Tomahawk trade has an article up saying we should be looking to get max value for j-hey hence trade him now. I agree with that sentiment because I think Jason is as unsignable as kimbrel but for different reasons. Kimbrel's unsignability is maybe overstated because of any of the big four including simba, ff , Jason and Craig, I could see kimbrel being the one most likely to take a discount to stay here. However even if we wanted to extend him budget wise and he agreed its not efficient to spend our payroll $ on a closer. Heyward is probably not going to sign for anything less then 20 aav including arb years which is insane. Jason's great but we can not spend 20% of our payroll on 1 player I say trade him. My question(s) are 1. Should we trade him and 2. What could we receive back ? Can't seem to be able to find the URL I'm using the bleacher report app on the iphone5.
Heyward ... Should we trade him now?
- Thread starter jcc03004
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Should we trade him now? The answer is the same as with any other player. It depends. On what the return is.
It is worth keeping in mind that a particular player's value reflects his production minus what he is paid. Once you get past the pre-free agency years, players generally get paid the expected value of their production. So no expected surplus once you get past those years. Occasionally, you see a player signed to a well below or well above market deal. The ones on below market deals (like Chris Sale) have a lot of value. The ones performing below their contract (Uggla, Wells, etc) you have to pay the other team to take.
Going beyond the basics stated above are secondary considerations. Can you trade from an area of surplus to fill an area of weakness? Specifically, with respect to Heyward you have to consider what you have in-house to replace him. Is Joey Terdoslavich for example someone that we need to make room for in the lineup?
An interesting example to consider is Heyward for Price? Does adding Price to the rotation help us more than losing Heyward from the outfield hurt us? Would the Rays also view a Heyward for Price deal in similar terms?
Whether Price is more likely to sign a below market deal than Heyward is another consideration that has to be taken into account when thinking about that hypothetical. I don't know the answer. Wren presumably has a good sense of the answer to that one.
Btw I don't view a 20M AAV for Heyward's post-arb years as an overpay. I think that would be a good deal for the team. From a budgeting perspective we can do this. After the 2015 season Justin Upton, Medlen and Uggla all hit free agency. After 2016 Kimbrel will in all likelihood be gone. So we can pay Heyward 20M/year easily. I would actually pay him a bit more for his post-free agency years if that is what it takes. To me Heyward projects as a 4-5 WAR per year player through his early 30s. The going price for that kind of output is around 25M/year. He's not like Cano and Choo whose production will be in significant decline once they hit the second half of the deals they just signed.
It is worth keeping in mind that a particular player's value reflects his production minus what he is paid. Once you get past the pre-free agency years, players generally get paid the expected value of their production. So no expected surplus once you get past those years. Occasionally, you see a player signed to a well below or well above market deal. The ones on below market deals (like Chris Sale) have a lot of value. The ones performing below their contract (Uggla, Wells, etc) you have to pay the other team to take.
Going beyond the basics stated above are secondary considerations. Can you trade from an area of surplus to fill an area of weakness? Specifically, with respect to Heyward you have to consider what you have in-house to replace him. Is Joey Terdoslavich for example someone that we need to make room for in the lineup?
An interesting example to consider is Heyward for Price? Does adding Price to the rotation help us more than losing Heyward from the outfield hurt us? Would the Rays also view a Heyward for Price deal in similar terms?
Whether Price is more likely to sign a below market deal than Heyward is another consideration that has to be taken into account when thinking about that hypothetical. I don't know the answer. Wren presumably has a good sense of the answer to that one.
Btw I don't view a 20M AAV for Heyward's post-arb years as an overpay. I think that would be a good deal for the team. From a budgeting perspective we can do this. After the 2015 season Justin Upton, Medlen and Uggla all hit free agency. After 2016 Kimbrel will in all likelihood be gone. So we can pay Heyward 20M/year easily. I would actually pay him a bit more for his post-free agency years if that is what it takes. To me Heyward projects as a 4-5 WAR per year player through his early 30s. The going price for that kind of output is around 25M/year. He's not like Cano and Choo whose production will be in significant decline once they hit the second half of the deals they just signed.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
I would put Freddie, Jason and Andrelton ahead of the pitchers in prioritizing. But in principle I'm not opposed to a good below market deal with a pitcher. All depends on price. My preference for position players reflects two things. Risk and the farm system's relative strength in producing pitchers. Pitchers are more risky, and the fact we have a good pipeline of pitchers coming through the farm system (Sims, Cabrera, Hursh, Parsons, Graham) allows us to avoid those risks.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Most extensions pay more in the post-arb than pre-arb years.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
What tells you Upton and Freeman are more likely to sign team friendly deals than Heyward?
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Don't see why we should given the pitching we have coming through the pipeline. Keep em until they hit free agency, pocket the draft pick. That's what I'd do with all our starting pitchers.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
It's all in the details. What would the Mariners offer? What else would we need to add to get Sale? Any of those could be good deals. Or bad ones depending on the details.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
We have Minor under contractual control for 4 more years as things currently stand. But I would offer him that since it is less than he is likely to average through arbitration.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Goes for all of them. Unless they are willing to sign below market extensions.
Hudson2
Well-known member
Uptons brother is here so he would probably be more inclined to stay than not. Freedie I'd rather keep than Heyward. So it's a matter of preference I guess. It all comes down to letting one of the group go and keeping the other 2. So Heyward, Simmons, Upton, and Freeman are our core. I'd trade Heyward of that group and I'm a big Heyward fan.