50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
Maybe I overstated it with miserable, but I'd hardly call 8% decent.
Heyward to Cubs for less than $200M
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Maybe I overstated it with miserable, but I'd hardly call 8% decent.
Well, it's slightly better than average, so...
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Havent seenNyone say that. All reports I've read say he's athletic and arm can plat rf
[Q
UOTE=smootness;283514]He does not have plus defensive potential, not even close.
He's not a great runner (and that will get worse), he has an ok arm, and his defense will likely never even approach average.
His value is completely in his bat. And his potential there is good, but at some point he has to start putting it together. He had one good year in the minors and that's pretty much it.
It's interesting, though, that people seem to view him as having 'insane' potential just because of his bat even though his deficiencies in every other part of the game actually keep his ceiling low, while people down Heyward for not being great even though he's likely better now than Soler is ever capable of becoming.[/QUOTE]
[Q
UOTE=smootness;283514]He does not have plus defensive potential, not even close.
He's not a great runner (and that will get worse), he has an ok arm, and his defense will likely never even approach average.
His value is completely in his bat. And his potential there is good, but at some point he has to start putting it together. He had one good year in the minors and that's pretty much it.
It's interesting, though, that people seem to view him as having 'insane' potential just because of his bat even though his deficiencies in every other part of the game actually keep his ceiling low, while people down Heyward for not being great even though he's likely better now than Soler is ever capable of becoming.[/QUOTE]
Here is his Fangraphs scouting report from 2014:
Hit: 50/60, Game Power: 55/65, Raw Power: 65/65, Run: 50/45, Field: 45/45+, Throw: 55/55
And here's the part about his athleticism and defense:
"Soler is a good athlete for a a 6’3/225 power hitter, turning in average run times and sometimes a bit better, but I’d expect him to lose a step by his peak and he’s never been a huge hustle guy on the bases, so it doesn’t always show up in games. It’s a right field profile and he should have enough speed/defense to be around average in those areas and not be a value suck on a potential impact bat."
Now, that doesn't scream terrible, but he definitely doesn't profile as a potentially plus defender. And I think based on the evidence we now have, it's absolutely a question as to whether his speed and defense will be a value suck on his bat. Enough of a question that I wouldn't be thrilled with giving up much of a quality piece to get him.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Again, you're comparing apples to organges skillset wise
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
I may be, but I just don't get the infatuation with Cuban players. Granted, Soler is younger than most who have defected, but I just haven't been that impressed with the staying power of these Cuban players. Don't take that as racist, because it's not. I think they have been trained in a system that has somewhat put them on a pedestal and I think that causes problems when they get over here. I think guys like Escobar and Puig are supremely talented guys, but we've seen the downside of their games as well. Take a flyer on Soler the way we've taken a flyer on Olivera. It's fine with me. I cheered for the team when Pat Rockett was the starting SS.
But I don't get the charge that I'm comparing apples-to-oranges with Francoeur and Soler. I was always skeptical of Francoeur, but the guy was in the big leagues at a younger age than Soler. When he came up, he profiled as at least as good defensively as Soler and Francoeur did have pretty impressive power potential. His plate discipline was far worse (beyond debate) and I Francoeur had a huge deficit in baseball "sense", but I don't see these guys as being that much different.
Soler will be a decent defensive RF. He'll never be a game changer like Heyward is defensively. But there are few bats available on the trade market that are in the majors and have the potential to be a true impact middle of the order bat. I trade Inciarte for Soler in a heartbeat
There's just nothing that says he will be decent defensively. As a prospect, his ceiling was considered to be below-average, and he now has a year in the majors where he was truly horrific. Getting older won't necessarily improve his defense; it will eventually make it even worse.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Well his defensive ceiling on the scouting report you provided says average so there's that...
If we do acquire Soler I don't think it's going to because of his Defense. Would Soler be a gamble? Definitely. but this FO has shown they're willing to acquire gambles with high upside. You need "good" players to win, but you're hoping you trip on a stud or two as well. Soler has the "potential" to be a stud as does Javier Baez.
That's his absolute ceiling, or '45+,' as McDaniel specifically rated it. And that was before putting up an atrocious year defensively in the majors.
So yes, I think I'm correct in saying there's nothing that says he will be decent defensively. If you put up a year with a dWAR around -2 and it's previously been stated your ceiling is average at best, I'm going to go ahead and say there's a pretty good chance you're never 'decent'.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Yah 23 year olds never improve after their first year
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I was told that defense starts to slip after 24.. So he better figure it out next year.. cause it is all down hill from there..
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
or what is more likely to improve, Soler's D or Inciarte's O? Soler giving a damn in the field or Inciarte hitting for power or walking more? I can't pretend that I know the answers.
You'd think our team would know that....but they did go get olivera.
Haha exactly. I really don't know what I'm arguing now.
Multiple people have said Inciarte will likely start losing value because defense peaks early and he's unlikely to improve offensively. Now I'm being told Soler will gain a ton of value because he's only 23 so he'll get better in all phases.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
Inciarte value will decrease bc a large part of his value is contract and control. In arb years he will lose a lot of trade value
No, I was told it's because he's not going to get better defensively and will soon start getting worse. Now I'm being told Soler's defensive value will improve because, after all, he's only 23.
zbhargrove
Well-known member
Well I'm the one suggesting Soler can improve defensively and I never said anything about Inciarte's defense so you can please stop trying to put me in that camp. Inciarte is a great defender and pobably will be for a long time.
UNCBlue012
Well-known member
Yeah... I like Heyward but I haven't been that high on him in a while. I wasn't last year either. I guess I could care less.