GDT: 09/12/'18 No TV game today.

striker42 said:
Duvall's numbers since coming too Atlanta are about as bad as humanly possible. But that's not the real reason for concern.

The reason for concern are the signs that his bat is slowing and his power is slipping. It's a 3 year trend, not just 50 PAs. Considering he just turned 30 and the fact he's never had a great eye or hit tool, he's a good bet to collapse as a hitter.
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I don't see it, you just don't like him based on his small sample here. He hit 33 homers in 2016, 31 homers last year with more doubles. His batting average was slightly better and his OPS similar. Obviously this year he has not been good, but still has 15 homers and a lot of runs saved defensively in LF. I still expect him to be a useful platoon player if used properly, even if he doesn't match his past big homerun seasons.
 
Braves1976 said:
I don't see it, you just don't like him based on his small sample here. He hit 33 homers in 2016, 31 homers last year with more doubles. His batting average was slightly better and his OPS similar. Obviously this year he has not been good, but still has 15 homers and a lot of runs saved defensively in LF. I still expect him to be a useful platoon player if used properly, even if he doesn't match his past big homerun seasons.
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I posted this in another thread.

One really concerning trend with Duvall is the number of infield flies hes been hitting. An infield flyball is essentially a srikeout. His IFFB% has been trending up. In 2016 it was 8.1%, in 2017 it was 12.0%, and this year it's 15.3% (league average is 11%).

When a hitter is seeing his bat slowing down he'll start being a little late on fastballs and start skying them straight up. Look at Dan Uggla's IFFB numbers for comparison. In 2010 (last year with the Fish) 6.8%, in 2011 (first year in Atlanta) 11.9%, in 2012 it was 16.9%.

Considering Duvall's age (30), it wouldn't be surprising if his bat speed was slowing a hair causing him to pop more balls up.

Another concerning stat for Duvall is his HR/FB. That has also been trending down. It was 17.8% in 2016, 14.9% last year, and just 12.1% this year. Considering Duvall's FB% has remained steady and his HR/FB has dropped, and considering his age, there's a very, very real chance that Duvall's power is declining.
 
striker42 said:
I posted this in another thread.

One really concerning trend with Duvall is the number of infield flies hes been hitting. An infield flyball is essentially a srikeout. His IFFB% has been trending up. In 2016 it was 8.1%, in 2017 it was 12.0%, and this year it's 15.3% (league average is 11%).

When a hitter is seeing his bat slowing down he'll start being a little late on fastballs and start skying them straight up. Look at Dan Uggla's IFFB numbers for comparison. In 2010 (last year with the Fish) 6.8%, in 2011 (first year in Atlanta) 11.9%, in 2012 it was 16.9%.

Considering Duvall's age (30), it wouldn't be surprising if his bat speed was slowing a hair causing him to pop more balls up.

Another concerning stat for Duvall is his HR/FB. That has also been trending down. It was 17.8% in 2016, 14.9% last year, and just 12.1% this year. Considering Duvall's FB% has remained steady and his HR/FB has dropped, and considering his age, there's a very, very real chance that Duvall's power is declining.
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Dan Uggla decline was at 32 years old, not 30, he hit 36 homers at age 31. Duvall will only be 30 next year, and even if his power is in decline that doesn't mean he cannot help with his plus defense in LF and in a platoon situation. Uggla was starting and getting over 630 AB's in those years. Duvall is not likely to see that here in Atlanta. AA will probably sign someone to platoon with him IMO.
 
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Braves1976 said:
Dan Uggla decline was at 32 years old, not 30, he hit 36 homers at age 31. Duvall will only be 30 next year, and even if his power is in decline that doesn't mean he cannot help with his plus defense in LF and in platoon situation. Uggla was starting and getting over 630 AB's in those years. Duvall is not likely to see that here in Atlanta. AA will probably sign someone to platoon with him IMO.
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Duvall turned 30 earlier this month. Different players age at different rates. But a 30 year old is past his physical peak by a couple years.

Uggla was also three times the hitter Duvall has ever been. Duvall has always been a flawed hitter who lived on his power. It should surprise no one if he collapses earlier than better hitters.
 
striker42 said:
Duvall turned 30 earlier this month. Different players age at different rates. But a 30 year old is past his physical peak by a couple years.

Uggla was also three times the hitter Duvall has ever been. Duvall has always been a flawed hitter who lived on his power. It should surprise no one if he collapses earlier than better hitters.
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Uggla was a bad defender at second, Duvall is a very good LFer even though he isn't good in RF. The problem with your argument is that you are trying to make out he is done. I am not buying. Plus I believe AA also got him for his defense in LF possibly looking to platoon him with someone like Michael Brantley next year. I wouldn't be surprised by that as AA has did stuff like this in Toronto in the past. Brantley is bad on defense but strong bat, so if we sign him you treat him like Tucker using Duvall for defense.
 
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BTW, despite costing a run in RF Duvall has a 2 DRS with us in a small sample in LF and has a 17 DRS for the year in LF. He saves a lot of runs in LF. AA pays attention to this and so even if he is just a platoon bat going forward Duvall could be a good piece next year.
 
I feel like I gave this same argument, defense wise regarding keeping Culberson early this year. That sure turned out better than any of us expected, even with Snit hardly using him defensively at his best position. I still say Culberson is an above average defender at short who can play all over (and that is mostly why AA stuck with him instead of waiving him). His bat this year has made that move look even wiser.
 
My issue is with Duvall at the plate though I do believe his outfield defense is overblown. You don't keep guys on the roster because they can play left well.

If Duvall can't hit then he can't take a roster spot. I have serious doubts about his availability to hit moving forward.
 
Braves1976 said:
I feel like I gave this same argument, defense wise regarding keeping Culberson early this year. That sure turned out better than any of us expected, even with Snit hardly using him defensively at his best position. I still say Culberson is an above average defender at short who can play all over (and that is mostly why AA stuck with him instead of waiving him). His bat this year has made that move look even wiser.
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I don't see Culberson as being above average defensively at short. Hes serviceable, but I don't think he's more than that.

I will admit that Dansby could be skewing my frame of reference.
 
striker42 said:
I don't see Culberson as being above average defensively at short. Hes serviceable, but I don't think he's more than that.

I will admit that Dansby could be skewing my frame of reference.
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Culberson has good range at short and has a 8 DRS at the position in 313.1 innings. If you saw that series vs the Cubs last year you wouldn't question him. He made some great great plays in that series at short. AA wanted him for his defense at short more than anything as he is average or below pretty much everywhere else. His DRS at short with us is 1 DRS this year and that is with some errors and not much playing time there. If played it regularly he would be impressive as in the past IMO.
 
striker42 said:
My issue is with Duvall at the plate though I do believe his outfield defense is overblown. You don't keep guys on the roster because they can play left well.

If Duvall can't hit then he can't take a roster spot. I have serious doubts about his availability to hit moving forward.
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I get it you, don't like him period. But if you don't think having a 17 DRS at any position is impressive well I cannot help you. The only question in keeping him as I see it as how much he'll cost in arbitration. You could see a Matt Adams situation if they think the raise is too high. But then again that may be less likely this off-season since we have a lot more to spend.
 
Braves1976 said:
I get it you, don't like him period. But if you don't think having a 17 DRS at any position is impressive well I cannot help you. The only question in keeping him as I see it as how much he'll cost in arbitration. You could see a Matt Adams situation if they think the raise is too high. But then again that may be less likely this off-season since we have a lot more to spend.
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My issue with touting his defense is that if all you can do is play left well, you have no business being on a roster. A light hitting but great defensive SS or catcher can stick but you need to do more than play LF well. There are plenty of strong defensive outfielders who play all three outfield positions well. Duvall is a LF only. He has to bring a fair bit of value with his bat.
 
Duvall defense is a non factor on the bench. Duvall as a part time corner outfielder is also not a good option next year. I just don’t see a roll for him on this team.
 
striker42 said:
I posted this in another thread.

One really concerning trend with Duvall is the number of infield flies hes been hitting. An infield flyball is essentially a srikeout. His IFFB% has been trending up. In 2016 it was 8.1%, in 2017 it was 12.0%, and this year it's 15.3% (league average is 11%).

When a hitter is seeing his bat slowing down he'll start being a little late on fastballs and start skying them straight up. Look at Dan Uggla's IFFB numbers for comparison. In 2010 (last year with the Fish) 6.8%, in 2011 (first year in Atlanta) 11.9%, in 2012 it was 16.9%.

Considering Duvall's age (30), it wouldn't be surprising if his bat speed was slowing a hair causing him to pop more balls up.

Another concerning stat for Duvall is his HR/FB. That has also been trending down. It was 17.8% in 2016, 14.9% last year, and just 12.1% this year. Considering Duvall's FB% has remained steady and his HR/FB has dropped, and considering his age, there's a very, very real chance that Duvall's power is declining.
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Sometimes an infield fly is actually a flyball halfway in the outfield that's dropped
 
striker42 said:
My issue with touting his defense is that if all you can do is play left well, you have no business being on a roster. A light hitting but great defensive SS or catcher can stick but you need to do more than play LF well. There are plenty of strong defensive outfielders who play all three outfield positions well. Duvall is a LF only. He has to bring a fair bit of value with his bat.
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Duvall isn't LF only as he has played well at first and okay at third in the past too. Not that he'll get much time at either position here.
 
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