Economics Thread

thethe said:
Lot of forces affect markets as well. Think there is a large bullish factor becusss it will be built in the US because we have leadership that does things to put American first. Tariffs are one of those tools.
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These data centers are being built around the world.
 
Went from “people paying less monthly costs while also seeing a jump in their real wages is a fantastic thing” and “I have noted decreased overall costs to the middle class while getting the largest real wage increase in 5 years” to “the middle class is getting killed” in no time.
 
All I'm going to say on this Christmas Eve involving US markets at least is that I'm old enough to remember what happened the last time the Nasdaq went 3 straight on 20%+ years a mere 3 short years ago the year after the 3rd year.

Even if you're going to be like "blasphemy! Biden is the worst president evah, it won't happen again!" we also saw a very volatile midterm year in Trump v1.0 in 2018.

I don't think the odds are very good on 2026 being a trip to the land of milk and honey for markets either (I wouldn't call 2025 easy mode). There is probably going to be some kind of issue again and this time, unlike this year where half of the early year decline was on tariff fears and the other half was woe is me involving AI, will likely have a full focus on AI bubble fears, heck, there's even a full on Trump supporter I observe on X while lurking (mainly stock market focus) that is even in belief of this.

To ramble a bit further, I'm not totally sure how the above would play out yet. I THINK we end up seeing the Nasdaq erase the divergence with the S&P to end the worry that this future year is potentially 2022-esque, but until it does, the threat will continue to exist. If the divergence is erased, I think the S&P blows off into 7200-7400 and then the volatility starts in February next year. It will likely be a buyable dip, but still highly frustrating for many.
 
nsacpi said:
These data centers are being built around the world.
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Interesting article about such investment in India. By American companies.


Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, was striding across a stage in New Delhi, extolling his company’s $17.5 billion investment in artificial intelligence and the benefits it would bring to his native country’s 1.4 billion people. While he was speaking, Amazon made a rival announcement, promising to throw $35 billion into A.I.-driven projects across India.

A flood of money for data centers, cloud computing and other hardware has come to India. Two months before the near-simultaneous Microsoft-Amazon announcements, Google committed $15 billion to data centers in partnerships with two of India’s biggest conglomerates, the Adani Group and Bharti Airtel.

That $67.5 billion, to be spent over the next five years, is just the crest of a wave. A fourth American tech giant, Meta, is having a plant built near Google’s, as are India’s other biggest industrial houses, Reliance and Tata.

“This is going to be one of the largest single-sector investments that India’s ever seen,” said Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer at ASK Wealth Advisors in Mumbai.

These investments are vast in proportion to everything except for other A.I.-related investments. Trillions of dollars are at stake in this boom worldwide. In India, companies see a market with lots of room to run.

India hosts nearly 20 percent of the world’s data but only 3 percent of its storage. The United States has vastly more data centers than India, but India’s population, already the largest on the planet, is still growing, and its economy is expanding even faster.

“India is the largest consumer of data in the world, but with barely 5 percent of American data capacity,” Mr. Mukherjee said.

The enormous bets on India by Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta underscore the seemingly limitless reaches of the A.I. boom. President Trump stunned India with 50 percent tariffs this summer, casting a pall over the friendly and longstanding economic relationship between the countries. Negotiators from Washington and New Delhi are still trying to find some accommodation on trade. Yet artificial intelligence money plows ahead.
 
nsacpi said:
Interesting article about such investment in India. By American companies.


Satya Nadella, Microsoft’s chief executive, was striding across a stage in New Delhi, extolling his company’s $17.5 billion investment in artificial intelligence and the benefits it would bring to his native country’s 1.4 billion people. While he was speaking, Amazon made a rival announcement, promising to throw $35 billion into A.I.-driven projects across India.

A flood of money for data centers, cloud computing and other hardware has come to India. Two months before the near-simultaneous Microsoft-Amazon announcements, Google committed $15 billion to data centers in partnerships with two of India’s biggest conglomerates, the Adani Group and Bharti Airtel.

That $67.5 billion, to be spent over the next five years, is just the crest of a wave. A fourth American tech giant, Meta, is having a plant built near Google’s, as are India’s other biggest industrial houses, Reliance and Tata.

“This is going to be one of the largest single-sector investments that India’s ever seen,” said Somnath Mukherjee, chief investment officer at ASK Wealth Advisors in Mumbai.

These investments are vast in proportion to everything except for other A.I.-related investments. Trillions of dollars are at stake in this boom worldwide. In India, companies see a market with lots of room to run.

India hosts nearly 20 percent of the world’s data but only 3 percent of its storage. The United States has vastly more data centers than India, but India’s population, already the largest on the planet, is still growing, and its economy is expanding even faster.

“India is the largest consumer of data in the world, but with barely 5 percent of American data capacity,” Mr. Mukherjee said.

The enormous bets on India by Microsoft, Amazon, Google and Meta underscore the seemingly limitless reaches of the A.I. boom. President Trump stunned India with 50 percent tariffs this summer, casting a pall over the friendly and longstanding economic relationship between the countries. Negotiators from Washington and New Delhi are still trying to find some accommodation on trade. Yet artificial intelligence money plows ahead.
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Its fantastic - There can now be more jobs in the locals countries serving those countries with hands on jobs that pay well.

They can now stay in their own country and can safely remove the H1B1 work.
 
thethe said:
Its fantastic - There can now be more jobs in the locals countries serving those countries with hands on jobs that pay well.

They can now stay in their own country and can safely remove the H1B1 work.
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Companies like Nvidia and Google have major facilities all over the world. It won't be a problem for them working around a shortage of engineers. Can't say the same about smaller companies.
 
nsacpi said:
Companies like Nvidia and Google have major facilities all over the world. It won't be a problem for them working around a shortage of engineers. Can't say the same about smaller companies.
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Our native base with high IQs will catch up quickly. Soon we will have all the desired talent. Just have to make sure that the incentives don’t dissuade companies from hiring white men.
 
nsacpi said:
There are plenty of white male engineers and scientists. But not enough for the kind of economy we have.
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When the incentive system aligns over time this supply gap will fade. Lots of jobs for high IQ people will go by the wayside (lots in finance) and they will be redirected at an early age into these roles. We have tons of intelligent people in this country.
 
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