GDT 3/30/26: Braves vs A’s - Good Elder or Bad Elder

thewupk said:
Elder can be a good pitcher when he's hitting the bottom of the zone with his sinker. His issue is command and he's not good enough to consistantly do that over a full season. When the command is off he's gonna get rocked. Overall though he's good enough to be a #5 starter on the cheap.
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Elder being the number 5 starter isn’t the problem. Elder being the number 4 starter is the problem.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
if no injuries, then it might make more sense to move someone like Holmes/Lopez/Strider to the pen and just keep Elder in the rotation under the circumstances that he is an 80 pitch pitcher unless the Braves are up by 4+ runs.
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And that's probably what would happen or should anyways. One of those 3 don't make it the whole season in the rotation.
 
Guess I wasn’t paying that close attention in the spring, but Bryce has significantly ramped up his change up. That’s a pretty noticeable change in spin rate.

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msstate7 said:
That kind of move would've been good. I want more upside if we sign a starter.
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I would too.. but if you are looking for a diamond in the bargain bins.. then maybe go with a guy that was once a diamond and not these journeyman types that have had good stretches but mostly suck.

that is why I liked the idea of Soroka/Buehler/trading for Sandy (which might not have even been a thing).. but getting guys who were good but trying to come back from injuries.
 
Metaphysicist said:
Guess I wasn’t paying that close attention in the spring, but Bryce has significantly ramped up his change up. That’s a pretty noticeable change in spin rate.

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I might be misremembering, but that feels more like a splitter spin than a change up spin... or maybe I am reversed.

yes splits usually carry less spin... that spin might be hard for statcast data to identify.. either that is an elite change up or a averagish splitter in the spin department at least.
 
CyYoung31 said:
Elder being the number 5 starter isn’t the problem. Elder being the number 4 starter is the problem.
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Sure. But Elder isn't the #4 starter. He's #6/#7 but got bumped up once 3 spots once other starters went down. Kind of like what your depth is supposed to do. It only looks bad because it happened at the start of the season. People wouldn't bitch as much if this took place in June.
 
so looking at Elder's game last night I don't statcast is labeling that change correctly. It has the profile of an above average splitter imo.. drops off the table. Also of note, Elder did not throw the 4 seamer hardly at all (which is his worst pitch) and mixed a few cutters in that is actually an above average pitch to go along with his average slider and average sinker. interested to see how he deploys this arsenal moving forward.. biggest issue I see right now is the delta in speed. everything seems to come in around the same MPH..
 
bravesfanMatt said:
But he could have had Soroka for less than 10 million.. which was what I wanted.
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Soroka is a dumpster diving move. AA made it clear he wasn't going to go after a starter unless he was a playoff starter type pitcher. Soroka may surprise everyone and return to being a good pitcher. He could just end up being a good depth type signing. But the last two years he's FIP is higher than Elder's is for his career. IMO that's just the guy he is now and I don't think spending 7.5 on that is a smart move just to have as depth. Only reason he gets mentioned around here is because he came up as a Brave.
 
thewupk said:
Soroka is a dumpster diving move. AA made it clear he wasn't going to go after a starter unless he was a playoff starter type pitcher. Soroka may surprise everyone and return to being a good pitcher. He could just end up being a good depth type signing. But the last two years he's FIP is higher than Elder's is for his career. IMO that's just the guy he is now and I don't think spending 7.5 on that is a smart move just to have as depth. Only reason he gets mentioned around here is because he came up as a Brave.
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I mention him because he was a legit #2 starter and then suffered two shitty leg injuries along with some minor arm issues trying to get back. He is a baseball savant and more likely to work his way back to the top of the hill imo.. having him at 8 million for either long relief/spot starter or pushing Holmes/Lopez to the pen would be no more of a dumpster dive than Perez/J. saurez...but with way more potential.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
so looking at Elder's game last night I don't statcast is labeling that change correctly. It has the profile of an above average splitter imo.. drops off the table. Also of note, Elder did not throw the 4 seamer hardly at all (which is his worst pitch) and mixed a few cutters in that is actually an above average pitch to go along with his average slider and average sinker. interested to see how he deploys this arsenal moving forward.. biggest issue I see right now is the delta in speed. everything seems to come in around the same MPH..
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Conceptually, changeups and splitters aren’t really that different—they are different grips doing the work of slowing down spin rate. Bryce is definitely still throwing a change.

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But you are correct that the new spin rate is closer to traditional splitter territory than his previous change which somehow had effectively the same spin as his fastball. I will assume Hefner pulled him aside and explained to him what the fuck a changeup is actually supposed to do.
 
thewupk said:
Sure. But Elder isn't the #4 starter. He's #6/#7 but got bumped up once 3 spots once other starters went down. Kind of like what your depth is supposed to do. It only looks bad because it happened at the start of the season. People wouldn't bitch as much if this took place in June.
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I don’t think this is the argument you think it is.
 
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