Evaluating Managers

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Nerfherders said:
I found this a couple weeks ago and dug it back up since we are having quite a bit of discussion on the merits of one Fredi Gonzalez.

How many wins is a manager worth?
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So far the Braves have outperformed their Pythagorean by 1 game during his tenure. Teams with strong pens tend to outperform their Pythagoreans. Based on won-loss there isn't much evidence that Fredi is above average as a manager. If anything he seems to be slightly below average.

During his Marlins tenure he was seven above the Pythagorean during his first three years. That jives with the impression I had that he was pretty good during that period, at least when I was watching the Marlins play the Braves. My memory is that he more often than not outmaneuvered Bobby Cox during those years.
 
nsacpi said:
So far the Braves have outperformed their Pythagorean by 1 game during his tenure. Teams with strong pens tend to outperform their Pythagoreans. Based on won-loss there isn't much evidence that Fredi is above average as a manager. If anything he seems to be slightly below average.

During his Marlins tenure he was seven above the Pythagorean during his first three years. That jives with the impression I had that he was pretty good during that period, at least when I was watching the Marlins play the Braves. My memory is that he more often than not outmaneuvered Bobby Cox during those years.
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It may still be a case of him trying to be too much like Bobby since he came to Atlanta.
 
From what I've seen so far

Matt Williams < Davey Johnson

and

Ryne Sandberg < Charlie Manuel
 
nsacpi said:
From what I've seen so far

Matt Williams < Davey Johnson

and

Ryne Sandberg < Charlie Manuel
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Charlie Manuel was a terrible manager, he lucked into a team that included Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, and Cole Hamels all peacking at the perfect time. And of course players like Werth, Victorino, and the ever solid offensively but terrible defensively Pat Burrell.
 
thethe said:
Those Philly teams were just unfair offensively. You could not get them out.
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Yup. The scrap heap finds of Werth and Victorino set that run in motion. Of course Utley being the second best player in baseball for a stretch didn't hurt.
 
nsacpi said:
From what I've seen so far

Matt Williams < Davey Johnson

and

Ryne Sandberg < Charlie Manuel
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Man, Matt Williams has not looked good as a manager so far. He literally has shuffled his lineup just about every game so far this season.
 
I'm under the impression that manager decisions do not have a huge impact over the course of the season. A baseball manager's job really is to motivate and get the best out of the players. If they perform well or exceed expectations, it will make the manager look good.
 
My list of good managers: Maddon, Girardi, Francona, Melvin, Bochy.

There are a couple new ones that show promise: Matheny & Redmond. Maybe Weiss too.

I have an admiration for how Bud Black has run the Padres with relatively little in the way of talent and resources, but I'm not quite ready to say he is one of the top managers.
 
NYCBrave said:
Man, Matt Williams has not looked good as a manager so far. He literally has shuffled his lineup just about every game so far this season.
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Thats in part due to almost every position player losing time due to injuries.

Too early to tell on managers. Lineup construction should be the last thing managers are criticized on (unless it's a .180 hitter batting 2nd)

I like the pedigree of both Williams and Sandberg. Early on, it seems Sandberg leaves pitchers in games too long, but it's a long haul and he may want to see what they are made of. Williams has done a good job managing the bullpen, but he tends to be a bit aggressive on making moves when a little patience could be the trick.

It's a long season. In baseball, a managers job of managing things off the field is as important, if not more, than in -game moves.

Davey Johnson was a terrible manager. He was stuck in the 80s and completely botched the bullpen situation. Hard to judge Charlie, he essentially had an everyday lineup and rotation set and would wake up about the 7th/8th inning.
 
I think the point made about the Braves clubhouse typically being extremely cohesive (even after the Uggla situation in the playoffs last year) should be a huge positive for Freddi. I know I get crazy during the games but overall you can't argue with the win loss record under his tenure.
 
Hawk said:
... then Ruben Amaro became GM and promptly **** the bed.
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Well there wasn't much Amaro could do to right hte ship immediately, the Phillies were and still are too old. What he did do though was hurt the turn around with his Halladay trade, and his Howard contract. Granted Halladay performed for the Phillies, no doubt about that But he gutted what remained of the minors to make that move. By the time 2010 rolled around it was clear the Phillies were gonna be done soon, Victorino at 29 was the only starter under 30, Werth was hitting FA, and they blew their whole farm trading for a signle SP, when the rest of the rotation was set to consist of Kyle Kendrick, Joe Blanton, and Jaime Moyer. The icing on that **** scenario, they had Cliff Lee at the start of the offseason, they had no need to make the Halladay move. They didn't get destroyed because Taylor, D'Arnaud and Drabek haven't amounted to much, but they still could have used those guys to address other holes. Say they offered them for 2 good SP instead of 1 great one getting Moyer and Kendrick out of the rotation, or something along those lines.
 
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