Tapate50
Well-known member
There are a lot of people on this board selling Johan short thus far. After a slow start, he's been fine and is a plus defensively around the diamond.
GDT -- Wed, 5/23 vs Phiiiies
- Thread starter salmagundy
- Start date
There are a lot of people on this board selling Johan short thus far. After a slow start, he's been fine and is a plus defensively around the diamond.
msstate7
Well-known member
Camargo is awesome at 3b. His def value went from negative to positive really quick moving to 3b. He is not anywhere close to Swanson at SS defensively though
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Of course. Why would he not? I route running an innate skill that cannot be taught?
Most scouts I saw said he could play CF. Differing opinions on how well. He can play a corner.
I have watched him and he looks really raw to me. His approach to setting up to throw comes to mind. He looks like a 20 y/o who has used his amazing leg talent and arm talent to get to MLB. I do not think it's crazy to expect him to get better with age and coaching.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I would agree.
And IF Swanson is not our long time SS then it's not Comargo. You make that decision in the offseason and you move Ozzie to SS and look to get a Dozier at 2B. Maybe you can offer Machado a SS spot but I don't think we can afford him nor is that a good idea long term. I do not think Ozzie will be a great defensive SS but he'll be fine and he'd be better than Comargo.
I don't know why pro Comargo posters seem to think if he doesn't start then he's bad. I'd love to have him as the backup 3B, SS, 2B and play a ton. He's very good. I want him to be a brave for a long time. I just don't see a starter.
Eh, using their WAR numbers is a little misleading IMO. it's still really early in both their careers.
camargo was a part time player, swanson has had to play every day. me thinks if camargo played every day his numbers would've leveled out (or will). swanson is a better defensive SS and i still believe possesses more potential with the bat.
it's definitely too early to give up on swanson.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
I disagree strongly with statement #2. Camargo doesn't appear to be capable of being an everyday SS due to his defense.
Production should definitely be valued over pedigree, but only after both players have had enough time to reach their normal level of production. One horrible season for a player who was rushed to the big leagues can skew the stats you posted.
For the record I don't ever see Swanson as much more than a .750 OPS guy in a good year. If he can stay between that point and around .700 on the low side and maintain his defensive production, that should be enough to keep him in the lineup.
I expect Camargo to level out to around a .750 as well, with maybe a little more in a good year. His defense at SS wouldn't be good enough to displace Swanson with those numbers IMO. If he can play to the high side of that I could see him being a viable option at 3B going forward though.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
it is part of WAR
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Neither Camargo nor Swanson has established themselves as players you want to have in the lineup every day.
msstate7
Well-known member
Yep. 0.8 fWAR and 1.2 bWAR this season in 33 games. Not bad, eh?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I would say if their career WAR numbers are a little misleading, then a WAR number for a subset of their career is even more misleading. The data are what they are. After a certain point you have to set aside pedigree.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Over 800 PA for Swanson and approaching 400 for Camargo. And I think a certain weight can be applied to AAA numbers from the last couple years.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
see post #290
I don't disagree with this but I don't think it's a simple thing to learn. Hopefully he can do it.
I think some scouts see his speed and equate that to being able to play CF. I see a guy with speed to be able to make some great plays but also look pretty raw out there as you said. Hopefully it's just an experience thing. I still thing he's going to be a Justin Upton clone out there.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I would agree.
If we have a 750 OPS plus defense SS hitting 8th we are going to be good. As long as we get a real 3B.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
Agree, but we haven't reached that point yet.
Using your reasoning you would've given up on Dale Murphy after 1978. I'm not at all saying Swanson will reach Murph's level of production - just pointing out one example out of many who weren't finished products after fewer than two big league seasons.
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
Camargo has a gun of an arm and usually very good hands but very bad range at short and it appeared this season that playing at short was hurting him on offense as well. He appears to be more comfortable not being at short.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
Camargo has 191 AAA plate appearances. Swanson has 45.
Both had a full season in AA fairly recently, and Swanson put up significantly better numbers at essentially the same age.
DirkPiggler
Well-known member
We can afford one weak spot in the lineup for good defense. We can't handle two non-hitters though.
msstate7
Well-known member
You don't have to go back that far... look at our previous SS.
Simmons ops (skipped AAA also BTW)...
2012 = .751 (kind of a hot start like Swanson)
2013 = .692
2014 = .617
2015 = .660
2016 = .690
2017 = .752
2018 = .857
Now I realize there is a significant difference in simmons' defense and Swanson's, but Swanson is still very good. I doubt seriously you see Swanson stay under .700 ops again for a season. .700 ops and his defense is a nice asset at ss. I expect Swanson to get better and better with the bat too. I expect Swanson to be our Brandon Crawford
and it's at this point, when they're both 24? you're overreacting.