't happening?

This ship doesn't turn around immediately.
 
thethe said:
Going to get real quiet in here soon.

Nobody wants to talk about reduced prices in totality for consumers or their higher wages. Nobody wants to talk about roaring markets because they see the future and how great it’s going to be. Next year nobody will talk economics.
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Let's get real. Inflation was higher than it would have been absent the tariffs. There is no real argument about that. We can quibble about magnitudes. But prices are higher than they would have otherwise been. And because of that real incomes are lower than they would have otherwise been.
 
acesfull86 said:
The marching orders were given…it’s the Biden strategy of pretending the economy is great and we’re all supposed to believe are lying eye
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People paying less monthly costs while also seeing a jump in their real wages is a fantastic thing and people are starting to feel it and its bleeding through the polling.
 
nsacpi said:
Let's get real. Inflation was higher than it would have been absent the tariffs. There is no real argument about that. We can quibble about magnitudes. But prices are higher than they would have otherwise been. And because of that real incomes are lower than they would have otherwise been.
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We say that but there is simply limited evidence prices are rising at all outside of baked in inflation.

Overall costs to consumers are down while they are making more money. Not sure how that can be denied.
 
thethe said:
We say that but there is simply limited evidence prices are rising at all outside of baked in inflation.

Overall costs to consumers are down while they are making more money. Not sure how that can be denied.
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The evidence is always going to be "limited" because we don't get to rerun history with and without tariffs to see what the difference was. But we have tools that allow us to infer what inflation would have been without the tariffs. I put up data a couple days ago on how core inflation is going to be higher in 2025 than was forecast during 2024.
 
sturg33 said:
I ain't you're celebrating the massive consumer spending increase in Healthcare?

Ok
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I already caveated that and why GDP is often times a misleading figure.

I have noted decreased overall costs to the middle class while getting the largest real wage increase in 5 years.

Things to celebrate.

Hey it doesn't hurt our portfolios are at all time highs too!
 
nsacpi said:
The evidence is always going to be "limited" because we don't get to rerun history with and without tariffs to see what the difference was. But we have tools that allow us to infer what inflation would have been without the tariffs. I put up data a couple days ago on how core inflation is going to be higher in 2025 than was forecast during 2024.
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A comparison to forecast is silly because of how many drivers you have to isolate to explain.

FP&A is heavily budget vs actual and its never a simple answer.
 
Man cuts off foot. Vitals are stable. Thethe - “oh so now they’re gonna make the argument that the man is healthy, but he’d be even better off if hadn’t cut off his foot! Derp”
 
acesfull86 said:
Man cuts off foot. Vitals are stable. Thethe - “oh so now they’re gonna make the argument that the man is healthy, but he’d be even better off if hadn’t cut off his foot! Derp”
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The US economy is now the equivalent of a one armed man?

Thats your evaluation of the performance towards the end of the year.
 
acesfull86 said:
What is ridiculous? Trump enacted tariffs…the effects of the tariffs were isolated and evaluated…the overwhelming consensus is that they were a net negative. What in that story do you not accept?
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Its very simple to isolate each policy and evaluate its unijque impact.

The economic experts are telling us thats the case. The same ones that said the 2025 economy was going to crash becasue of tariffs!
 
thethe said:
The US economy is now the equivalent of a one armed man?

Thats your evaluation of the performance towards the end of the year.
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One foot, but yes. This economy would undoubtedly be better if not for tariffs. Because tariffs are a net negative on the economy.
 
acesfull86 said:
One foot, but yes. This economy would undoubtedly be better if not for tariffs. Because tariffs are a net negative on the economy.
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Yes - We are back to sure the economy didn't tank like I predicted because of tariffs but it would be even better without it.

I called that this was going to happen 6 months ago.
 
acesfull86 said:
What is ridiculous? Trump enacted tariffs…the effects of the tariffs were isolated and evaluated…the overwhelming consensus is that they were a net negative. What in that story do you not accept?
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The fact that our economy was booming tells me it is ridiculous. If our manufacturing was what you said it was we wouldn't have been doing great.

Most of the world went into the deep end in 2020 as well. I guess Trump's tariffs did that too.
 
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