GDT 6/13/19: Going for Lucky Number 7

Great job by Teheran, Swarzak and Blevins today among our pitchers. Teheran got a well deserved win. Swarzak deserved the save today for keeping the Pirates from making it at least 6-5, as they could've with only a sac-fly. That inning ending as it did gave us just enough to hold on for the 6-5 win in the end. Nice to have a lead of 1 and a half up with the Philly rematch coming.
 
50PoundHead said:
Gotta give it up for Julion. Constant puzzler to me how he's getting it done, but getting it done he is.
Click to expand...

Julio has always been a guy who has consistently out performed his peripherals by about .5 runs. My theory is his excellent pick off move eliminates base runners, and also decreases the amount of base running value opponents can accumulate...which isn't reflected in FIP/xFIP/xwOBA.

Right now he is out performing his peripherals by 2x-3x his usual amount.

The answer: .238 BABIP, 80.7% LOB, and 10.1% HR/FB rates.

Mystery solved. He's the back end starter we know he is, getting some unsustainable results.
 
Julion's career BABIP is .267 coming into today's game. He's outperforming that this year, but presumably regression means something close to his career number for the rest of the season. Last year he had a BABIP of .217.
 
Entering today

League WOBA .322
Teheran xWOBA .313

He's doing about as well as you can expect (which isn't bad) and is getting some luck to suppress actual runs given up.
 
thewupk said:
Entering today

League WOBA .322
Teheran xWOBA .313

He's doing about as well as you can expect (which isn't bad) and is getting some luck to suppress actual runs given up.
Click to expand...

There are a couple things different this year. One is increased usage of the change. 11.0% in 2019 versus 9.5% last year and 7.2% in 2017. Throwing the change more might be helping his sinker play up.

The other item to note is his ground ball percentage has ticked up to a career high of 40.6%, up from 38.0% last year. His sinker is grading out as his best pitch this year. It actually started grading higher last year and has continued to improve.

It seems to me to the extent there is an actual improvement in Julion's pitching this year, it is something very subtle that has to do with how he is mixing his pitches. The BABIP and sequencing luck hasn't hurt, but I don't think it is the entire story.
 
Last edited:
Enscheff said:
Julio has always been a guy who has consistently out performed his peripherals by about .5 runs. My theory is his excellent pick off move eliminates base runners, and also decreases the amount of base running value opponents can accumulate...which isn't reflected in FIP/xFIP/xwOBA.

Right now he is out performing his peripherals by 2x-3x his usual amount.

The answer: .238 BABIP, 80.7% LOB, and 10.1% HR/FB rates.

Mystery solved. He's the back end starter we know he is, getting some unsustainable results.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I'm waiting for a massive blow-up-type game or a few crappers in a row to normalize his numbers.
 
@DOBrienATL
58m58 minutes ago
More
#Braves' Teheran is 3-0 with an 0.81 ERA in eight starts since the end of April, allowing just 21 hits, four earned runs and no homers in 44 2/3 innings over that span.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top