GDT 6/13: Strider, and a Hard Rain’s Gonna Fall

50PoundHead said:
I don't think he's in line for helping the big club, but as it stands right now, we only have one what I would call legitimate 1B prospect in the entire system (McCabe at Rome). If Olson were to go down, we'd have nothing.
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If Olson were to go down, TDA or Murphy need to get a 1b mitt until we make a trade. Honestly I'm surprised they haven't entertained the idea of Ozuna taking some reps at 1B for emergency use.

That, or send Riley to 1b and call up Grissom to play 3b. I prefer option A though, because Grissom's bat just ain't there yet.
 
Carp said:
I mean Acuna isn't even the best hitter in baseball this year. He's been great, but let's not go overboard.
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Him and Carroll are so close right now they are basically interchangeable.

Acuna: 3.5 fWAR
Carroll: 3.4 fWAR

Acuna: 163 wRC+
Carroll: 165 wRC+

Acuna: .452 xwOBA
Carroll: .358 xwOBA

Looking at the above data, I think Acuna has been better... their raw offensive metrics are almost identical and while Carroll has been amazing, it is clear that he is benefitting from some real luck based on his expected wOBA. That's almost a 100 point difference in expected wOBA. Still, what Carroll is doing as a rookie is insane. I was really hoping he would fall to us somehow in that draft.

Acuna's first in the MLB in xwOBA with .452... second place is Freeman with a .433... you could certainly make the argument Acuna is the best hitter in baseball at this point of the year.
 
Super said:
Judge is first in MLB in xwOBA. That’s prob who he’s talking about.
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Somehow I completely forgot about Judge... he's not on the Fangraphs leader board as I guess he doesn't make the threshold for plate appearances because of injury.
 
zbhargrove said:
Him and Carroll are so close right now they are basically interchangeable.

Acuna: 3.5 fWAR
Carroll: 3.4 fWAR

Acuna: 163 wRC+
Carroll: 165 wRC+

Acuna: .452 xwOBA
Carroll: .358 xwOBA

Looking at the above data, I think Acuna has been better... their raw offensive metrics are almost identical and while Carroll has been amazing, it is clear that he is benefitting from some real luck based on his expected wOBA. That's almost a 100 point difference in expected wOBA. Still, what Carroll is doing as a rookie is insane. I was really hoping he would fall to us somehow in that draft.

Acuna's first in the MLB in xwOBA with .452... second place is Freeman with a .433... you could certainly make the argument Acuna is the best hitter in baseball at this point of the year.
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BA:
Acuna- .333
Carroll- .311

BABIP:
Acuna- .347
Carroll- .348

Based on that you'd say both have had similar luck. But look at xBA...

xBA
Acuna- .349
Carroll- .264

What's crazy is that Acuna might actually have had bad luck...with a .347 BABIP. Compare their xwOBAs:

xwOBA:
Acuna- .452
Carroll- .358

Acuna's xwOBA is almost 100 points higher than Carroll's. The most telling stat to me in all of this is EV...

EV:
Acuna- 94.9
Carroll- 91.1

Acuna's average EV is second in the game. Only Yandy Diaz has a higher one (Diaz's post 30 year old EV jump is weird). Carroll's 91.1 is good for 48th in the game.

Finally, compare their xwOBA + xSLG
Acuna- 1.102
Carroll- .816

Carroll is having a good year, a year worthy of a ROY award. He's also a good bet to be a superstar. But it really does look like he's been insanely lucky. Ronald's numbers are rock solid. Probably a little lower than they should be considering how he's been hitting.
 
striker42 said:
BA:
Acuna- .333
Carroll- .311

BABIP:
Acuna- .347
Carroll- .348

Based on that you'd say both have had similar luck. But look at xBA...

xBA
Acuna- .349
Carroll- .264

What's crazy is that Acuna might actually have had bad luck...with a .347 BABIP. Compare their xwOBAs:

xwOBA:
Acuna- .452
Carroll- .358

Acuna's xwOBA is almost 100 points higher than Carroll's. The most telling stat to me in all of this is EV...

EV:
Acuna- 94.9
Carroll- 91.1

Acuna's average EV is second in the game. Only Yandy Diaz has a higher one (Diaz's post 30 year old EV jump is weird). Carroll's 91.1 is good for 48th in the game.

Finally, compare their xwOBA + xSLG
Acuna- 1.102
Carroll- .816

Carroll is having a good year, a year worthy of a ROY award. He's also a good bet to be a superstar. But it really does look like he's been insanely lucky. Ronald's numbers are rock solid. Probably a little lower than they should be considering how he's been hitting.
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I don't think BABIP is as important to look for luck anymore now that we have expected stats... expected stats are more of a true measure of luck IMO... this just comes up with the exact same conclusion.
 
zbhargrove said:
I don't think BABIP is as important to look for luck anymore now that we have expected stats... expected stats are more of a true measure of luck IMO... so basically you typed all that out to come up with the exact same conclusion.
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More to show exactly how far apart the two are. Carroll's luck has been Arcia-like.
 
zbhargrove said:
Him and Carroll are so close right now they are basically interchangeable.

Acuna: 3.5 fWAR
Carroll: 3.4 fWAR

Acuna: 163 wRC+
Carroll: 165 wRC+

Acuna: .452 xwOBA
Carroll: .358 xwOBA

Looking at the above data, I think Acuna has been better... their raw offensive metrics are almost identical and while Carroll has been amazing, it is clear that he is benefitting from some real luck based on his expected wOBA. That's almost a 100 point difference in expected wOBA. Still, what Carroll is doing as a rookie is insane. I was really hoping he would fall to us somehow in that draft.

Acuna's first in the MLB in xwOBA with .452... second place is Freeman with a .433... you could certainly make the argument Acuna is the best hitter in baseball at this point of the year.
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Ohtani has been a bit better, imo, purely as a hitter. Currently leads the majors in HRs and total bases. 2nd in OPS, 3rd in wRC+. I mean granted it's close, but the point is that while Acuna is indeed having a great year from a hitting standpoint, it's not an exactly an all-time type of season purely as a hitter.

And certainly when looking at recent years, it's not really on par with Judge in 2022, Harper in 21, or Trout basically any time from 2012-2019.
 
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Also, to tell on myself, I hadn't looked at the stats in nearly a week, and at that time Freeman was leading in wOBA, xwOBA and WRC+.
 
Carp said:
Ohtani has been a bit better, imo, purely as a hitter. Currently leads the majors in HRs and total bases. 2nd in OPS, 3rd in wRC+. I mean granted it's close, but the point is that while Acuna is indeed having a great year from a hitting standpoint, it's not an exactly an all-time type of season purely as a hitter.

And certainly when looking at recent years, it's not really on par with Judge in 2022, Harper in 21, or Trout basically any time from 2012-2019.
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Ohtani's xwOBA is .394 compared to Acuna's .452

That's a fairly substantial gap but their raw stats are pretty close. I think when he was talking about not seeing a hitter as locked in as Acuna it was more about the quality of his contact... I mean dude has more 110+ mph hit balls by himself than most teams and has a ton more than second place. His hard hit data is insane.
 
with Acuna's stolen base threat and speed, I think he is the better overall offensive player.. Judge and Showhey have the power, Carrol matches the speed.. but Acuna is elite in both.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
with Acuna's stolen base threat and speed, I think he is the better overall offensive player.. Judge and Showhey have the power, Carrol matches the speed.. but Acuna is elite in both.
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Carrol actually has a higher ISO and BSR than Acuna. But as has been said his xWOBA is a good 60 points lower than his WOBA. To me that suggests he won't keep at this pace the remainder of the year.

Acuna is going to have a lot of plate appearances to help pad that WAR total due to batting leadoff on a great hitting team.
 
zbhargrove said:
Ohtani's xwOBA is .394 compared to Acuna's .452

That's a fairly substantial gap but their raw stats are pretty close. I think when he was talking about not seeing a hitter as locked in as Acuna it was more about the quality of his contact... I mean dude has more 110+ mph hit balls by himself than most teams and has a ton more than second place. His hard hit data is insane.
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Yeah, it’s about how hard Ronald is hitting absolutely everything.
 
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