Southcack77
Well-known member
That begs the question of whether you want to pay a 1 WAR player his market value. I tend to think that's probably where you can save your money.
Extending Swanson and Albies
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That begs the question of whether you want to pay a 1 WAR player his market value. I tend to think that's probably where you can save your money.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
That's my point!
Go big now. Get them locked in for cheap. Yes they will want to be FA at 30....but when you're in your 20s, 30 seems way far away. Let them turn down 100 million. And pay them now. Don't do that creep up crap and have them be 20 million in 5+ years.
Ender is cost controlled and cheap. FF is relatively cost controlled. You likely have a piece for cheap until Markakis and/or Kemp is free in Acuna. Tehran is still a relative bargain. If you are not getting 3+ effective starters, 2 dominant relief pitchers and some effective pen arms for cheap out of this rebuild then NOTHING ELSE MATTERS. They should have money. Spend the money now.
Yes Albies could have a lower body injury that saps his speed and makes him not so good.
Yes Swanson may have a sub 100 wRC+.
I think if you did 10/100 on both one of them is going to be a home run sign. If the other tanks it shouldn't be a crazy deal long term. I still think both guys on defense will reach 10 million in value.
The original post is a real potential. No way Coppy has the balls to do my deal. Nobody pays people on straight money on these extensions....I just think we should.
You could argue about the structure. Maybe you make it shorter and get team options that escalate the annual value.
In my deal if you're Dansby the worst case scenario is you turn into a 3+ WAR player and you get paid 12/150 million at 35. IF that happens you were chronically underpaid. But the home town team LOVES you and you take that and your good looks and turn it into 250 million off the field. Worst case for the Braves is that he's a 0.5 WAR player IMO. He probably still becomes underpaid by the end of the deal.
Albies is the high risk one IMO. B/c if he loses speed due to age or injury he might not be very good. But I still think he's a 1 WAR guy with his D and contact ability. He would potentially still hit the market at 30 but his life changes big time if he goes from 500K to 10 million. I don't see how you could turn that down.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I think the Braves have proven how hard it is to get a 1 WAR guy.....see LF and 3B for a decade.
IF Swanson or albies is a 1 WAR guy, then you lost your bet. But you aren't under like we're under on Kemp. I think worst case you end up with a Markakis type guy.
I don't see the Braves making their bones with a bunch of young cheap guys that they flip with 2 years of control. I don't see them signing a bunch of high priority FA. Getting a bunch of extensions and having some pay off is the way.
If you had Swanson, Acuna and Albies on 10 million per year deals....how comfortable would you be? I'd feel really good that one of those is going to make me look like a genius and the others are going to be positive. I don't think any of those is going to get me fired.
100 million isn't that much. Jordan Zimmerman got 110 million over 5 years only 2 years ago.
It's not for the risk adverse.
If you feel like you can just find another guy, then go do it.
Paying Swanson and/or Albies 20 million is less exciting to me. The annual value is what I want to keep down, not that I'm advocating a Bobby Bonilla deal.
Players aren't signing away FA years with extensions like they were 5-10 years ago. Their agents and the MLBPA have woken up to how much money players have been leaving on the table as a result of those extensions.
Folks need to be realistic with the contracts it will require to extend players like Swanson and Albies. Swanson is not signing some 10 year deal that will pay him like a utility player.
Folks need to be realistic with the contracts it will require to extend players like Swanson and Albies. Swanson is not signing some 10 year deal that will pay him like a utility player.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
That's fine. You make him turn down 100 million. You make Albies and Acuna do it too.
I feel like my crazy idea is valid when I have people on both sides. Some say it's way too much. You are saying it's utility money (I think it's right).
If I'm Swanson I do it. B/c I get 100 million. And I'm going to turn Atlanta home town kid into my brand and you'll see make a fortune off the field. And while I'm in my 20s I want to ball out. I know I got 6.5 million a couple of years ago. But I want the big money now to increase my social circles. Or I can invest it now vs waiting 5 years to get the money.
Except I'd be willing to try and get a couple more years from each - say 8 year deals like Freeman's. If you could get them both to sign this winter BEFORE they put up 2+ win seasons, I'm not so sure I wouldn't be willing to offer 10 year deals - to Ozzie at the very least.
Albies is a better candidate for a longer extension since he is younger. I don't think there Swanson would go that long since he would then hit FA for the first time after 30.
Agreed - wouldn't keep me from putting the ball in his court and making him turn it down though. Freeman did, so you just never know.
I'd give an extension to Albies before Swanson.
I'd certainly offer it to him to see if he bites.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I would too. In fairness, it might only because I've seen Swanson go backwards and haven't seen Albies do that.
You'd think Albies would be more likely to want to put some money in his pocket, not having been a #1 draft pick.
Personally, I'd wait.
msstate7
Well-known member
Swanson in '16 (145 PA)...
.302/.361/.442, bWAR = 0.8
Albies in '17 (126 PA)...
.286/.352/.455, bWAR = 0.7
Virtually identical starts
I like Albies' as a switch hitter. I've also liked what I've seen out of his plate appearances and his approach. I also like him on the basepaths. I also want to keep the Curacao connection alive since we stupidly traded Simmons whom is playing great once again.
Danbsy next year might start swinging and missing at breaking balls low again. He's done well since coming back, but his struggles were really really really bad. Albies might run into struggles too, but based on the at-bats I've seen I think he'll handle struggles better. Just looks like he has a better approach.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I was thinking about that. A couple differences worth noting. Swanson last year had a BABIP of .383 and strikeout rate of 23.4%. In contrast, Albies is carrying a BABIP of .326 and strikeout rate of 15.1%. Which combination do you like better?
msstate7
Well-known member
Obviously Albies. He's probably a little better prepared since he had 695 PA in AAA before taking an MLB AB.
I'm not trying to turn this into a competition of the two. I love them both. I do think the Swanson we see of late is much closer to the real Swanson.
He may get .700 outright BTW
msstate7
Well-known member
I thought that was what WAR was for.
WAR shows us how a player performed in a given period. It doesn't tell us why or the likelihood of that being repeated.
msstate7
Well-known member
So they were virtually identical in their first 125-145 PAs. Thanks