GDT 9/14/20 - Touki returns

clvclv said:
Which (to also pile on to earlier rants from me as well) appears to be an organizational problem - particularly at the upper levels.

There isn't any legitimate question about the TALENT stockpiled during the rebuild, it's about being able to make adjustments and taking steps forward.
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Seems to me there was an organizational philosophy, particularly during the Coppalella era, to acquire "electric arms" with the belief that teaching auxiliary pitches and control was possible while teaching 97 is not.

I think some things are teachable - a better grip on your slider, maybe - but I have never believed that every pitcher is capable of command/control, and I think believing that is a bit of a fool's errand.

Toussaint and Newcomb are unlikely to ever know where the ball is going. 1:50 shot that either one of them has the enormous improvement in command that would be required to approach their "high ceiling" status. I'll be wrong very occasionally, but mostly I'll be right.

Touki is wilder than a truckload of starving kangaroos.
 
First, we need to realize a couple things about the results Touki has been getting...

A 33.3% HR/FB rate as absurdly high, and is impossible to remain that bad. Literally a third of the balls in the air vs Touki have left the park, and that's insane.

A 50.2% LOB rate is almost equally as unsustainable. A rate around 70% is normal, and isn't something pitchers tend to be able to control.

Having said that, it's not like Touki is pitching well by any means. A BB/9 of 6 isn't going to work, period.

Why can't Braves pitches throw strikes? No idea, but it does seem to be a consistent theme with most of the young arms with impact potential lately. Is it a development problem? Are we just crying because they are Braves pitchers, and all teams have similar issues? Again, no idea, but when I see a guy like Touki and Wright struggling to control 5 pitches, I can only wonder, "why in the world is he trying to execute 5 pitches rather than his 3 best pitches?". Can't folks see Anderson succeed by executing 3 good pitches, and realize "hey, I don't need a SL and a CU to succeed if I execute the SI, CU and Split"?

Further, why can't the Braves quickly identify which of those 3 pitches are the best? Touki's FA with its 7" of rise is clearly too flat to be useful, so why is he using it 7x as often as the SI with plus or better sink and arm side run? He threw the SI much more often in 2018, so did someone suggest he switch to the inferior fastball variant in a misguided attempt to improve his control?

Wright is a talented arm who is the same guy he was in college, and Touki even more talented (nearly Fried-level talented). There is no reason a professional coaching staff shouldn't be able to turn that talent into production. I suspect someone will, and I hope it's the Braves.
 
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See I wanted to say all that but that is too many words to put together without screwing up. So I just whine and point my finger at Kranny. Can I get credit for saying all that first still? No. Ok I will see myself out.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
Seems to me there was an organizational philosophy, particularly during the Coppalella era, to acquire "electric arms" with the belief that teaching auxiliary pitches and control was possible while teaching 97 is not.

I think some things are teachable - a better grip on your slider, maybe - but I have never believed that every pitcher is capable of command/control, and I think believing that is a bit of a fool's errand.

Toussaint and Newcomb are unlikely to ever know where the ball is going. 1:50 shot that either one of them has the enormous improvement in command that would be required to approach their "high ceiling" status. I'll be wrong very occasionally, but mostly I'll be right.

Touki is wilder than a truckload of starving kangaroos.
Click to expand...

In the rebuild they took flyers on high upside arms, but they've never really as an organization been super focused on raw stuff. They tend to pass on those guys in favor of more well rounded prospects.

Touki is almost his own animal since the Braves just ate salary to acquire him. I think there is plenty of time for him to figure out what works, but I also think it's looking like he might settle in as a high leverage reliever.

In general though, the Braves have rarely prioritized raw stuff. They tend to look for all around ability. The former draft strategy was to take guys like Soroka, Allard, Anderson over raw stuff. They would take their shots at stuff in the later rounds on more obscure guys.
 
Enscheff said:
First, we need to realize a couple things about the results Touki has been getting...

A 33.3% HR/FB rate as absurdly high, and is impossible to remain that bad. Literally a third of the balls in the air vs Touki have left the park, and that's insane.

A 50.2% LOB rate is almost equally as unsustainable. A rate around 70% is normal, and isn't something pitchers tend to be able to control.

Having said that, it's not like Touki is pitching well by any means. A BB/9 of 6 isn't going to work, period.

Why can't Braves pitches throw strikes? No idea, but it does seem to be a consistent theme with most of the young arms with impact potential lately. Is it a development problem? Are we just crying because they are Braves pitchers, and all teams have similar issues? Again, no idea, but when I see a guy like Touki and Wright struggling to control 5 pitches, I can only wonder, "why in the world is he trying to execute 5 pitches rather than his 3 best pitches?". Can't folks see Anderson succeed by executing 3 good pitches, and realize "hey, I don't need a SL and a CU to succeed if I execute the SI, CU and Split"?

Further, why can't the Braves quickly identify which of those 3 pitches are the best? Touki's FA with its 7" of rise is clearly too flat to be useful, so why is he using it 7x as often as the SI with plus or better sink and arm side run? He threw the SI much more often in 2018, so did someone suggest he switch to the inferior fastball variant in a misguided attempt to improve his control?

Wright is a talented arm who is the same guy he was in college, and Touki even more talented (nearly Fried-level talented). There is no reason a professional coaching staff shouldn't be able to turn that talent into production. I suspect someone will, and I hope it's the Braves.
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I feel like the Braves are probably pretty good at spotting and developing players into prospects.

It feels like they maybe are kind of average at maxing out their MLB ability.

But on the other hand, Soroka, Fried, Anderson, Folty is a pretty decent hit rate all things considered.

Touki might well be a leverage reliever.
 
Southcack77 said:
In the rebuild they took flyers on high upside arms, but they've never really as an organization been super focused on raw stuff. They tend to pass on those guys in favor of more well rounded prospects.

Touki is almost his own animal since the Braves just ate salary to acquire him. I think there is plenty of time for him to figure out what works, but I also think it's looking like he might settle in as a high leverage reliever.

In general though, the Braves have rarely prioritized raw stuff. They tend to look for all around ability. The former draft strategy was to take guys like Soroka, Allard, Anderson over raw stuff. They would take their shots at stuff in the later rounds on more obscure guys.
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I would like to see them go after more stuff, but can’t complain about Soroka and Anderson. Allard was the highest prep arm in that draft if i remember right...he just never regained his velo after surgery. So that was just a high risk, high reward pick that didn’t work out. I would have rather them picked someone else in the first round, but there was just a good a chance for a young guy to come back throwing 95 and with his pitch selection and control...he would have been a beast.

Since the rebuild, we have had plenty of pitching busts from trades...not too many drafted high. In fact even Allard and Wentz brought us a nice return. Soroka and Anderson appear to be hits. Muller still has a chance. Wilson has done fine from where he was picked....heck even Minter.

That really only leaves Wright as a bust or boom guy that was a high pick and he had dropped and was considered a steal at where we drafted him.
 
TheBravos said:
I would like to see them go after more stuff, but can’t complain about Soroka and Anderson. Allard was the highest prep arm in that draft if i remember right...he just never regained his velo after surgery. So that was just a high risk, high reward pick that didn’t work out. I would have rather them picked someone else in the first round, but there was just a good a chance for a young guy to come back throwing 95 and with his pitch selection and control...he would have been a beast.

Since the rebuild, we have had plenty of pitching busts from trades...not too many drafted high. In fact even Allard and Wentz brought us a nice return. Soroka and Anderson appear to be hits. Muller still has a chance. Wilson has done fine from where he was picked....heck even Minter.

That really only leaves Wright as a bust or boom guy that was a high pick and he had dropped and was considered a steal at where we drafted him.
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Allard had the one spring or summer where he was popping mid 90s and the Braves tend to be believers in that kind of thing. They were kind of enjoyed taking injury risk it seems like.

I guess the stress fracture in allard's case should have been a red flag.
 
TheBravos said:
I would like to see them go after more stuff, but can’t complain about Soroka and Anderson. Allard was the highest prep arm in that draft if i remember right...he just never regained his velo after surgery. So that was just a high risk, high reward pick that didn’t work out. I would have rather them picked someone else in the first round, but there was just a good a chance for a young guy to come back throwing 95 and with his pitch selection and control...he would have been a beast.

Since the rebuild, we have had plenty of pitching busts from trades...not too many drafted high. In fact even Allard and Wentz brought us a nice return. Soroka and Anderson appear to be hits. Muller still has a chance. Wilson has done fine from where he was picked....heck even Minter.

That really only leaves Wright as a bust or boom guy that was a high pick and he had dropped and was considered a steal at where we drafted him.
Click to expand...


I think even Wright is an example of a guy with multiple good tools rather than one or two overpowering ones. I was a little uneasy about him just because he'd not been dominant at Vandy, but as a value play it seemed pretty sound.

He's also the first draft pick of the new regime really, so I don't guess we quite know what they think about pitching. I'd say Shuler is pretty on past brand though.
 
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