Fredi fired

[GovClintonTyree]

IMO, new thinking got us Frank Wren and one of the worst farm systems in baseball.

It seems like some want to completely ignore any potential manager that has a tie to Bobby Cox. The line "new blood" is always used.

I'm not beholden to just looking at managers who have ties to Bobby. If you could give me any manager in baseball right now, give me Buck Showalter. He's by far the best manager in baseball today. He gets more out of his players than any other manager in the game. He's the one guy that I feel can take a crap team and actually get some production out of it.

Maddon is pretty good, too, though I think you're right about Showalter. I read yesterday that a good manager can make 3-6 wins difference in a season. That seems a little aggressive. Any of you guys know where that analysis is?

Bobby was not a great tactician, but my sense is that players played very well for him. And that's got to be difficult to quantify.

 

[AerchAngel]

I still don't like the fact you'd discount the guy who helped stockpile our organization before JS took over.

He's still a great baseball mind.

I'd personally cut JS before Cox. JS came here with the keys to the car and the highest payroll in the league. Cox built that car JS drove to the dance.

When he got the panties off after the dance, man on, 3rd two outs....he struck out 13 out of 14 times.

 

[thewupk]

I'm not sure where this fascination to distance the team from anything relating to Bobby Cox comes from. The guy is one of the greatest managers of all time. He's probably the single most important figure in the Braves outstanding success of the '90s and early '00s. I'm definitely more willing to listen to what Bobby has to say on an issue than some MIT grad who has come up with some logarithmic formula and developed a new, convoluted statistic.

Good to see you found a way to add in hate on statheads while trying to defend Bobby. Fact is Bobby and Co. is the reason Fredi was hired in the first place. Also likely the reason Wren was fired when he tried to fire Fredi at the end of 2014. It's the good ole boys network with him and JS and at some point this team needs to move on. They were amazing for this Franchise but it was also 20 years ago.

 

[KB21]

Maddon is pretty good, too, though I think you're right about Showalter. I read yesterday that a good manager can make 3-6 wins difference in a season. That seems a little aggressive. Any of you guys know where that analysis is?

Bobby was not a great tactician, but my sense is that players played very well for him. And that's got to be difficult to quantify.

IMO, I don't think you can quantify that. Much like Buck, you can't really put a number on how he can get his players to outperform their ability.

If you listen to some though, there is this belief that if a manager manages solely off a sheet with a statistical data set on it, he will never make the wrong decision.

 

[50PoundHead]

Maddon is pretty good, too, though I think you're right about Showalter. I read yesterday that a good manager can make 3-6 wins difference in a season. That seems a little aggressive. Any of you guys know where that analysis is?

Bobby was not a great tactician, but my sense is that players played very well for him. And that's got to be difficult to quantify.

The insufferable Whitey Herzog said something once to the effect that it's the manager's job to put players in situations where they have the best chance to succeed. I think a good manager does that and Bobby clearly did. You don't put guys in situations where they are likely to fail miserably. You play the percentages and understand your players' capabilities. Tactics are minimal, but bullpen usage patterns have become increasingly important. I really don't care about Fredi one way or the other. He probably was warming the chair for the next guy, but there's little question that the collection of talent that he was supplied with gives him a bit of a break with the general public (and me).

Because so many managers weren't particularly good players, I lazily lump them into two categories; there are those who really appreciate talent and those, who at some level, resent it. The ones who appreciate talent realize that the game is extremely difficult and the game is predicated on failure (for hitters), so talent needs to be coddled a bit. Those who resent it seem to think "these guys are all better than I was so they should be hitting .400 and there's no excuse for them not doing that." I don't know what category Fredi was in, but Bobby was clearly in the first. That doesn't mean looking the other way when guys start mailing it in or allowing guys to keep making the same stupid mistakes over and over again, but it also doesn't mean getting in their sh*t on a daily basis.

 

[smootness]

IMO, I don't think you can quantify that. Much like Buck, you can't really put a number on how he can get his players to outperform their ability.

If you listen to some though, there is this belief that if a manager manages solely off a sheet with a statistical data set on it, he will never make the wrong decision.

I don't know why you're so stuck on this. I don't think many believe that a manager could just as easily be a robot that only makes decisions according to certain statistics. But generally speaking, it's best to at least know those statistics.

And doing something like playing Inciarte in RF instead of Francoeur has nothing to do with a spreadsheet. It's just the obvious, smart thing to do.

 

[chop2chip]

IMO, I don't think you can quantify that. Much like Buck, you can't really put a number on how he can get his players to outperform their ability.

If you listen to some though, there is this belief that if a manager manages solely off a sheet with a statistical data set on it, he will never make the wrong decision.

That's some Shanksian level ignorance. Not a single dorky stat nerd would say "pick only the guy who thinks like a computer". If that was the case, then throw my name in the ring as manager.

I think most (probably everyone on this board actually) would prefer if our next manager understood probabilities and showed some creativity that typically is found more in saber metrics than old school spit and grind traditional baseball. The funny thing is that Fredi tried to be a saber metrics manager by going to conferences. It just wasn't his strong suit.

Math isn't evil and it would be good for our organization to embrace it.

 

[thewupk]

That's some Shanksian level ignorance. Not a single dorky stat nerd would say "pick only the guy who thinks like a computer". If that was the case, then throw my name in the ring as manager.

I think most (probably everyone on this board actually) would prefer if our next manager understood probabilities and showed some creativity that typically is found more in saber metrics than old school spit and grind traditional baseball. The funny thing is that Fredi tried to be a saber metrics manager by going to conferences. It just wasn't his strong suit.

Math isn't evil and it would be good for our organization to embrace it.

What's funny is that a lot of 'old school' stats are built on math. But because they have been around for a long time they are just 'part of the game'. The game has evolved and people's way of thinking needs to as well.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

That's some Shanksian level ignorance. Not a single dorky stat nerd would say "pick only the guy who thinks like a computer". If that was the case, then throw my name in the ring as manager.

I think most (probably everyone on this board actually) would prefer if our next manager understood probabilities and showed some creativity that typically is found more in saber metrics than old school spit and grind traditional baseball. The funny thing is that Fredi tried to be a saber metrics manager by going to conferences. It just wasn't his strong suit.

Math isn't evil and it would be good for our organization to embrace it.

So what Math do you use? I think that is what will separate good managers from bad. There are so many stats.. how he hits against Lefties, how he hits in day games after a night.. do you go with your best defense if the pitcher is a ground ball pitcher, even though the best defender doesn't fit the offensive splits.

 

[chop2chip]

So what Math do you use? I think that is what will separate good managers from bad. There are so many stats.. how he hits against Lefties, how he hits in day games after a night.. do you go with your best defense if the pitcher is a ground ball pitcher, even though the best defender doesn't fit the offensive splits.

Well, you certainly don't try to outthink yourself because you manage a team full of people not chess pieces. For one I would have my best hitters hit st the top of the lineup and stagger them L/R. Secondly, I would be aggressive in using defensive shifts (which Fredi did this year to his credit. Third, I would play the match ups, but base my match up decisions on actual data and not the "he's a lefty, so here's my righty" approach. I would use my best relievers in high leverage situations, although that one is harder for the closer because he's incentivized to want saves. Limitied bunting, etc.

That's basically it from a saber metric standpoint. It really doesn't have to be much more complicated than that. There isn't any advanced algorithm. It's mostly just doing the things baseball managers have been doing for decades.

Edit: I also want my manager to know what statistics are worthless. A good rule of thumb would be to take the stats Chip Caray references in a telecast and then ignore them. Your career batting average against NL central teams in day games probably isn't a good indicator of future success.

 

[bravesfanMatt]

Well, you certainly don't try to outthink yourself because you manage a team full of people not chess pieces. For one I would have my best hitters hit st the top of the lineup and stagger them L/R. Secondly, I would be aggressive in using defensive shifts (which Fredi did this year to his credit. Third, I would play the match ups, but base my match up decisions on actual data and not the "he's a lefty, so here's my righty" approach. I would use my best relievers in high leverage situations, although that one is harder for the closer because he's incentivized to want saves. Limitied bunting, etc.

That's basically it from a saber metric standpoint. It really doesn't have to be much more complicated than that. There isn't any advanced algorithm. It's mostly just doing the things baseball managers have been doing for decades.

I know.. but I am going to assume that is what the other guys was talking about. You have so many stats that you can't manage off a spreadsheet. yes you needs stats, but you have to have a feel for your players and situation to know which stats you are going to use. You also have to be savvy enough to understand that stats mean nothing if that player is in a new situation.

Take AJ for instance. He is used to starting and getting regular ABs.. this year he has been splitting time with Flowers. So conventional wisdom says AJ hits Righties very well... But is this factoring that AJ may need consistent playing time to stay in rhythm so that he can maintain those splits? this is just a random example with me not looking at any stats.. just saying, there is a lot more to HUMAN stats than just a bunch of numbers. We don't always react like our stats say we should and good managers will pick up on this faster than bad managers..

 

[57Brave]

All things considered Bobby (or name any manager) was a genius when Chipper hit HR's and Smoltz Maddox and Glavine were rollin'.
An idiot when Chipper flew out or Smoltz Galvine or Maddox didn't have it that day

Fredi never had prime Chipper or Smoltz Maddox or Glavine.
All the stats in the world won't help a player hit a splitter or a pitcher fool Bryce Harper.
They are good tools for gamblers and agents. Really not much else except message board fodder

It is the players. Always was. Always will be.
A poster wrote a manager is good for 3-4 wins a year.
Bill "Spaceman" Lee once wrote " the main job of the manager is to be sure everyone is on the bus from the hotel"

Fredi musta tried to leave without Daniel Castro

 

[chop2chip]

I know.. but I am going to assume that is what the other guys was talking about. You have so many stats that you can't manage off a spreadsheet. yes you needs stats, but you have to have a feel for your players and situation to know which stats you are going to use. You also have to be savvy enough to understand that stats mean nothing if that player is in a new situation.

Take AJ for instance. He is used to starting and getting regular ABs.. this year he has been splitting time with Flowers. So conventional wisdom says AJ hits Righties very well... But is this factoring that AJ may need consistent playing time to stay in rhythm so that he can maintain those splits? this is just a random example with me not looking at any stats.. just saying, there is a lot more to HUMAN stats than just a bunch of numbers. We don't always react like our stats say we should and good managers will pick up on this faster than bad managers..

Sure. There is a human element at stake that we outsiders can't begin to understand. The issue is have is that there is this assumption that some have that stat-mind folk don't understand the human element at all, so they completely disregard the analytics. It doesn't make sense.

It's a common misconception that it's the manager's job to maximize a player's talent. It's not. His job is to maximize wins. As for the AJ example, the manager's job isn't to make sure AJ is in rhythm. It's his job to make sure he maximizes production from the catcher's spot. If AJ needs consistent at bats to maintain his platoon advantage with the playe he's splitting time with then maybe it's best we find a different catcher who doesn't need consistent playing time.

 

[bravesnumberone]

The whole email thing is a complete joke and an utter lack of class by this front office. Their arrogance is disturbing.

 

[KB21]

All things considered Bobby (or name any manager) was a genius when Chipper hit HR's and Smoltz Maddox and Glavine were rollin'.
An idiot when Chipper flew out or Smoltz Galvine or Maddox didn't have it that day

Fredi never had prime Chipper or Smoltz Maddox or Glavine.
All the stats in the world won't help a player hit a splitter or a pitcher fool Bryce Harper.
They are good tools for gamblers and agents. Really not much else except message board fodder

It is the players. Always was. Always will be.
A poster wrote a manager is good for 3-4 wins a year.
Bill "Spaceman" Lee once wrote " the main job of the manager is to be sure everyone is on the bus from the hotel"

Fredi musta tried to leave without Daniel Castro

I agree with you on the stats, but I do believe there is more to managing than just that. IMO, first and foremost, you have to be able to manage personalities in the club house. You know to know which players need a pat on the back and which players need a kick in the rear end. This is where Bobby is unmatched by any other manager, IMO. Because of this, I believe Bobby was able to get the most out of his players. He also did a great job of putting his players into positions where they can succeed.

My biggest issue with Fredi isn't that he ignored statistical data in his decision making, which I don't believe he did. I never got the feeling that he had a good feel for his players from a physical or an emotional standpoint.

 

[KB21]

The whole email thing is a complete joke and an utter lack of class by this front office. Their arrogance is disturbing.

Agree. Coppy messed up on this. He needs to get his head out of the stats book, IMO.

 

[The Tariff King]

The whole email thing is a complete joke and an utter lack of class by this front office. Their arrogance is disturbing.

Never would I have seen the day where you're partially defending Fredi

 

[bravesnumberone]

Never would I have seen the day where you're partially defending Fredi

Pretty cut and dry, I'm not warm and fuzzy about the front office either. Like I said, I know when Fredi should have been fired. I'm not convinced the front office did. They just had an opportune time to make a scapegoat out of a bad manager of a team they cobbled together without much effort or care for actually improving. If we were 15-22, chances are he'd still be here. What's done is done now. I did not want the guy managing the team anymore, but I wish him the best. Unfortunately, we still have to deal with these guys, who, for all of their moves that have bolstered the farm system, have also shown a severe lack of judgment in other instances.

 

[rawwr]

Never would I have seen the day where you're partially defending Fredi

I don't think you have to be a Fredi supporter to think that was a pretty bad mistake. I certainly wanted him gone, but I expected it to be done in a professional way.

 

[bravesnumberone]

Why did they even have to wait for John Fart to be there? Is Coppy actually the GM or not? If he's not, that's a far bigger issue than anything we've seen on the field. Why was John Fart not in Pittsburgh on Monday anyway if now was the time? What about Monday's loss made it the night to do it over all the other terrible games? It just screams incompetence.