ESPN Insider: Why the Braves should consider trading Kimbrel this winter.

Heyman, Rosenthal, Sherman all said over a month ago that the new trend for closers was going to be a decline in committed dollars. The days of Rivera, Papelbon, Soriano et al do not portend well for Kimbrel. With Ellsbury, Cano, Choo getting big big dollar contracts there is not enough left for a guy who plays maybe 70 innings to eat up 10% or more of your budget.

Baltimore may have gotten the jump on some teams, our team included. OTOH there is no explanation for teams like Detroit who will dump 20M in the lap of a 40 yr old closer.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Heyman, Rosenthal, Sherman all said over a month ago that the new trend for closers was going to be a decline in committed dollars. The days of Rivera, Papelbon, Soriano et al do not portend well for Kimbrel. With Ellsbury, Cano, Choo getting big big dollar contracts there is not enough left for a guy who plays maybe 70 innings to eat up 10% or more of your budget.

Baltimore may have gotten the jump on some teams, our team included. OTOH there is no explanation for teams like Detroit who will dump 20M in the lap of a 40 yr old closer.
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The Nathan and Wilson contracts suggest Kimbrel will do just fine when he hits free agency.
 
Not unless the new stadium can draw 3.5M like some other teams. Have you not been watching what Boston, NYY, LAD and now Philly are doing? And they all have tremendous TV deals.

Detroit is the exception and if their owner wasnt obsessed with a WS who knows.
 
I also think people need to be realistic about what the return would be. Teams may not be willing to give that much in talent and money to a closer. Our best option is most likely just keeping the best closer in baseball.
 
PawPawMaxwell said:
Not unless the new stadium can draw 3.5M like some other teams. Have you not been watching what Boston, NYY, LAD and now Philly are doing? And they all have tremendous TV deals.

Detroit is the exception and if their owner wasnt obsessed with a WS who knows.
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You just made my point,i never said the Braves would offer him that.

One of those teams with big payrolls would, probably the Yankees to replace Rivera.
 
I can't see the Braves dealing Kimbrel this offseason. At $7M he is worth every penny to a WS contender, especially since Wren would just have to go out and spend at least that much on a replacement. This team just lost its two most veteran and well respected players due to money constraints, so no way in hell is Wren going to also lose his only truly elite player.

Next offseason when he costs $10M I imagine he is likely gone for whatever Wren can get for him. Sad thing is I don't think the return will be anywhere near as grand as I envisioned just a few months ago. The Phils can't even give Pap away at $13M per year without eating money, so that doesn't bode well for Kimbrel's future trade value...and Wren will almost certainly be forced to trade him next year for whatever the most desperate team is willing to give up.
 
Heyward said:
Not really, Philly wants to trade Paps and just get him off the team in a salary dump.

And those other teams with big bucks would want Kimbrel and trade for him if available.
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Nobody knows for sure. Olney just listed high payroll clubs. The only other assumption to go on is that the Yankees paid Rivera a lot. It doesn't necessarily follow that they're going to be willing to pay somebody else at that same salary level. A lot of people are overrating the importance and (ahem) value of an elite closer. Teams can win with a very good closer, who is modestly-priced.

Heyward said:
One of those teams with big payrolls would, probably the Yankees to replace Rivera.
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You have nothing to base this on, other than thethe said so.
 
Look at the contracts Soriano, Nathan, League and Wilson have gotten the last two off-seasons. Kimbrel is younger, better and has been more durable than those guys. He will get much more than they did.
 
well it seems theres probably 4 options in house if we trade kimbrel

1) venters when hes ready

2) walden

3) carpenter

4) vazquez

it would be ironic if it was venters since the original plan was to have venters and kimbrel split time as closers. it venters could get back on track i would have no problem trusting him to do the job.
 
jcc03004 said:
well it seems theres probably 4 options in house if we trade kimbrel
1) venters when hes ready
2) walden
3) carpenter
4) vazquez

it would be ironic if it was venters since the original plan was to have venters and kimbrel split time as closers. it venters could get back on track i would have no problem trusting him to do the job.
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I like Carpenter if you can get him to stick with his fastball.
Avilan would be a good option as well.
 
jcc03004 said:
well it seems theres probably 4 options in house if we trade kimbrel
1) venters when hes ready
2) walden
3) carpenter
4) vazquez

it would be ironic if it was venters since the original plan was to have venters and kimbrel split time as closers. it venters could get back on track i would have no problem trusting him to do the job.
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None of them are close to kimbrel. Not even a little
 
Jay212033 said:
Would you guys pull the trigger on this?

Seattle gets:
Craig Kimbrel - CP

Braves get:
Taijuan Walker - SP
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Yes I would take Walker. He was rated #7 on BA's mid-season list.

Here are the last 20 #7s on BA's annual start of the year list: Gerritt Cole, Profar, Chapman, Posey, Brett Anderson, Kershaw, Longoria, Billingsley, Kazmir, Kaz Matsui, Brandon Phillips, Mauer, Sabatthia, Burroughs, Ryan Anderson, Matt White, Travis Lee, Karim Garcia, Charles Johnson, Manny Ramirez

There are some busts and disappointments on that list. But the surplus value (production above salary) of these players during their pre-free agency years has on average been extremely high. Much higher than what Kimbrel can generate in his arb years even if he maintains his very high standards.
 
Knucksie said:
Nobody knows for sure. Olney just listed high payroll clubs. The only other assumption to go on is that the Yankees paid Rivera a lot. It doesn't necessarily follow that they're going to be willing to pay somebody else at that same salary level. A lot of people are overrating the importance and (ahem) value of an elite closer. Teams can win with a very good closer, who is modestly-priced.

You have nothing to base this on, other than thethe said so.
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If Joe Nathan near 40 years old can get 10 million, Kimbrel would easily get 13-20 million in AAV.

Without question.

A lot to base this off, as a matter of fact.
 
Heyward said:
If Joe Nathan near 40 years old can get 10 million, Kimbrel would easily get 13-20 million in AAV.

Without question.

A lot to base this off, as a matter of fact.
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Without question. A lot to based this off. What, exactly? Your good word?

Please educate me, here, as to which teams are known to be allocating 13-20 million in their budgets for closers. You insisted that the market is set. Now back it up with facts. It'll be especially fun to see how's all set to drop 20 million on a one-inning guy.
 
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