GDT: Braves @ Cardinals w/ a Chip on their shoulder.

Enscheff said:
Very good point and you may be onto something.

BA on pulled liners:
2023: .707
2022: .678
2021: .683

But also keeping in mind a lot of the stolen hits were on balls hit up the middle...

BA on pulled/middle liners:
2023: .669
2022: .640
2021: .646

BA on pulled/middle grounders:
2023: .213
2022: .214
2021: .214

So it looks like we might be seeing a ~25 point increase in BA on liners, while no real benefit to grounders.

We are getting into small sample size issues for a single player, but Olson hit 65 and 66 such balls in 2022 and 2021. Adding 25 points to his BA on those balls would add 1.65 hits, so this "dozens of extra hits" narrative is still outlandish.
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I'd be curious to see these numbers exclusively for left-handed hitters. It seems like having the rover playing in shallow RF would be more of a detriment to lefties than having three IF on the left side for right-handers.

Teams are still going to shift as far as possible on ground balls. The off-side middle infielder will still likely play as close to the bag as allowed. For this reason the lack of difference on ground balls makes a lot of sense.

It also brings up the point that, if this is all the effect we're going to see from removing the shift, was it really worth teams' time to do it in the first place?
 
DirkPiggler said:
It seems like it always takes a little time for his curveball to come around. If his curve isn't working he's average at best.
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Yeah, his curve wasn't great last night. I'm not too worried about Charlie. I don't know if he'll be the 4.5 win pitcher he was in 2021 but I don't think he's a big risk to collapse either. If he stays healthy he'll be a solid innings eater.
 
striker42 said:
Yeah, his curve wasn't great last night. I'm not too worried about Charlie. I don't know if he'll be the 4.5 win pitcher he was in 2021 but I don't think he's a big risk to collapse either. If he stays healthy he'll be a solid innings eater.
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Yes. I think at this point in his career he should be our #4/5. Which he is once we get healthy. He will eat innings. Get shelled occasionally and shut some teams down on other.
 
Anybody heard an actual time line on Kyle Wright and Max for that matter?
I know they won’t rush Kyle, so I’m guessing it’s going to be awhile yet -
Good thing we have this lineup to score a lot of runs … feels like we are gonna need ‘em
 
Hulavol said:
Anybody heard an actual time line on Kyle Wright and Max for that matter?
I know they won’t rush Kyle, so I’m guessing it’s going to be awhile yet -
Good thing we have this lineup to score a lot of runs … feels like we are gonna need ‘em
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Fried was just put on 15 day IL retroactive to April 1. Elder recalled
 
Hulavol said:
Anybody heard an actual time line on Kyle Wright and Max for that matter?
I know they won’t rush Kyle, so I’m guessing it’s going to be awhile yet -
Good thing we have this lineup to score a lot of runs … feels like we are gonna need ‘em
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Snitker said Fried didn't "blow anything up" but that it was a hamstring strain which will keep him off the mound "for a while". I wouldn't expect him back before May.
 
Hulavol said:
Anybody heard an actual time line on Kyle Wright and Max for that matter?
I know they won’t rush Kyle, so I’m guessing it’s going to be awhile yet -
Good thing we have this lineup to score a lot of runs … feels like we are gonna need ‘em
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I think Kyle is going to come off the IL as soon as he’s eligible. He was already back from injury in the spring, but wanted to give him a few extra weeks to build up arm strength.
 
Snit was abusing the hell out of Iglesias when he came over.

It was almost a Fredi-Linebrink situation where he was warming up on days hr wasn't used.
 
DirkPiggler said:
I'd be curious to see these numbers exclusively for left-handed hitters. It seems like having the rover playing in shallow RF would be more of a detriment to lefties than having three IF on the left side for right-handers.

Teams are still going to shift as far as possible on ground balls. The off-side middle infielder will still likely play as close to the bag as allowed. For this reason the lack of difference on ground balls makes a lot of sense.

It also brings up the point that, if this is all the effect we're going to see from removing the shift, was it really worth teams' time to do it in the first place?
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To your last point. Teams learned a lot from the shift. As a result, they are now able to keep many elements of the shift while keeping within the new rules.

The MI up the middle is the best example. That works, and the new rules still allow it, just not quite as extreme.

It also makes sense that the biggest benefit to hitters is the lack of the shallow outfielder.
 
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