Hector Olivera signs with the Dodgers

Lengthy update from Kiley McDaniel on where the Hector Olivera situation stands. There's a lot of good stuff in the article, but here's his prognostication on the contract:

"Multiple sources indicate that Olivera’s camp is asking for the Tomas/Castillo contract in AAV terms, meaning at least $10 million per year. I could see a team doing that if their top evaluators are all-in on the talent, but I couldn’t see that for more than 2-3 guaranteed years with options and incentives, with a chance that number gets reduced before the contract is signed. My prediction is a 3-year deal with an option for a $25-30 million guarantee, with the above mentioned caveats of incentives and a potentially adjusted post-physical deal. I could see a team going to four years to land the player if two clubs get very aggressive on Olivera, but it’s hard to see a team giving more than four guaranteed years, given the information they’ll have access to before a decision is made."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cuban-prospect-emerges-while-others-move-closer-to-deals/
 
dak said:
Lengthy update from Kiley McDaniel on where the Hector Olivera situation stands. There's a lot of good stuff in the article, but here's his prognostication on the contract:

"Multiple sources indicate that Olivera’s camp is asking for the Tomas/Castillo contract in AAV terms, meaning at least $10 million per year. I could see a team doing that if their top evaluators are all-in on the talent, but I couldn’t see that for more than 2-3 guaranteed years with options and incentives, with a chance that number gets reduced before the contract is signed. My prediction is a 3-year deal with an option for a $25-30 million guarantee, with the above mentioned caveats of incentives and a potentially adjusted post-physical deal. I could see a team going to four years to land the player if two clubs get very aggressive on Olivera, but it’s hard to see a team giving more than four guaranteed years, given the information they’ll have access to before a decision is made."

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/cuban-prospect-emerges-while-others-move-closer-to-deals/
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I also noted that he believes the Dodgers are more likely to sign one of Moncada or Olivera. If so, I hope they land Moncada if that means we're getting Olivera. However, it might just mean the Giants or another team land him.
 
While I'm still unwilling to say we're "out" on Moncada, my feeling now is that we're more likely to target Andy Ibanez or several of the other YOUNGER players that have been (or will soon be) cleared to sign.

I agree with those that say that Olivera's by far the player likely to make the quickest impact, but the more you think about it, the less sense he makes. He's likely to get something in the 3-4 year/$30-$40 million neighborhood. He plays positions we have both current (CJ/Callaspo/KJ/Peterson at 3B, Callaspo/KJ/Peterson/EY Jr. at 2B) and hopefully future (Ruiz/Peterson at 3B, Peraza/Peterson at 2B) answers for that should be ready by the time the new park opens.

Everybody still questions the similar Markakis signing, but at the time it actually made sense - the decision to blow it up and start from scratch hadn't yet been made (at least publicly). Had we kept and tried to extend J-Up, Markakis was by far the best available option to replace Heyward if we were going to try to contend. At that point the rotation was all but set (Teheran/Wood/Miller/Minor/Hale or veteran signing), and all the other pieces were still in place. IF we were going to make a run, that signing made A LOT of sense. Bounce backs (to some extent) from CJ, Simmons, and anything from B. J. with Markakis replacing Heyward's offense would've arguably made the team better than before when you replaced Harang with Miller.

Fast-forward to today. Another signing that would make an immediate impact (at a position we don't "need" a replacement before 2017) makes precious little sense - IF Hart & Company believe that Peraza is the answer at 2B or CF. If you expect Peraza to be sitting atop the order when the new park opens, signing Moncada or Ibanez is a much better approach. You'd have control over either (at much younger ages) for far longer.

Olivera would be 31 and under contract for 1-2 seasons when the new park opens. There have always been questions surrounding his true age, and his health has been an issue of late. Much like Markakis, the money he'd be making isn't the issue - both would be great pieces for a contender. Of course, we're not going to be one of those before 2017 at the earliest barring some significant strides from Ruiz and a couple Pitchers AND the addition of J-Up or Cespedes next winter. I do think someone will come calling for Markakis when a need arises for them between now and the end of his deal, but we'd also be looking for the same thing to happen with Olivera - AND hoping both would remain healthy and productive.

I have no doubt we're going to make a splash with a Cuban signing pretty soon depending on who becomes eligible to sign and when, but if we don't go get Moncada I'm becoming more convinced every day that the player(s) we sign will be 23 or younger.
 
clvclv, I agree that in a vacuum a younger Cuban player that plays a year or two in the minors at a clear position of need would make more sense for us than Olivera. Here's my two cents on that the Braves may be thinking:

- Moncada would be a great add, but it's just too costly. You're gonna need to pay him as much as $120m for 6 years of control. With so much of that up front, the net present value would be more like your typical 6 yr / $140m contract. Add in the interest you'd have to pay on the internal / external loan needed for the lump-sum penalty this Spring, and it's even more than that. And of course, you are banned from signing guys > $300K for the next two years.
- Andy Ibanez may project as a solid MLB regular (optimistically), but he has a below average arm and thus can only be expected to play 2B. With Simmons at SS and Peraza and Albies in the pipeline, I don't know that the Braves want another guy locked into 2B.
- The current second-tier guys that are 23 and under just may not be talented enough to lead you to invoke the two-year signing ban. By second-tier, I mean guys not named Moncada.
- The CBA expires in the Fall of 2016, so it may be better to invoke the two-year signing ban in the next signing period in the hope that the ban only effects you for one year.
- Because so few teams have $ left this late in the offseason, Olivera might represent a better value than if he were to have signed last Fall. He gives you the defensive versatility you need, since he can capably play 2B in his age 30 season and has a very good arm that will allow him to play at 3B or corner OF in subsequent seasons. Contractually, you can try to front-load the risk by having most of the guaranteed money in the first two years so that he would have surplus value (optimistically) or just less risk (pessimistically) in the back half of the deal.
 
clvclv said:
While I'm still unwilling to say we're "out" on Moncada, my feeling now is that we're more likely to target Andy Ibanez or several of the other YOUNGER players that have been (or will soon be) cleared to sign.

I agree with those that say that Olivera's by far the player likely to make the quickest impact, but the more you think about it, the less sense he makes. He's likely to get something in the 3-4 year/$30-$40 million neighborhood. He plays positions we have both current (CJ/Callaspo/KJ/Peterson at 3B, Callaspo/KJ/Peterson/EY Jr. at 2B) and hopefully future (Ruiz/Peterson at 3B, Peraza/Peterson at 2B) answers for that should be ready by the time the new park opens.

Everybody still questions the similar Markakis signing, but at the time it actually made sense - the decision to blow it up and start from scratch hadn't yet been made (at least publicly). Had we kept and tried to extend J-Up, Markakis was by far the best available option to replace Heyward if we were going to try to contend. At that point the rotation was all but set (Teheran/Wood/Miller/Minor/Hale or veteran signing), and all the other pieces were still in place. IF we were going to make a run, that signing made A LOT of sense. Bounce backs (to some extent) from CJ, Simmons, and anything from B. J. with Markakis replacing Heyward's offense would've arguably made the team better than before when you replaced Harang with Miller.

Fast-forward to today. Another signing that would make an immediate impact (at a position we don't "need" a replacement before 2017) makes precious little sense - IF Hart & Company believe that Peraza is the answer at 2B or CF. If you expect Peraza to be sitting atop the order when the new park opens, signing Moncada or Ibanez is a much better approach. You'd have control over either (at much younger ages) for far longer.

Olivera would be 31 and under contract for 1-2 seasons when the new park opens. There have always been questions surrounding his true age, and his health has been an issue of late. Much like Markakis, the money he'd be making isn't the issue - both would be great pieces for a contender. Of course, we're not going to be one of those before 2017 at the earliest barring some significant strides from Ruiz and a couple Pitchers AND the addition of J-Up or Cespedes next winter. I do think someone will come calling for Markakis when a need arises for them between now and the end of his deal, but we'd also be looking for the same thing to happen with Olivera - AND hoping both would remain healthy and productive.

I have no doubt we're going to make a splash with a Cuban signing pretty soon depending on who becomes eligible to sign and when, but if we don't go get Moncada I'm becoming more convinced every day that the player(s) we sign will be 23 or younger.
Click to expand...

Hiro Onoda called and said to let it go.
 
clvclv said:
While I'm still unwilling to say we're "out" on Moncada, my feeling now is that we're more likely to target Andy Ibanez or several of the other YOUNGER players that have been (or will soon be) cleared to sign.

I agree with those that say that Olivera's by far the player likely to make the quickest impact, but the more you think about it, the less sense he makes. He's likely to get something in the 3-4 year/$30-$40 million neighborhood. He plays positions we have both current (CJ/Callaspo/KJ/Peterson at 3B, Callaspo/KJ/Peterson/EY Jr. at 2B) and hopefully future (Ruiz/Peterson at 3B, Peraza/Peterson at 2B) answers for that should be ready by the time the new park opens.

Everybody still questions the similar Markakis signing, but at the time it actually made sense - the decision to blow it up and start from scratch hadn't yet been made (at least publicly). Had we kept and tried to extend J-Up, Markakis was by far the best available option to replace Heyward if we were going to try to contend. At that point the rotation was all but set (Teheran/Wood/Miller/Minor/Hale or veteran signing), and all the other pieces were still in place. IF we were going to make a run, that signing made A LOT of sense. Bounce backs (to some extent) from CJ, Simmons, and anything from B. J. with Markakis replacing Heyward's offense would've arguably made the team better than before when you replaced Harang with Miller.

Fast-forward to today. Another signing that would make an immediate impact (at a position we don't "need" a replacement before 2017) makes precious little sense - IF Hart & Company believe that Peraza is the answer at 2B or CF. If you expect Peraza to be sitting atop the order when the new park opens, signing Moncada or Ibanez is a much better approach. You'd have control over either (at much younger ages) for far longer.

Olivera would be 31 and under contract for 1-2 seasons when the new park opens. There have always been questions surrounding his true age, and his health has been an issue of late. Much like Markakis, the money he'd be making isn't the issue - both would be great pieces for a contender. Of course, we're not going to be one of those before 2017 at the earliest barring some significant strides from Ruiz and a couple Pitchers AND the addition of J-Up or Cespedes next winter. I do think someone will come calling for Markakis when a need arises for them between now and the end of his deal, but we'd also be looking for the same thing to happen with Olivera - AND hoping both would remain healthy and productive.

I have no doubt we're going to make a splash with a Cuban signing pretty soon depending on who becomes eligible to sign and when, but if we don't go get Moncada I'm becoming more convinced every day that the player(s) we sign will be 23 or younger.
Click to expand...

We are out on Moncada and have been for some time. The bonus pool money that we got in trades wasn't for going over for Moncada or someone like Ibanez. We are not doing that now and have already spent that money. Further, the current options at third are not answers there. While Peterson could become one or at least a partial answer down the road, that is hardly a given. And Ruiz isn't likely to be ready till sometime in 2017 at the earliest (and that is assuming he pans out, he has yet to play AA yet so we'll see). Don't even get me started on CJ, we should dump him the first chance we get. Olivera is someone that would give us a chance to compete soon and has the potential to be our clean-up hitter right away. He make us a lot more likely to become a playoff team again by 2016. He is also someone that could be traded or moved to the outfield down the road should we find another answer at third.

Bottom line: I am not willing to just throw away both this season and next. I have accepted that we're rebuilding for this year but I want to be a winner and playoff team again by 2016. If we add Olivera I like our chances of doing that a lot more than by not doing so.
 
Badler has some recent Cuban players news:

@BenBadler ·
It's not slowing down any time soon. Two more notable players leave Cuba. Reports at Baseball America: http://bit.ly/1AFhPb6

My comments: Osniel Madera, who is 29, 5-foot-10 and 183 lbs may be worth consideration by the Braves, esp. if they miss out on Olivera. Badler states: "Madera is a good athlete and a versatile player who played mostly right field this season, though he has also played second and third base. He’s a righthanded hitter who batted .319/.380/.469 in 187 plate appearances with five home runs, 13 walks (six intentional) and 15 strikeouts. Madera hasn’t played on the Cuban national team, though he did play on the Cuban team built primarily around the country’s top young players that hosted the United States college national team in July."

Also, I thought I'd post this Moncada video link too in case anyone wants to check it out:

@BenBadler
Want to see Yoan Moncada hit in games? Video of him facing three of the top pitching prospects from the 2014 draft: http://bit.ly/1754ywd
 
We need to sign Olivera. There's always a risk with Cuban players but if he's willing to sign a 3 year deal we have to do it. We have no OF prospects coming and the payoff could be great. If we hit on a guy like him it could drastically change our outlook this year.
 
Julio3000 said:
Yeah, it has to be universal, otherwise it favors the Martians.
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marvin_moving_finger_by_aso_designer-d3es72t.gif
 
BTW, while the Braves are clearly not going over the limits in an effort to sign Moncada or someone like Ibanez. I keep hearing and reading more speculation that they may go over the limits and be big July 2nd players.

Kile McDaniel addressed these rumors in his recent Prospects Chat at Fangraphs:

Comment From Vslyke
Are the Braves planning to be big July 2nd players? I’ve seen some speculation from you and others that they might go over the limits.
12:28

Kiley McDaniel: Yes, they might but by no means have they already committed to doing so yet. They’re in the mix on all these Cubans and in the higher levels July 2 guys as well, so the buzz of them being more aggressive is well founded.
 
I've gotten to the point I'll believe it when I see it. We have always been bargain shoppers in that market.
 
Tapate50 said:
I've gotten to the point I'll believe it when I see it. We have always been bargain shoppers in that market.
Click to expand...

Yeah, agreed. I'd like to see us be more aggressive, and I'm not ruling it out, but until there's evidence to the contrary I'm going to assume that the int'l $$$ we've accumulated are more likely to go towards lower-dollar volume/depth signings.

Still, we've got to get some position talent somewhere. This is certainly one avenue.
 
A major league executive told FOX Sports' Ken Rosenthal that he expects Cuban infielder Yoan Moncada to command a maximum signing bonus of $30 million.
There's been talk for months that Moncada is aiming for $40-50 million, but that could be wishful thinking. "€I'€™d say $30 million max and even that number is a big-time stretch," the executive told Rosenthal. "$20 million-ish is more realistic." The team that signs Moncada will then have to pay double the signing bonus in international budget penalties. The Red Sox, Dodgers, and Yankees are thought to be the favorites.
 
Update on Hector Olivera per MLBTR:

"The 29-year-old Olivera, who turns 30 in April, is said to be seeking a five- or six-year pact along the lines of the contracts signed by Yasmany Tomas (six years, $68.5MM with a year-four opt-out) and Rusney Castillo (seven years, $72.5MM), Sanchez writes. (Remember that Oliver’s age and professional experience make him exempt from international spending limitations.) A recent report by Kiley McDaniel of Fangraphs depicts that as highly unlikely; McDaniel noted that concerns over Olivera’s age and a blood clot disorder (thrombosis) may limit his contract to three years, or potentially four, if multiple clubs become aggressive. He did concede that something around $10MM annually could be possible.

Sanchez writes that the 6’2″ Olivera is in the best shape of his career and has “wowed” in open showcases and private workouts, leading many to believe he could hit 15 to 20 homers annually.

Were Olivera younger, I’d be more inclined to believe that he could command something in the vicinity of the Tomas and Castillo deals, but I personally can’t envision that for a player of his age. Tomas will be younger than Olivera is right now when his six-year contract expires, and Castillo’s deal runs through just his age-32 season. A six-year pact for Olivera would carry through his age-35 campaign, so despite having seemingly impressive power for a second baseman (he can also play third), those goals seem far-fetched.

Lin notes that the Padres also have some interest in Olivera and may turn their sights his way if they’re unable to land Moncada. Padres pro scouting director/senior adviser Logan White attended Olivera’s final showcase in the Dominican Republic last week, per Lin.

Though Olivera isn’t yet cleared to sign, Sanchez hears that he could sign within 24 hours of being declared a free agent. The Mariners, Braves and Dodgers are the most likely landing spots for Olivera, per Sanchez, who also lists the Yankees and Padres as interested clubs. Clearly, Seattle is an odd fit, given the presence of Robinson Cano and the recently extended Kyle Seager. Perhaps, however, the Mariners would have interest in using Olivera in a corner outfield spot or in some form of super utility capacity."
 
Honestly, I didn't even pay attention to the original FB content, just this:

Peter C. Bjarkman, writer for BaseballdeCuba, reports on a Facebook that the Dodgers 'will' sign Hector Olivera, and hopefully he isn't fooling us.
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And the tweet that is there. It is what it is.
 
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