GDT 8/16 - The Thing From Pembroke invades Little Havana

50PoundHead said:
I still think it's somehow going to boil down to the last series against the Phillies.
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They have overperformed thus far while we have underperformed.

I think Snit is setting the playoff rotation by the end of the third week in September.
 
Enscheff said:
I have been assured Preller is the best GM on the planet because he makes more flashy moves than AA, despite never winning anything.
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Their collapse this year is fascinating.

THe roster looks to be talented but its all crashing down to where they might even miss the play in game.
 
thethe said:
They have overperformed thus far while we have underperformed.

I think Snit is setting the playoff rotation by the end of the third week in September.
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I think if you line the two teams up as is with us obviously suffering because of Acuna's absence, the Braves and Phillies are pretty even. I find it hard to believe that we've underperformed as we've beaten up on some bad teams (except the Reds) over the past two weeks. Our schedules are remarkably similar from here to the end. There's a reason they play the games.
 
50PoundHead said:
I think if you line the two teams up as is with us obviously suffering because of Acuna's absence, the Braves and Phillies are pretty even. I find it hard to believe that we've underperformed as we've beaten up on some bad teams (except the Reds) over the past two weeks. Our schedules are remarkably similar from here to the end. There's a reason they play the games.
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But you could argue we underperformed even before that?

I just don't see where the Phillies are better than us in any area. I guess Wheeler is the best pitcher on either team but I'd be comfortable with either Morton or Fried lining up against him.
 
thethe said:
But you could argue we underperformed even before that?

I just don't see where the Phillies are better than us in any area. I guess Wheeler is the best pitcher on either team but I'd be comfortable with either Morton or Fried lining up against him.
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Phillies are better in RF, C and at number 1 SP with Wheeler. I think 2B has put up similar results at the plate but Ozzie is better all around. 1B is closer in production this year than I would like, but FF is still the clear winner to me. LF is probably similar. CF isn't great for anyone unless we think Joc can really play that spot.

I know their pen has been historically awful, but they did make some moves at the deadline. Our Pen isn't great.

Our advantages are SS and 3B this year. TDA closing the gap in Catcher production. SP depth numbers 2-3. Not being the Phillies.
 
Russ2dollas said:
Phillies are better in RF, C and at number 1 SP with Wheeler. I think 2B has put up similar results at the plate but Ozzie is better all around. 1B is closer in production this year than I would like, but FF is still the clear winner to me. LF is probably similar. CF isn't great for anyone unless we think Joc can really play that spot.

I know their pen has been historically awful, but they did make some moves at the deadline. Our Pen isn't great.

Our advantages are SS and 3B this year. TDA closing the gap in Catcher production. SP depth numbers 2-3. Not being the Phillies.
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Definitely got us at catcher and right field but I still like Morton or Fried against Wheeler even though he has been phenomenal this year. Their lack of depth in pitching will make it easy for us by the end of September.
 
thewupk said:
Shouldn't getting Tatis but giving up Turner cancel each other out.
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Turner seems to get overrated a good bit. He's been a very good player when he's healthy. Trouble is, he's rarely been healthy for a full season. Before this year he had exactly one 4+ fWAR season. Granted, that includes the shortened COVID season, but still.

Tatis has injury problems too, but he's still so much better than Turner.
 
thethe said:
Geez - I remember a time where I wanted this team to sell.

Thank God I'm not the GM!!!
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I'm glad we're winning. And if we weren't going to sell, AA made the exact type of moves I would have made to give us a chance.

I still don't think we have much of a chance in the post-season, so I would still sell if we could go back. Given the market for pitchers, we could have gotten a big haul for Morton, Smyly, Smith, Jackson, and Matzek.

Right now, we're beating up on some mediocre/bad teams. Let's see what happens when we face the Yankees, Giants, and Dodgers in the next couple of weeks. If we can come out of those series 5-3 or better, I'd feel much better about our chances if we get to the post-season.
 
I don't know how things are going to play out this season, but I'm just happy we're still playing meaningful games in mid-August after the infuriating first few months of the year. Maybe we'll pull it out, maybe we won't, but it's actually entertaining baseball, and that's not nothing.
 
People don’t care about division titles. What has AA actually accomplished on the winning front?
 
msstate7 said:
Fangraphs now has us at 51.0% to win division. Still think this is as worthless as it was when we were like 5%
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Yes, it's completely worthless, imo. I can't believe we have to deal with folks citing it like it's fact.

It's like the percent chance of winning graph ESPN runs during games.

Just a passing acquaintenance with reality and history knows that stuff is silly.
 
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thethe said:
But you could argue we underperformed even before that?

I just don't see where the Phillies are better than us in any area. I guess Wheeler is the best pitcher on either team but I'd be comfortable with either Morton or Fried lining up against him.
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We underperformed dramatically up until August. I just don't think the Phillies overperformed. They probably underperformed as well.
 
Southcack77 said:
Yes, it's completely worthless, imo. I can't believe we have to deal with folks citing it like it's fact.

It's like the percent chance of winning graph ESPN runs.

Just a passing acquaintenance with reality and history knows that stuff is silly.
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Just shows we are living in that 5% timeline
 
50PoundHead said:
We underperformed dramatically up until August. I just don't think the Phillies overperformed. They probably underperformed as well.
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Phillies are performing close to as expected. Preseason Fangraphs had them 80-82. Their current pythag suggests they should be 57-61. Instead they are actually 61-57 thanks to a 22-15 record in 1 run games.

They are basically a .500 team behaving like a .500 team.

Braves have underperformed for various reasons. Poor luck to start the year and lots of injuries in the middle part.

Braves have the better team but anything can happen in 6 weeks
 
msstate7 said:
Fangraphs now has us at 51.0% to win division. Still think this is as worthless as it was when we were like 5%
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I'm on record as having given up the moment Acuña went down; and I'm not going to suddenly un-give-up now, because that's a quitter's move.

Having said that, I put slightly more stock in that current 51% than that earlier 5%, just because the Team from Cobb County has the only positive run-differential in their division, and it's 100 runs better than the next closest team. That fact would give me hope, if I weren't sticking to my guns of having already given up hope.
 
jpx7 said:
I'm on record as having given up the moment Acuña went down; and I'm not going to suddenly un-give-up now, because that's a quitter's move.

Having said that, I put slightly more stock in that current 51% than that earlier 5%, just because the Team from Cobb County has the only positive run-differential in their division, and it's 100 runs better than the next closest team. That fact would give me hope, if I weren't sticking to my guns of having already given up hope.
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This is good logic
 
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