ESPN Insider: Why the Braves should consider trading Kimbrel this winter.

[PawPawMaxwell]

Heyward can come up with some very good and pertinent posts then all of a sudden here comes something straight out of a fantasy league. Closers would seem to be the first to suffer from new market prices. Power is now the thing, not 9th inning wunderkinds.

 

[Knucksie]

Heyward can come up with some very good and pertinent posts then all of a sudden here comes something straight out of a fantasy league.

It's not just him. Somebody else here just operated under the assumption, "oh, the Yankees paid Rivera a lot of money, so that must mean that they've earmarked $12 million + for the closer!" Others on the forum picked up on it and ran with it.

The other small detail is that there massive mainstream press attention to the detail that the Yankees wanted reduce their luxury tax bill. Yeah, they have a big payroll, but even they have a budget. Then, there's the matter of the Kimbrel Tommy John countdown.

 

[zitothebrave]

As someone who's been on the we won't get anything worth what kimbrel is worth to us. It doesn't happen.

 

[Heyward]

Without question. A lot to based this off. What, exactly? Your good word?

Please educate me, here, as to which teams are known to be allocating 13-20 million in their budgets for closers. You insisted that the market is set. Now back it up with facts. It'll be especially fun to see how's all set to drop 20 million on a one-inning guy.

Kimbrel isnt your run of the mill closer for one.

LAD, NYY, Bos, along with some others would give him a huge deal if he hit the market.

 

[bravesnumberone]

I will repeat. Trade Kimbrel, and we better be getting significant established Major League talent.

 

[zitothebrave]

Kimbrel isnt your run of the mill closer for one.

LAD, NYY, Bos, along with some others would give him a huge deal if he hit the market.

You don't know that.

 

[Heyward]

You don't know that.

I do.

 

[Knucksie]

I do.

Then please share your knowledge. Exactly HOW do you know? Only the Yankees splurged on a closer this past season, and that was because Rivera was a franchise icon. They've otherwise given no indication that there's any concern about his replacement. The Red Sox just won the WS with their closer, Hanrahan, on the DL. The Dodgers didn't break that magical $13 million threshold for Brian Wilson.

So, basically, your entire argument is based on "well, these are high payroll teams, and they'll offer a boatload of prospects, and will want to extend Kimbrel for $13-20MM" based on...well, nothing.

 

[Heyward]

Then please share your knowledge. Exactly HOW do you know? Only the Yankees splurged on a closer this past season, and that was because Rivera was a franchise icon. They've otherwise given no indication that there's any concern about his replacement. The Red Sox just won the WS with their closer, Hanrahan, on the DL. The Dodgers didn't break that magical $13 million threshold for Brian Wilson.

So, basically, your entire argument is based on "well, these are high payroll teams, and they'll offer a boatload of prospects, and will want to extend Kimbrel for $13-20MM" based on...well, nothing.

Logic.

 

[Knucksie]

Logic.

So try and acquire some.

 

[zitothebrave]

Logic.

What logic? Yankees have paid a lot of money for mo. Now that he retired they didn't go out and splurge on Nathan. That's like saying the braves will pay a ton of money for a 3b cause they did for chipper. Dodgers only paid a ton of cash for gagne iirc. And he was home grown. And Boston never has paid a high price for a closer including letting their own guy papelbon leave to the Phillies. There may be teams who'll pay a ton for kimbrel. But saying for sure that some team will is just plain wrong. You don't know

 

[thethe]

The only reason I don't think we can use past precedent and current market conditions with Kimbrel is because he is truly unique. No closer has ever been this good and has never been made available at such a young age. I don't think either camp (Trade him vs. Keep him) can claim to know his true value on the market.

 

[skillet]

If we didn't have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs and win the World Series this year I think it would make sense to fields offers for him now. But we have way too good of a team to even think about trading him now. You don't trade away the best closer in the game on a team with WS aspirations.

 

[zitothebrave]

If we didn't have a legitimate chance to make the playoffs and win the World Series this year I think it would make sense to fields offers for him now. But we have way too good of a team to even think about trading him now. You don't trade away the best closer in the game on a team with WS aspirations.

And that is the main point. The Braves are a winning team, we cannot act like a team who's not good and trade away great players for prospects.

Braves are in a unique position this offseason, they don't have to make a single move. They were one of the best teams in baseball last year with Heyward missing a lot of time, all kinds of pitching injuries, Uggla na dUpton having the worst seasons of their careers, and fielding one fo the youngest offenses in baseball, certainly the youngest of a good team.

For 2014 the Braves have an insane prospect, on last year the only position they're at risk of heavy regression is catcher. Which will almost for sure happen since we downgraded at starter and backup (if you consider Gattis backup) We're looking at almost for sure locks of better CF and 2B player. Even if it doesn't involved Uggla at 2B odds are that La Stella or Pastornicky won't be as bad as Uggla/EJ. CF you're looking at Bossman almost for sure bouncing back. Whatever happened last year was almost for sure in his head. You heard about him tinkering his approach or swing all year. That often leads to issues.

 

[zitothebrave]

The only reason I don't think we can use past precedent and current market conditions with Kimbrel is because he is truly unique. No closer has ever been this good and has never been made available at such a young age. I don't think either camp (Trade him vs. Keep him) can claim to know his true value on the market.

Of course Kimbrel is special. But he's a closer. Look at Lidge, Gagne, etc. many guys have been dominant and then fallen off the face of the earth. Many guys like Papelbon started dominant then faded as time went on. For every comp to Rivera or Wagner, you can comp Kimbrel to a lesser closer.

Also you have to remember Billy Wagner was traded, yes he was older but there is positive value to that in that he had proven health and long term dominance, no falling off. Astros got for him Brandon Duckworth, Ezequiel Astacio, and Taylor Buchholz. the peak ranking of those guys are Astacio at 80, Buchholz at 50, and Duckworth didn't rank at all. So to compare those to prospects from last year, would be like the Yankees offering Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin with a nobody. DOesn't get me out of bed.

 

[thethe]

Of course Kimbrel is special. But he's a closer. Look at Lidge, Gagne, etc. many guys have been dominant and then fallen off the face of the earth. Many guys like Papelbon started dominant then faded as time went on. For every comp to Rivera or Wagner, you can comp Kimbrel to a lesser closer.

Also you have to remember Billy Wagner was traded, yes he was older but there is positive value to that in that he had proven health and long term dominance, no falling off. Astros got for him Brandon Duckworth, Ezequiel Astacio, and Taylor Buchholz. the peak ranking of those guys are Astacio at 80, Buchholz at 50, and Duckworth didn't rank at all. So to compare those to prospects from last year, would be like the Yankees offering Gary Sanchez and Tyler Austin with a nobody. DOesn't get me out of bed.

Wagner was 31 and the Astros were cutting their salary. Its a completely different situation IMO.

 

[zitothebrave]

Wagner was 31 and the Astros were cutting their salary. Its a completely different situation IMO.

False the Astros weren't cutting salary, they went from71 to 75 million. They cut out Wagner becayse they had Lidge and Dotel. If we had someone younger than Kimbrel who was nearly as ggood then you'd have a point in trading him like the Astros did. Astros made the deal because of having 2 guys who could replace him. We have maybe 1 guy who can replace Kimbrel, maybe 2, but Venters is coming off his second tommy john so who knows about him. And Walden is older, not as good and closer to FA

 

[skillet]

We have one guy in our system that could, could turn out to be good enough to consider trading Kimbrel next year. That guy is Shea Simmons. He is 23 with a minor league ERA of 1.62, WHIP of 1.09, K/9 of 13.6, K/BB of 3.11. He should pitch in AA or AAA this year. As comparison, Craig's minor league ERA was 1.85, WHIP 1.12, K/9 14.4, K/BB 2.55.

 

[Knucksie]

Dodgers only paid a ton of cash for gagne iirc. And he was home grown.

FWIW, Gagne's name came up in the course of conversation, leading up to the Sheffield deal.

 

[Knucksie]

The relative value of an elite closer is clearly overrated by some. We all know how great Kimbrel has been, and is usually lights out. Still, in terms of helping the team win, that role could go to somebody making a lot less without a dramatic drop in additional losses/blown saves. The Braves has clowns, like McMichael & Ligtenberg, doing it during the 14 year division crown run.

This is not advocating the idea of trading Kimbrel. Not only is the post about $20MM/year on salary for a 70 inning guy ludicrious, but there is no clear indication that any team would be willing to offer a huge package of top prospects in return. Having said all that, if it ever came to that situation, Walden could do it until Graham received the proper grooming.