Global Events & Politics Überthread

Jaw said:
Putin has proven to be adept at knowing how far he can push things without provoking meaningful retaliation.
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nsacpi said:
I dunno about that. Imo he's made some enormous strategic blunders that will keep Russia in some sort of purgatory for a long time.
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bumped from 9/11/2018

while some were praising Putin's tactical nous and "perfect rationality," others among us had a more clear-eyed view of his flaws and limitations as a geopolitical strategist

pshaw
 
I'm still confused how Russia has lost in any way right now.

Looks like they are going to get more land. More access to the black sea. Currency is now returning to pre-invasion levels. Closer ties with CCP/India/Middle East. Has Europe by the balls with energy and is now forcing them to buy energy with their currency. And if you want to believe the polling Putin has even greater support now than pre-invasion.

Can someone help me understand how Russia is worse off? Looks like at this early stage the gamble has paid off but its only the top of the first inning so things can change.

I do see that American citizens are suffering from record inflation though and our position as the worlds reserve currency is at risk.

The sheep NPC's (Both Neo Cons/Libs) will just move on to something else in a few short weeks like none of this ever happened. Then what happens to Ukraine?
 
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The Ukrainian military early Friday launched a cross-border raid into Russia, striking an oil depot, and signaling the country’s armed forces are trying to seize an advantage as Russian forces regroup.

Ukrainian attack helicopters skirted Russian air defenses to execute the assault on the facility in Belgorod. The region’s governor, Vyacheslav Gladkov, confirmed the strike, writing on social media that two Ukrainian helicopters carried out the operation.

Belgorod is located close to the Ukrainian border with Russia and north of Kharkiv, Ukraine's second-largest city.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-04-01

An escalation but one consistent with a country's inherent right to self defense.
 
Russia’s factories cut production and jobs in March after the U.S. and its allies adopted some of the most severe economic sanctions ever taken against a country following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, a new survey showed on Friday.

The survey of purchasing managers at Russian manufacturing companies conducted by data firm S&P Global also recorded sharp rises in prices and a big decline in new orders. Western sanctions have effectively severed Russia from international finance and barred it from importing key technologies.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/russia...ks-as-sanctions-over-ukraine-bite-11648803837

The leading edge of what is likely to be a severe contraction in Russia's economy.
 
nsacpi said:
bumped from 9/11/2018

while some were praising Putin's tactical nous and "perfect rationality," others among us had a more clear-eyed view of his flaws and limitations as a geopolitical strategist

pshaw
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I definitely underestimated Europe's response. The UK, Poland, France, and Scandinavian countries really impressed me. Joe has done a good job of following their lead, which is the best we could have hoped for with his foreign policy record. I still notice that Vlad the Bad is alive and well, is in no danger of foreign powers intervening militarily, and is still in control. As a matter of fact, anyone who could have presented a meaningful threat has seemed to roll over on their back to show their belly in submission. But hey, the Russian people will certainly suffer.
 
Just be mindful that the interpretation of where the war is right now is being told by sources that have repeatedly lied the past 6 years.

Take note
 
Jaw said:
I definitely underestimated Europe's response. The UK, Poland, France, and Scandinavian countries really impressed me. Joe has done a good job of following their lead, which is the best we could have hoped for with his foreign policy record. I still notice that Vlad the Bad is alive and well, is in no danger of foreign powers intervening militarily, and is still in control. As a matter of fact, anyone who could have presented a meaningful threat has seemed to roll over on their back to show their belly in submission. But hey, the Russian people will certainly suffer.
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credibly accused creepy joe has followed not just the lead of European leaders. He has also lagged at a safe distance behind American public opinion.

btw it would be remiss of me not to express admiration for your expert use of the Vlad the Bad moniker
 
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nsacpi said:
credibly accused creepy joe has followed not just the lead of European leaders. He has also lagged at a safe distance behind American public opinion.

btw it would be remiss of me not to express admiration for your expert use of the Vlad the Bad moniker
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I have no complaints with how Joe has handled Ukraine v Russia. Ukraine is a non-NATO, European country, so Europe should have taken the lead in any intervention. I've been pleasantly surprised that some of them have actually done it instead of turtling along with Germany. I expected guts from Poland and the Baltics but not from anyone to their west.
 
Jaw said:
I have no complaints with how Joe has handled Ukraine v Russia. Ukraine is a non-NATO, European country, so Europe should have taken the lead in any intervention. I've been pleasantly surprised that some of them have actually done it instead of turtling along with Germany. I expected guts from Poland and the Baltics but not from anyone to their west.
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Actually the new German Chancellor Scholz strikes me as an improvement on Merkel. But it is early days.
 
A more globally interconnected world has raised the standards of living for those in places like Russia and China by any measure. Where I think the west may have miscalculated is the degree to which we thought this improved living would be impossible for governments to take away.

Whether we believed there was no chance of the governments risking the improvements greater contacts with the west has brought or whether we believed the people wouldn't stand for such a step back, we were wrong. Russia is teaching us that. Putin is willing to sacrifice the welfare of his own people to achieve geopolitical gains and his people are letting him do it.

I still believe economic and cultural ties are the best way we have to bring these countries into our sphere but it's showing it's not foolproof.
 
striker42 said:
A more globally interconnected world has raised the standards of living for those in places like Russia and China by any measure. Where I think the west may have miscalculated is the degree to which we thought this improved living would be impossible for governments to take away.

Whether we believed there was no chance of the governments risking the improvements greater contacts with the west has brought or whether we believed the people wouldn't stand for such a step back, we were wrong. Russia is teaching us that. Putin is willing to sacrifice the welfare of his own people to achieve geopolitical gains and his people are letting him do it.

I still believe economic and cultural ties are the best way we have to bring these countries into our sphere but it's showing it's not foolproof.
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The Russians have always been deeply ambivalent about western European culture. This is one of the ways their history parts with Ukraine's, which is much more western in its orientation. But the economic piece of the equation is very different. That's going to bite in an unambiguous way. It bites ordinary Russians and it bites into the ability of the Russian state to finance all sorts of things, including Putin's war.
 
nsacpi said:
The Russians have always been deeply ambivalent about western European culture. This is one of the ways their history parts with Ukraine's, which is much more western in its orientation. But the economic piece of the equation is very different. That's going to bite in an unambiguous way. It bites ordinary Russians and it bites into the ability of the Russian state to finance all sorts of things, including Putin's war.
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The economic piece definitely will bite. But it's a bite that Putin seems willing to take which is something a lot of people didn't expect.

I do think that the younger generation in Russia might feel a little different about Western culture than others, especially those in urban areas. They grew up in a world where they could travel Europe freely, had access to all kinds of Western luxury goods, and had access to Western media. The one drawback of the sanctions if they last is that this generation, that might embrace closer ties with the west, will grow accustomed to life without Western culture.
 
striker42 said:
The economic piece definitely will bite. But it's a bite that Putin seems willing to take which is something a lot of people didn't expect.

I do think that the younger generation in Russia might feel a little different about Western culture than others, especially those in urban areas. They grew up in a world where they could travel Europe freely, had access to all kinds of Western luxury goods, and had access to Western media. The one drawback of the sanctions if they last is that this generation, that might embrace closer ties with the west, will grow accustomed to life without Western culture.
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Many of them are getting out of Dodge. For the most part Russia is a very poor backwards country. I've been to some of the less touristic areas.
 
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