GDT 6/10/19: Running it back vs the Pirates

Tapate50 said:
So those few hot months didn’t happen or do we exclude them for everyone else too?
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It's called getting lucky. His numbers are remarkably consistent over the last 6+ years using WRC+

2013 1st Half: 98
2013 2nd Half: 72
2014 1st Half: 110
2014 2nd Half: 99
2015 1st Half: 106
2015 2nd Half: 107
2016 1st Half: 86
2016 2nd Half: 113
2017 1st Half: 99
2017 2nd Half: 86
2018 1st Half: 133
2018 2nd Half: 88
2019 1st Half: 108


There is one number in these half seasons that stands out way more than the others
 
thewupk said:
It's called getting lucky. His numbers are remarkably consistent over the last 6+ years using WRC+

2013 1st Half: 98
2013 2nd Half: 72
2014 1st Half: 110
2014 2nd Half: 99
2015 1st Half: 106
2015 2nd Half: 107
2016 1st Half: 86
2016 2nd Half: 113
2017 1st Half: 99
2017 2nd Half: 86
2018 1st Half: 133
2018 2nd Half: 88
2019 1st Half: 108


There is one number in these half seasons that stands out way more than the others
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yes correct
 
Super said:
he looks like the same right around average hitter he has been since 2013. outside a couple of months, he's been that guy for a long time.
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You have a terminal case of confirmation bias.

Mar/April 12.4% BB, 13.2%K 40% Hard, 46.7% Medium
May 14.3% BB, 11.6% K 42.2% Hard, 48.2% Medium

2018 10.2% BB, 11.3% K, 41.5% Hard, .345 wOBA
2019 12.8% BB, 11.3% K, 43.6% Hard, .343 wOBA (.356 xwOBA)


But a .235 BABIP in May has got you fired up about how he's regressed to career low points.

In reality, the numbers show he's been pretty much the same guy this year as he was for the totality of last year, which is substantially better than he had been the previous three years. I don't know why he's been better than he was, but it seems to be true. He is not a superstar by any stretch, but he's more than playable on a good team. he should lead off vs RHP, honestly.

I don't know how long it is likely to sustain, but there aren't really any signs of collapse at the moment.
 
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Southcack77 said:
You have a terminal case of confirmation bias.

Mar/April 12.4% BB, 13.2%K 40% Hard, 46.7% Medium
May 14.3% BB, 11.6% K 42.2% Hard, 48.2% Medium

2018 10.2% BB, 11.3% K, 41.5% Hard, .345 wOBA
2019 12.8% BB, 11.3% K, 43.6% Hard, .343 wOBA (.356 xwOBA)


But a .235 BABIP in May has got you fired up about how he's regressed to career low points.

In reality, the numbers show he's been pretty much the same guy this year as he was for the totality of last year, which is substantially better than he had been the previous three years. I don't know why he's been better than he was then, but it seems to be true. I don't know how long it is likely to sustain, but there aren't really any signs of collapse at the moment.
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Nothing gives this board the red ass like posters not trashing markakis and thethe making predictions/statements about players
 
Southcack77 said:
You have a terminal case of confirmation bias.

Mar/April 12.4% BB, 13.2%K 40% Hard, 46.7% Medium
May 14.3% BB, 11.6% K 42.2% Hard, 48.2% Medium

2018 10.2% BB, 11.3% K, 41.5% Hard, .345 wOBA
2019 12.8% BB, 11.3% K, 43.6% Hard, .343 wOBA (.356 xwOBA)


But a .235 BABIP in May has got you fired up about how he's regressed to career low points.

In reality, the numbers show he's been pretty much the same guy this year as he was for the totality of last year, which is substantially better than he had been the previous three years. I don't know why he's been better than he was then, but it seems to be true. I don't know how long it is likely to sustain, but there aren't really any signs of collapse at the moment.
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he's a 108 wRC+ this year.
he was at 114 wRC+ last year fueled by an unsustainable 133 number in the first half - a number far out of line with what he had done since 2013.
it's already been broken down:

2013 1st Half: 98
2013 2nd Half: 72
2014 1st Half: 110
2014 2nd Half: 99
2015 1st Half: 106
2015 2nd Half: 107
2016 1st Half: 86
2016 2nd Half: 113
2017 1st Half: 99
2017 2nd Half: 86
2018 1st Half: 133
2018 2nd Half: 88
2019 1st Half: 108

which of those numbers is the obvious outlier? i mean, you really can't see it? for real for real?
i'd bet he'll sink below the 108 for the 2nd half of this year.
 
msstate7 said:
Nothing gives this board the red ass like posters not trashing markakis and thethe making predictions/statements about players
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i hope i'm wrong about him. nothing outside a hot few months last season suggests i am. i am not thrilled with a league-average or below guy being the full-time RF - wild, i know.
 
Super said:
i hope i'm wrong about him. nothing outside a hot few months last season suggests i am. i am not thrilled with a league-average or below guy being the full-time RF - wild, i know.
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You know where the improvement in his numbers is coming from, slugging %. The rise occurred at the beginning of last season, which happened to be when the mlb ball became more like a tennis ball. Perhaps the ball change has benefitted markakis.
 
Super said:
he's a 108 wRC+ this year.
he was at 114 wRC+ last year fueled by an unsustainable 133 number in the first half - a number far out of line with what he had done since 2013.
it's already been broken down:

2013 1st Half: 98
2013 2nd Half: 72
2014 1st Half: 110
2014 2nd Half: 99
2015 1st Half: 106
2015 2nd Half: 107
2016 1st Half: 86
2016 2nd Half: 113
2017 1st Half: 99
2017 2nd Half: 86
2018 1st Half: 133
2018 2nd Half: 88
2019 1st Half: 108

which of those numbers is the obvious outlier? i mean, you really can't see it? for real for real?
i'd bet he'll sink below the 108 for the 2nd half of this year.
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Maybe you and Virginia should get together for a beer and discuss how much you don't understand why people want to use the new-fangled metrics.


But if you want to use old school metrics, Markakis is hitting 8% above the major league average despite getting extremely unlucky ball in play results in May.
 
msstate7 said:
You know where the improvement in his numbers is coming from, slugging %. The rise occurred at the beginning of last season, which happened to be when the mlb ball became more like a tennis ball. Perhaps the ball change has benefitted markakis.
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why did it only benefit him for a few months and then drop off
 
Southcack77 said:
Maybe you and Virginia should get together for a beer and discuss how much you don't understand why people want to use the new-fangled metrics.


But if you want to use old school metrics, Markakis is hitting 8% above the major league average despite getting extremely unlucky ball in play results in May.
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lmao is wRC+ an outdated statistic, equal to RBI?
his BABIP was .364 in March/April.........................................for the season, it's .294.................
 
msstate7 said:
You know where the improvement in his numbers is coming from, slugging %. The rise occurred at the beginning of last season, which happened to be when the mlb ball became more like a tennis ball. Perhaps the ball change has benefitted markakis.
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If you look at xwOBA, Markakis has been this guy in 3 of the last 4 seasons:

2016 .343
2018 .345
2019 .343

Whatever reason he was making weak contact in 2015 and 2017.
 
Southcack77 said:
If you look at xwOBA, Markakis has been this guy in 3 of the last 4 seasons:

2016 .343
2018 .345
2019 .343

Whatever reason he was making weak contact in 2015 and 2017.
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1.2 WAR in 2016
2.6 last year
will be around 1-1.2 this year
yippee he's actually good?
 
Super said:
lmao is wRC+ an outdated statistic, equal to RBI?
his BABIP was .364 in March/April.........................................for the season, it's .294.................
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Sorry, man. Hate to be the one to break it to you. Maybe borrow that sixth grade math book that the Mississippi people all share and catch up. DeNiro did it in that one movie. you can too.

.....

His career BABIP is .316. If MLB average is roughly .300, his .220 BABIP in May is still grossly low.
 
Southcack77 said:
Sorry, man. Hate to be the one to break it to you. Maybe borrow that sixth grade math book that the Mississippi people all share and catch up. DeNiro did it in that one movie. you can too.

.....

His career BABIP is .316. If MLB average is roughly .300, his .220 BABIP in May is still grossly low.
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LOL
you're citing his unlucky May as some sort of evidence of something.....
i cited his basically equally lucky March/April.......
 
i'm pretty sure wRC/wRC+ incorporates wOBA so calling wRC+ an "old school metric" while wOBA is "new fangled" is interesting.
 
Southcack77;600732 His career BABIP is .316. If MLB average is roughly .300 said:
sorry, man. his BABIP in May was .235, not .220.
and sorry, man, but his BABIP in March/April was .364.
to be real rough with it, if you add those numbers together and divide by 2, what do ya get?
sorry, man - hate to be the one to break it to you....
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Super said:
sorry, man. his BABIP in May was .235, not .220.
and sorry, man, but his BABIP in March/April was .364.
to be real rough with it, if you add those numbers together and divide by 2, what do ya get?
sorry, man - hate to be the one to break it to you....
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Or you could just look at his total for the year, .294. That's 20 points lower than career
 
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