Heyward ... Should we trade him now?

We have a very good team as is, but with some noticeable holes. Trading Heyward makes us significantly worse. I realize getting max value out of a player who will walk soon seems like a good idea, but the truth of it is, unless payroll increases, this is the best team we are probably going to have for awhile.

We need to keep the players we have and trade the farm for someone like Price or Sale . WS or bust.
 
Hudson2 said:
Signing Heyward would be a lot easier if Uptons contract wasn't on the books or the next 4 years. But he don't wanna talk extension with us or resign for some reason. I wanna win as bad as anybody but I also don't wanna hold onto a player to long and then get squat in the long run. We have a history of that as it is. If Wren can get an awesome return for him then he needs to be fired for not taking it.
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This.
 
Heyward is an interesting case. Typically by the time arby is up you have a pretty good feel for a player and you can tell where they fit in the market. But, Heyward will still be just 24 despite having 4 seasons in. But, what does he get paid on? He clearly has one of the best player int he game type talent, yet his production isn't equal to top of the game type talent due primarily to injuries, but also some inconsistencies.

How much do you pay a .259/.352/.443 hitter with gold glove defense (in RF)? I think based on talent alone, he gets a huge deal and it's a big risk for a mid tier payroll to shell out 15-20 million a year on potential.
 
gilesfan said:
Heyward is an interesting case. Typically by the time arby is up you have a pretty good feel for a player and you can tell where they fit in the market. But, Heyward will still be just 24 despite having 4 seasons in. But, what does he get paid on? He clearly has one of the best player int he game type talent, yet his production isn't equal to top of the game type talent due primarily to injuries, but also some inconsistencies.

How much do you pay a .259/.352/.443 hitter with gold glove defense (in RF)? I think based on talent alone, he gets a huge deal and it's a big risk for a mid tier payroll to shell out 15-20 million a year on potential.
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Ummmmm you haven't watched the last 2 seasons. Injuries are a concern but Heyward has been very consistent. And even with his 2 DL stints last year, he's the best RF in baseball the last 2 seasons. Hopefully he and his agent don't know that. Heyward had virtually an identical offensive value season last year as he did the year before. Except that he missed time. The only concern with Heyward is health. If he's healthy he's a 5 WAR or so player. The only thing that wasn't consistent about him last year was baserunning. Going from 20 stolen bases to 2 is baffling.I mean yeah he missed a ton of time but not that much, he didn't even have the 10 he had the first 2 seasons of his career. FIRE PENDLETON
 
◾6 years/$85.5M (2013-18)
◾signed extension with Baltimore 5/26/12 (largest deal in club history)
◾$2M signing bonus
◾13:$8.5M, 14:$13M, 15:$13M, 16:$16M, 17:$16M, 18:$17M
◾may earn additional $6M in performance bonuses
◾award bonuses, including $75,000 for All-Star selection
◾no-trade protection

The above is the deal Adam Jones signed with the Orioles at the start of his second arb season (2012). I think it is one of the better recent comparables to use for what Heyward and the Braves should try to shoot for. But it should be noted it is not a perfect comp. Heyward is younger and has been more productive than Jones was up to the time he signed his deal. And of course there has been some salary inflation since Jones signed.

A reasonable but somewhat team-friendly deal for Heyward would look something like this:

2014 6M
2015 11M (last arb year)
2016 and beyond an AAV of 20-23M. Probably moderately back-loaded if it is a long deal.

Note that the AAV for the post-arb years in Jones deal is $15M. Plus there are some performance and award bonuses. Note also that in his three arb years Jones made $3.25M, $6.15M and $8.5M. The size of the gap between the pre arb years and the post-arb years is a good illustration of why young cost-controlled players have so much surplus value.
 
zitothebrave said:
Ummmmm you haven't watched the last 2 seasons. Injuries are a concern but Heyward has been very consistent. And even with his 2 DL stints last year, he's the best RF in baseball the last 2 seasons. Hopefully he and his agent don't know that. Heyward had virtually an identical offensive value season last year as he did the year before. Except that he missed time. The only concern with Heyward is health. If he's healthy he's a 5 WAR or so player. The only thing that wasn't consistent about him last year was baserunning. Going from 20 stolen bases to 2 is baffling.I mean yeah he missed a ton of time but not that much, he didn't even have the 10 he had the first 2 seasons of his career. FIRE PENDLETON
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He's been the best RFer if you believe fangraphs numbers for WAR are a true reflection of the impact a RF has defensively on the game.

If you want to pay him as the top RF in the game based on his great defensive numbers, I'm not going to agree with you on that one. Catcher, SS, CF....I may.

The last 2 years Heyward hasn't been in the top 10 offensively for RFers in baseball.
 
gilesfan said:
He's been the best RFer if you believe fangraphs numbers for WAR are a true reflection of the impact a RF has defensively on the game.

If you want to pay him as the top RF in the game based on his great defensive numbers, I'm not going to agree with you on that one. Catcher, SS, CF....I may.

The last 2 years Heyward hasn't been in the top 10 offensively for RFers in baseball.
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Hunter Pence OPS the last two seasons: .742, .822

Shin-soo Choo OPS the last two seasons: .815, .885

Jason Heyward OPS the last two seasons: .814, .776

No quite as good as Choo offensively. About the same as Hunter Pence.

Steamer projections for 2014: Heyward .842, Choo .829, Pence .789.

The Giants overpaid with the Pence contract (AAV 18M). But at the same time we shouldn't underestimate Heyward's market value.
 
gilesfan said:
Heyward is an interesting case. Typically by the time arby is up you have a pretty good feel for a player and you can tell where they fit in the market. But, Heyward will still be just 24 despite having 4 seasons in. But, what does he get paid on? He clearly has one of the best player int he game type talent, yet his production isn't equal to top of the game type talent due primarily to injuries, but also some inconsistencies.

How much do you pay a .259/.352/.443 hitter with gold glove defense (in RF)? I think based on talent alone, he gets a huge deal and it's a big risk for a mid tier payroll to shell out 15-20 million a year on potential.
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Well said but its probably a risk we should take given there is nothing to replace him.

The potential is through the roof.
 
Any long-term contract is risky. We should try to minimize the number we take on. When we do take them on, we should keep some basic considerations in mind:

1) Pitchers more risky than hitters.

2) Old players more risky than young players.

3) Less athletic players age more quickly.

4) Players who reach the majors late age more quickly.

5) Don't hand out large multi-year deals at positions where the minor league pipeline is strong.

I would say most of the above considerations are favorable for Heyward, Simmons, Freeman getting long-term deals. That's why those three should be Wren's top priorities.
 
I don't think Wren is scared to pay him what they thinks he's worth. I just don't think he wants to resign.
 
gilesfan said:
He's been the best RFer if you believe fangraphs numbers for WAR are a true reflection of the impact a RF has defensively on the game.

If you want to pay him as the top RF in the game based on his great defensive numbers, I'm not going to agree with you on that one. Catcher, SS, CF....I may.

The last 2 years Heyward hasn't been in the top 10 offensively for RFers in baseball.
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So a guy saving 30 runs in RF is not as important as a guy saving 30 at another position? lol

Anyway Heyward's combined offensive and baserunning runs were 33.6 which puts him behind Choo, Stanton, Beltran, Harper Hamilton, Hunter, Justin, Pence and Rios. Only way he's not top 10 is if you count Zobrist. Heyward has several less PA than all of those guys except Harper I believe. Again only not top 10 in wRC+ if you count Zobrist. But considering how much better of a baserunner he is than Hunter, Ethier, Swisher and Hart you could easily argue him into the 6-7 range of offensive contribution in the last 2 years on a rate only basis. So he's top 10 offensively with much less PA, but he's not top 10 offensively? that's what happens when you dont' look at stats with a brain.

And considering Heyward crushes every person above him defensively, yes he's the best RF in baseball the last 2 years.
 
The fact is the Braves likely have 2 years left to make a run at a WS title, and then it will be a rough period in Braves baseball.

There is zero postional talent to replace guys like Heyward, Freeman and Justin. There is basically zero money to replace that premium talent. Available funds relative to the rest of the league is also going to get worse and worse as the Braves TV deal continues to hurt them in the pocket book.

The Braves are good right now because they produce cheap pitching (which they will likely continue to do), and have Heyward, Justin, Freeman and Simmons producing at a HUGE surplus value. Once those positional talents price themselves out of Atlanta, and make no mistake they most definitely will, there won't be enough talent on the roster to compete with a $100M payroll when other teams continue to boost their payrolls.

I hate to be a doom and gloomer, but those are the facts as I see it. It's WS or bust the next 2 years because after that the cupboard is going to be pretty bare.
 
The Braves will pay Jason and Freddie, Maybe Justin.

People freak out about BJ and Uggla but they'll be relative non-factors to keeping Jason and Freddie. We can keep 3 stars so 3 of Jason, Justin, Freddie, Minor, and Medlen. Maybe 4 if you consider Simmons a star.

Personally I'd offer Simmons a deal now for 8 years he'd probably lose value after about 8 years from now and he probably signs for cheap.
 
I agree, I'd offer Simmons a 8 year contract now and wouldn't hesitate. Then work to Heyward, Freddie, and Justin from there. But going into a new stadium losin ur fan favorites would be a horrible idea. Uggla will be gone in 2 years so the money will be there to extend them if they wanna be here.
 
They'll play here. My hunch is the Braves are still trying to lowball them more or less. Some players take those deals (mac, Wright, etc.) some wait and get paid (Howard) my hunch is we keep them all honestly. Justin would be the one I would think we lose.
 
zitothebrave said:
So a guy saving 30 runs in RF is not as important as a guy saving 30 at another position? lol

Anyway Heyward's combined offensive and baserunning runs were 33.6 which puts him behind Choo, Stanton, Beltran, Harper Hamilton, Hunter, Justin, Pence and Rios. Only way he's not top 10 is if you count Zobrist. Heyward has several less PA than all of those guys except Harper I believe. Again only not top 10 in wRC+ if you count Zobrist. But considering how much better of a baserunner he is than Hunter, Ethier, Swisher and Hart you could easily argue him into the 6-7 range of offensive contribution in the last 2 years on a rate only basis. So he's top 10 offensively with much less PA, but he's not top 10 offensively? that's what happens when you dont' look at stats with a brain.

And considering Heyward crushes every person above him defensively, yes he's the best RF in baseball the last 2 years.
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You suck at reading.
 
I wouldnt trade Heyward because I still think he will have an MVP caliber offensive year at some point and I want it to be with us. There are a few deals I would take if they were out there to make. I would trade Heyward for Taijun Walker or Chris Sale. There isnt much else I would deal him for except the great Mike Trout which isnt happening.
 
zitothebrave said:
The Braves will pay Jason and Freddie, Maybe Justin.

People freak out about BJ and Uggla but they'll be relative non-factors to keeping Jason and Freddie. We can keep 3 stars so 3 of Jason, Justin, Freddie, Minor, and Medlen. Maybe 4 if you consider Simmons a star.

Personally I'd offer Simmons a deal now for 8 years he'd probably lose value after about 8 years from now and he probably signs for cheap.
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I dont have any doubt Wren is offering Jason a big deal, i just dont think he wants to be with the Braves long-term. It takes two to tango.

I hope im wrong but i think thats what it comes down too, and why i'd trade him soon.
 
I think signing Simmons to a deal like 8 years would be beneficial. Even if he doesn't progress at all as a hitter, his defense and bat at SS together is still very valuable, but not elite level overall. You would hope the offense improves, and I think it will by a good bit. Hell, if he put up what he did in 49 games as a rookie and spread it out over a full season, he's elite overall when it comes to impact on games. I don't think it's unreasonable for him to hit at that, perhaps with a bit more power.
That's why I don't see the need for a big move. We have a lot of guys who could very reasonably improve upon their performances last season. The chance each individually improve is pretty good, but the chances of all of them improving is much slimmer. But Jason, JUp, BJ, Simmons, Freddie, Teheran, Minor, Wood is a lot of potential. I don't think there are that many teams with that kind of upside. I think the Nats are one, though. I feel our talent gets a little underrated by some around here.
 
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