Extenting Acuna

nsacpi

nsacpi

Expects Yuge Games
Reasons to do it and do it this off-season:

1) On the right terms, it extents the team's competitive window beyond the six years we have him under control.

2) His skill set is going to be well rewarded by arbitration.

3) The arbitration process is also likely to reward him for high finishes in MVP voting.

4) Getting him signed on the right terms sends a signal to the other core players and will probably also make it easier to hold on to them on the team friendly terms.

5) There is a serious risk that waiting will just drive up the price. So do it this off-season if at all possible.

So what are the right terms. I am a Braves fan first and foremost and would like to see the terms be as team friendly as is realistically possible. With that in mind I would like to see a ten-year deal along these lines:

Year 1: 2M
Year 2: 4M
Year 3: 10M
Year 4: 13M
Year 5: 16M
Year 6: 19M
Year 7: 22M
Year 8: 24M
Year 9: 27M
Year 10: 30M
 
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I don't think he would accept anything beyond an 8 year deal, but if he would take this then I'd do it in a heartbeat. I think year 7,8,9,10 would all have to be at 30 million plus though. I'd also be willing to put more money in years 1 and 2 if it meant we could extend him for longer.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I don't think he would accept anything beyond an 8 year deal, but if he would take this then I'd do it in a heartbeat. I think year 7,8,9,10 would all have to be at 30 million plus though. I'd also be willing to put more money in years 1 and 2 if it meant we could extend him for longer.
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He might not. But when you present an offer of 150 million plus guaranteed. It is hard to pass up. Even a ten year deal gets him one more huge payday at 31.
 
BeanieAntics said:
I don't think he would accept anything beyond an 8 year deal, but if he would take this then I'd do it in a heartbeat. I think year 7,8,9,10 would all have to be at 30 million plus though. I'd also be willing to put more money in years 1 and 2 if it meant we could extend him for longer.
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Good point on Year 1 and 2. Adding to those years might be one way to hold down the AAV. There were some quotes from his father during the spring that were supportive of his taking a long-term deal. The knee injury might have reinforced the point that there is a certain amount of risk in life and that he should grab the opportunity to ensure his future and his family's future (including generations not yet born).
 
bravesfanMatt said:
He might not. But when you present an offer of 150 million plus guaranteed. It is hard to pass up. Even a ten year deal gets him one more huge payday at 31.
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Yes a ten-year deal ends after his age 30 season. He would still have a chance for another yuge deal.
 
Man, that would be something to dream on. Now that we’re officially competitors, my anxiety has shifted to how a middle-pack payroll team can extend, er, extent their window of opportunity. This would be a yuge, like Harang/Laird battery yuge, step.
 
Julio3000 said:
Man, that would be something to dream on. Now that we’re officially competitors, my anxiety has shifted to how a middle-pack payroll team can extend, er, extent their window of opportunity. This would be a yuge, like Harang/Laird battery yuge, step.
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massive really...as in Colon/Harang/Laird combined
 
nsacpi said:
Reasons to do it and do it this off-season:

1) On the right terms, it extents the team's competitive window beyond the six years we have him under control.

2) His skill set is going to be well rewarded by arbitration.

3) The arbitration process is also likely to reward him for high finishes in MVP voting.

4) Getting him signed on the right terms sends a signal to the other core players and will probably also make it easier to hold on to them on the team friendly terms.

5) There is a serious risk that waiting will just drive up the price. So do it this off-season if at all possible.

So what are the right terms. I am a Braves fan first and foremost and would like to see the terms be as team friendly as is realistically possible. With that in mind I would like to see a ten-year deal along these lines:

Year 1: 2M
Year 2: 4M
Year 3: 10M
Year 4: 13M
Year 5: 16M
Year 6: 19M
Year 7: 22M
Year 8: 24M
Year 9: 27M
Year 10: 30M
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I think if Acuna played for another team and was hitting free agency this season, you would be against signing him to the same 10 year deal you are proposing here.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think if Acuna played for another team and was hitting free agency this season, you would be against signing him to the same 10 year deal you are proposing here.
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If he was 28 or something, ready to enter free agency, yeah I'd definitely be against it too. Even though the structure would be completely different and the fact that Acuna is only 20 makes it about as apples to oranges as you can get.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think if Acuna played for another team and was hitting free agency this season, you would be against signing him to the same 10 year deal you are proposing here.
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I wouldn’t.

Take Vlad jr. if he did what acuña is doing. I would be willing to pay him close to that. Just vlad doesn’t have the overall game like vtrout.
 
Acuna is extremely unlikely to sign an extension taking him through his age 30 season, dropping him onto the FA market ahead of his age 31 season. His agent knows his skills are going to be richly rewarded in arbitration, so there is little reason to give the Braves a huge discount.

The Braves already control Acuna's age 21-26 seasons, and assuming the star/superstar path he is likely to take, the upper limit of his cost will be roughly...

2019 (21): $0.75M (pre-arb 2, similar to Bryant)
2020 (22): $1M (pre-arb 3, similar to Bryant)
2021 (23): $10M (arb 1, will flirt with Bryant's 1st year arb record)
2022 (24): $15M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $19M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $23M (arb 4, flirting with Donaldson's 4th year arb record)

That puts the upper bound of Acuna's earnings going year to year at around 6/70. He will then be in line to hit the open market ahead of his age 27 season poised to sign the largest contract in MLB history, and certainly larger than $400M, while making upwards of $40M per season.

So the Braves need to guarantee less than 6/70, while pushing a chunk of the money forward into his pre-arb seasons, and secure 1-2 options at around $30M to make sense.

Your proposed $2M/$4M/$10M/$13M/$16M/$19M comes out to 6/64, and is roughly in the ballpark, and may actually be a bit steep.

The 4/103 tacked onto the end is not realistic at all. Acuna is not going to give up his peak earning years that will see him earning $40M per year.

The most likely extension is something along the lines of 6/60 for his control years, followed by 1-2 options at $30M+. That allows the Braves to save ~$10M per year on a couple FA years, and still allows Acuna to hit the FA market in time for a record setting deal.

The most likely outcome is he does what all recent elite young players are doing and goes year to year so he can hit FA at the youngest age possible. The Braves knew this, which is why they correctly played the service time game with him.
 
Enscheff said:
Acuna is extremely unlikely to sign an extension taking him through his age 30 season, dropping him onto the FA market ahead of his age 31 season. His agent knows his skills are going to be richly rewarded in arbitration, so there is little reason to give the Braves a huge discount.

The Braves already control Acuna's age 21-26 seasons, and assuming the star/superstar path he is likely to take, the upper limit of his cost will be roughly...

2019 (21): $0.75M (pre-arb 2, similar to Bryant)
2020 (22): $1M (pre-arb 3, similar to Bryant)
2021 (23): $10M (arb 1, will flirt with Bryant's 1st year arb record)
2022 (24): $15M (arb 2)
2023 (25): $19M (arb 3)
2024 (26): $23M (arb 4, flirting with Donaldson's 4th year arb record)

That puts the upper bound of Acuna's earnings going year to year at around 6/70. He will then be in line to hit the open market ahead of his age 27 season poised to sign the largest contract in MLB history, and certainly larger than $400M, while making upwards of $40M per season.

So the Braves need to guarantee less than 6/70, while pushing a chunk of the money forward into his pre-arb seasons, and secure 1-2 options at around $30M to make sense.

Your proposed $2M/$4M/$10M/$13M/$16M/$19M comes out to 6/64, and is roughly in the ballpark, and may actually be a bit steep.

The 4/103 tacked onto the end is not realistic at all. Acuna is not going to give up his peak earning years that will see him earning $40M per year.

The most likely extension is something along the lines of 6/60 for his control years, followed by 1-2 options at $30M+. That allows the Braves to save ~$10M per year on a couple FA years, and still allows Acuna to hit the FA market in time for a record setting deal.

The most likely outcome is he does what all recent elite young players are doing and goes year to year so he can hit FA at the youngest age possible. The Braves knew this, which is why they correctly played the service time game with him.
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You are correct in terms of logic. What we have to hope for is that he and his agents/advisers are a bit naive and risk averse. The 6/64 front end is a little generous as you note. My idea is to pad it a bit in the early years to get a significant discount on the four FA years. He might well reject it, but I think it is worth a try.
 
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Best part of team control is that you don't have to pay the player what he's worth and you don't assume any risk of his injury or sudden diminishment of ability.

I'm much more content to let Acuna get closer to free agency to limit some of that risk.

the Braves don't even know what he is right now really.
 
Oh. My. God. I just read the dumbest thing I've ever read in regards to Braves baseball. Its dumber than anything I've read on here, even though I have only been around a year. Garrett Spain at Talking Chop went to his computer to type up an article, and thought that this sentence made sense:

"There’s no real wrong answer there as trading a major league asset like Culberson could net more of a return than Riley and the Braves organization holds Riley in high regards."

I don't know where to put this and I didn't want to make another thread. But holy crap. He thinks that Charlie Culberson would get you more value than Austin Riley on the trade market. Should target Odorizzi? Could Culberson possibly get us better? Maybe Pittsburgh is ready to bail out on the Archer experiment and is down for a 1 for 1 swap?....

How in the actual hell does he think Culberson carries that much value? I'm flabbergasted.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/9/...n-riley-ian-anderson-luiz-gohara-bryse-wilson
 
Southcack77 said:
Best part of team control is that you don't have to pay the player what he's worth and you don't assume any risk of his injury or sudden diminishment of ability.

I'm much more content to let Acuna get closer to free agency to limit some of that risk.

the Braves don't even know what he is right now really.
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The idea is to take on some risk in exchange for extenting the window of contention.
 
Southcack77 said:
Best part of team control is that you don't have to pay the player what he's worth and you don't assume any risk of his injury or sudden diminishment of ability.

I'm much more content to let Acuna get closer to free agency to limit some of that risk.

the Braves don't even know what he is right now really.
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If you wait then you're gonna end up having to pay Acuna an absurd amount of money to extend him. Nscapi's idea is to assume some of that injury risk for Acuna by paying him more earlier in order to get more significant discounts on years 7, 8, 9, and 10. If it were possible, I think that would be a much better idea for the team than waiting for Acuna to be in year 5 where we have to give him an insanely large contract.
 
BeanieAntics said:
Oh. My. God. I just read the dumbest thing I've ever read in regards to Braves baseball. Its dumber than anything I've read on here, even though I have only been around a year. Garrett Spain at Talking Chop went to his computer to type up an article, and thought that this sentence made sense:

"There’s no real wrong answer there as trading a major league asset like Culberson could net more of a return than Riley and the Braves organization holds Riley in high regards."

I don't know where to put this and I didn't want to make another thread. But holy crap. He thinks that Charlie Culberson would get you more value than Austin Riley on the trade market. Should target Odorizzi? Could Culberson possibly get us better? Maybe Pittsburgh is ready to bail out on the Archer experiment and is down for a 1 for 1 swap?....

How in the actual hell does he think Culberson carries that much value? I'm flabbergasted.

https://www.talkingchop.com/2018/9/...n-riley-ian-anderson-luiz-gohara-bryse-wilson
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Lots of people don't realize how unsustainable Culberson's results this year have been. It is not hard to figure out. All you have to do is look at his walk and strikeout rates. There is an important takeaway: we need to give Duvall more changes to come out of his slump rather than to head into the off-season counting on Culberson as a pinch hitter.
 
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BeanieAntics said:
If you wait then you're gonna end up having to pay Acuna an absurd amount of money to extend him. Nscapi's idea is to assume some of that injury risk for Acuna by paying him more earlier in order to get more significant discounts on years 7, 8, 9, and 10. If it were possible, I think that would be a much better idea for the team than waiting for Acuna to be in year 5 where we have to give him an insanely large contract.
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if its gonna happen it will be this off-season
 
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