I've been tooting the Cespedes horn for a couple months now (and several people wanted to ridicule the idea - just as I said that we'd be targeting Inciarte in any Miller deal that involved Arizona), and still don't see where there's ANY downside...
1.) Doesn't cost you a pick (quite possibly the most important point).
2.) Freeman protection.
3.) Likely willing to accept less (years AND dollars) than Justin.
4.) Has a lot in common with Olivera - would certainly help with his transition.
5.) Better defensively than J-Up.
This is one of those odd situations where you take the steps necessary to expand the budget/get creative with the accounting/even consider including an opt-out. The market has COMPLETELY crashed on J-Up, Cespedes, Fowler, and whichever one of Desmond or Alexei Ramirez doesn't sign with the Padres soon. There's only ONE player left that's going to get a $100 million contract, and that's Chris Davis - if he doesn't wise up soon, he may not even get one.
This has become the "perfect storm". You call his representatives and tell them you're offering 5 years and $90 million with an opt-out after 2017 and that the offer expires in one hour. If he opts-out two years from now, who cares??? He'll have to play INCREDIBLY WELL for the next two seasons to think there's any chance he'll do better than $18 million per as a 33 year old looking for a job with all the players that are going to potentially be part of the 2018 free-agent class. You have $29 million coming off the books following this season (Bourn and Swisher) - that means that you're technically ONLY looking for $7 million total to cover his salary through 2017. You don't NEED to give Markakis away to come up with $7 million - you don't even need to trade him. That's HALF the amount the budget was increased to go get Ervin Santana when Medlen and Beachy blew out.
This is EXACTLY the time you make a move like this. If you decide to trade Inciarte because you like Smith better, you can do that when Mallex proves he's ready - not before. JMO, but I'd MUCH RATHER spend a little money on Cespedes than trade Inciarte and or Teheran for players with as many questions as Soler and Baez have. Make Mallex your 4th OF until Markakis' deal is off the books and slide Inciarte over to RF at that point. Cespedes, Inciarte, Markakis, Smith, and Teheran is worlds better than Soler, Baez, and $18 million per no matter how you want to break it down.
