The improvement is good. Its just over the course of a tiny sample, which should be considered. Hopefully, he keeps improving
Extent Ender
- Thread starter nsacpi
- Start date
The improvement is good. Its just over the course of a tiny sample, which should be considered. Hopefully, he keeps improving
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
I guess his first three months get easily dismissed around here if people want to extend him so quickly.
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
He hits for no power and doesn't steal bases. Sure he's a great outfielder and he has improved immensely, but his ceiling is probably where he is right now which isn't bad at all. He could turn out to be a solid player who hits singles. Not sure that equates to a multi year extension and a hefty raise.
Apologies if you have already said this. But what would you sign Ender for and how long?
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
lol.. yes it is.. but his career is not very long either and has big swings from year to year.
2014 -- .646
2015 -- .530
2016 -- .700
for me that is not enough consistent data to make an accurate assumption. I think you could make a case that he broke into the league as an average hitter and then had a sophomore slump and now is getting momentum and will be a .700+ OPS splitter, which as theWupk pointed out is above league average.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
He doesn't strike out much, he walks well, and he hits a lot of line drives with plus-plus defense. He's not a perfect player, but he's a very very good player. A poor man's Jason Heyward.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Well you'd be buying out arb years, so the comparison to the Heyward contract is silly all around.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
the Old school BravesWay doesn't steal bases. if let loose, he has potential to steal 25 bases a year.
Not necessarily a comparison with Heyward. But you can look at the FA years for a market value comparison. I'm just curious as to how high you would go personally.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I think something similar to the Teheran deal would work. Maybe a little higher, say 6/36-6/42.
JT's deal is a huge discount. If you want to get Ender on something like that this would be the offseason to do it. First year or arby and buying out 2 years of FA would be the ideal length imo. Still, I don't personally see him selling 2 FA years for 11-12 million a year or so. Maybe the allure of financial security is big for him though.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Teheran signed that deal after a really good rookie year. I think you'd be buying out more FA years for Inciarte, so maybe I could see a 6/45 - 6/50 type deal.
If done now it would be 1 more FA year for Ender's deal but JT's club option will be picked up. So JT sold 2 FA years for 11 and 12 million. Personally I don't see Ender doing that. I could see something around in the 6/45 - 6/50 range though. Would be a good deal for both sides.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I was thinking 6/48
The Braves already have Ender for around 4/20, at which point he will be entering his age 30 season. I see no reason to give him an additional 2/28 for his age 30 and 31 seasons when his defense (and the bulk of his value) will be well into it's decline.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
I'd also very much try and get it done this offseason. I think his bat could keep improving, even if it isn't a ton. I don't think the bat's ceiling is that high but I wouldn't be shocked to see some 750+ OPS seasons in the future.
I suspect that even in decline, 2/28 will be a real bargain for his 31 and 32 years. That is the age when declines begin, but experience compensates, making guys really good veteran players. Teams with veteran players like that are called winners.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
Plus at that point, FA contracts are bound to be a good bit higher.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
Could see 9 - 10/WAR by then. So Ender would only have to be a 1.5 WAR player to get value out of those 2 extra years.
The issue is that you shouldn't be paying market value for 1.5 WAR players. While your point would stand in a standard FA contract the Braves already control Ender for 4 more seasons at way below market value prices and can cut him at anytime if his ability goes south. If the assumption that Ender is an average player in those last 2 years then should not extend him. If you still think he will be a 3-4 WAR player then you should do it.