Frank Wren's Tenure

thethe said:
All these metrics are incredibly valuable and need to be considered in all discussions. However, I think we lose sight of the fact that when you are watching the players a substantial amount you can interpret stats In a different way. When I watch Miller pitch I am surprised when hr struggles. That to me means more than his FIP. I feel this is sustainable because I don't see him getting squared up and see his nasty stuff that he locates well.
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Did you previously feel that way about Teheran?
 
thethe said:
No, it's still confusing.
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I don't see how we had a choice. We could have gone for it this year, likely failed, and been screwed for the future. We could've signed Justin long-term, but who knows how much he wanted? He is going to get PAID on the open market, and surely he and his agent know that.

I was an advocate of signing Heyward to a ~$20 mil per year deal. I am no longer.
 
You are making the same excuse that people on here made for Heyward when he was young and struggling.
 
thethe said:
Teheran is clearly hurt. His stuff looks nothing like what it was the last two years.
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I really don't think his stuff looks all that bad. He had two straight starts where he was pitching lights out and was snake bitten in the last inning. Two starts before then be shutout the Brewers.

I honestly think Julio is fine. He is just in a slump. It happens.
 
chop2chip said:
I really don't think his stuff looks all that bad. He had two straight starts where he was pitching lights out and was snake bitten in the last inning. Two starts before then be shutout the Brewers.

I honestly think Julio is fine. He is just in a slump. It happens.
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I agree, I don't feel he's hurt. He's a struggling young pitcher. I think most of his problems at the moment are between the ears.
 
Julio location is completely off and we haven't seen him flash the occasional 4 seamed in the mid 90s at all.
 
thethe said:
Julio location is completely off and we haven't seen him flash the occasional 4 seamed in the mid 90s at all.
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Yeah, that's true about his command. He has to regain that to be effective.
I'm pretty sure he was flashing 94 in his last start though.
 
yeezus said:
Yeah, that's true about his command. He has to regain that to be effective.

I'm pretty sure he was flashing 94 in his last start though.
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The last month he's been at his usual velocity from what I have seen.

His command is off. I'm not opposed to that being due to his knee, but you would think the Braves or Julio would come forward about that. It seems neither would like the narrative that he's lost his effectiveness due ability erosion.
 
sturg33 said:
Julio has always pitched over his ability... this could be a "regress to the mean" season
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But his command and control have always been better than what they are right now. He's struggling as well outside of those two things, but with those two things being normal Teheran he isn't struggling as much, IMO.
 
sturg33 said:
Julio has always pitched over his ability... this could be a "regress to the mean" season
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Whilst true, this isn't a "mean" season either.

Julio did have that nightmare AAA season a few years back. Maybe he is just prone to sustained slumps.
 
chop2chip said:
Whilst true, this isn't a "mean" season either.

Julio did have that nightmare AAA season a few years back. Maybe he is just prone to sustained slumps.
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Just happened to be the same year that Jair Jurrjens was down on attempting to make it back, and, presumably, his "mentor."
 
Julio3000 said:
Really?
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See below.

Julio3000 said:
My understanding was that the org was retooling his mechanics. But, if you want to make **** up, I guess that's fine, too.
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Not made up. Just observation. Whether the org actually recommended mentoring is speculation (hence, the term 'presumably'), but they were practically inseparable. Could have been a cultural connection between them. Could have been that management figured that JJ had some success at the MLB level, and that his presence/experience could rub off the young prospect. They did both get lit up that year in AAA, which may be a just coincidence. Wasn't suggesting that there was a connection between the two getting roughed up, but if you felt the urge to read more into the comment and activate the profanity filter, then be my guest.
 
weso1 said:
Harang is due to fall off a cliff any day now, which is where a huge chunk of your WAR is. Rasmus is likely to lose value as well, so it works both ways. You picked guys to be on your team specifically because they are having career or close to career years. Heyward/Kimbrel are likely to improve, but even significant improvement isn't enough to get us more than a .500 team. Keep in mind the team that I came up with has produced over 3 WAR better than your proposal. So even with significant improvement from your guys and drop off from my guys you are talking maybe at best a 3 WAR positive difference on your part going forward? Not close to being good enough to get us to the playoffs. That's best case scenario for you. Based on all the evidence we have at this time, it is much more likely than not that Hart/JS made the right decision to sell these guys.
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Based on what is Harang due to fall off the cliff? Someone (nscapi?) last year said that all of the time, and he didn't. He isn't a star pitcher. But he's found a niche as a 4/5 moderate inning eater. Rasmus will falter, because he happens to be in a torrent of a hot streak, but as a player his ceiling is way higher than our LF, and Mukaki. Rasmus isn't having a career year yet, it will be if he stays healthy, but so are Maybin, Miller, Markakis (well a late career career year) KJ, and douchebag the catcher. Your case that the team isn't much better with the other guys is precedented on struggles from guys who never struggled in Atlanta and booms from guys who haven't produced at this level recently. I'm glad you finally caught on to your hypocrisy.
 
I'm with thethe. I think Teheran is hurt. I think he did something to his knee when he tweaked it early this year. As with lots of leg injuries, it's preventing Teheran from getting the power he normally gets from his base. This is making him overthrow to get the velocity he used to. The overthrowing leads to his pitches straightening out and his location suffering. I think the injury is making him choose between location and stuff and he needs both to be successful.
 
Knucksie said:
See below.

Not made up. Just observation. Whether the org actually recommended mentoring is speculation (hence, the term 'presumably'), but they were practically inseparable. Could have been a cultural connection between them. Could have been that management figured that JJ had some success at the MLB level, and that his presence/experience could rub off the young prospect. They did both get lit up that year in AAA, which may be a just coincidence. Wasn't suggesting that there was a connection between the two getting roughed up, but if you felt the urge to read more into the comment and activate the profanity filter, then be my guest.
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Julio, he's right. They were going from bar to bar getting ****ed up, a couple of shiftless Latin black guys.
 
zitothebrave said:
Based on what is Harang due to fall off the cliff? Someone (nscapi?) last year said that all of the time, and he didn't. He isn't a star pitcher. But he's found a niche as a 4/5 moderate inning eater. Rasmus will falter, because he happens to be in a torrent of a hot streak, but as a player his ceiling is way higher than our LF, and Mukaki. Rasmus isn't having a career year yet, it will be if he stays healthy, but so are Maybin, Miller, Markakis (well a late career career year) KJ, and douchebag the catcher. Your case that the team isn't much better with the other guys is precedented on struggles from guys who never struggled in Atlanta and booms from guys who haven't produced at this level recently. I'm glad you finally caught on to your hypocrisy.
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What hypocrisy? Everything I have said I've backed up. I gave you a best case scenario in which my team plummets and yours sky rockets and I still only see maybe a 3 WAR positive on your part. Certainly I don't think that's going to happen. Truth be told I think the team I put together would still be better than yours. Eventually the pen will probably improve a bit as we keep adding new guys, Teheran could improve and Folty's replacement could be better. Really the only two players truly overreaching in the WAR department are Maybin and Miller. Markakis has his typical OPS, and KJ has like a negligible WAR. Not to mention Uribe is better than Johnson, imo. I didn't even bring him up.
 
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