Ian Anderson's stuff

Anderson’s straight over the top motion is going to make adding pitches difficult because he won’t be able to get much horizontal movement. That means no slider or cutter, and no sinker with any sort of real arm side run.

His current mix of rising FA, downer CU and downer CH are pretty much the optimal mix for him given that arm slot. I don’t think a split would help because that’s effectively a CH.

No idea if he can change the arm slot, but I guess it wouldn’t be worth it. His extension on the FA and deception on the CH makes them an effective combo, and that’s already a very good SP with a usable CU.

My recommendation would be to continue refining his command/execution of those pitches, and continue being a good SP. Like most pitchers, he will likely lose enough stuff in his 30s that he will no longer be effective, but just ride him for now and enjoy the results.

As striker said, do you think Ian could perhaps add a splitter or forkball?
 
Anderson’s straight over the top motion is going to make adding pitches difficult because he won’t be able to get much horizontal movement. That means no slider or cutter, and no sinker with any sort of real arm side run.

His current mix of rising FA, downer CU and downer CH are pretty much the optimal mix for him given that arm slot. I don’t think a split would help because that’s effectively a CH.

No idea if he can change the arm slot, but I guess it wouldn’t be worth it. His extension on the FA and deception on the CH makes them an effective combo, and that’s already a very good SP with a usable CU.

My recommendation would be to continue refining his command/execution of those pitches, and continue being a good SP. Like most pitchers, he will likely lose enough stuff in his 30s that he will no longer be effective, but just ride him for now and enjoy the results.

The curve really is the ideal pitch for him to pair with his fastball and change. If he had a good curve he'd have ace ceiling. It would work perfectly with his arm slot and his fastball/change combo. The problem is that it's a below average pitch. It's useful as a get it over breaking ball or just to showcase to a hitter to try to get them thinking about it but not much else.

If the curve had a better spin rate I'd have more hope for it. But I think it's destined to remain a below average pitch.

I totally agree that nothing relying on horizontal movement is an option for Anderson. That delivery is very effective for the fastball/change combo but severely limits horizontal movement. It's a shame because a slider would be another pitch that would work well with his fastball.

A splitter is really the only thing other than a curve I can think of that might work in his arsenal. You're right that his changeup negates a lot of the offspeed use of the splitter. But I don't think it would be useless. A downer splitter he can bury in the dirt to try to put a hitter away would help him out.

Ultimately you're probably right that we just need to accept that his fastball/change combo makes him an effective middle of the rotation pitcher we should ride as long as it makes sense. He's probably never going to add another effective pitch or turn that curveball into a weapon. He is what he is and that's useful.
 
The path of a splitter vs. Change is different.

They both sink but get to the end point differently.
 
And he did have major control issues. There were stretches where he looked like he'd never find the plate again. If he hadn't developed better control he's at best a #5 starter or long reliever type pitcher. His BB/9 in the minors was well over 4 which pretty much had to improve for him to make it.

Do you know how hard it is to be a successful starter in the majors with a BB/9 over 4? Over the last three years only 5 pitchers have managed to pitch enough innings to qualify while walking that many. 2 in 2019, 2 in 2020, and 1 this year. That's 5 out of 123 qualifying pitchers. None of them were able to do it twice.

My position was that he needed to get it under 4 if he wanted to have any chance of becoming a useful starter. He looks to have done that. A lot of young pitchers can't make that adjustment and bust as a result.

no he didn’t. he never had major control issues, and he didn’t dramatically improve his control. i cannot believe, but also CAN believe, you’re still stuck on this.
he had a BB/9 over 4 once over a meaningful span of innings, and that was his first full minors season at 19.
he’s always been right around the strike zone as an MLBer. he nibbles too much at times. but that’s exactly the way he was in the minors too - which is why “major control issues” was never said in a single scouting report from people who actually watched him pitch.
i’d love to see evidence that he dramatically improved his control tho.
 
Interesting thoughts Super - thanks for sharing that. I think he may have been throwing pitches where he wanted - ie nibbling as you said.
 
no he didn’t. he never had major control issues, and he didn’t dramatically improve his control. i cannot believe, but also CAN believe, you’re still stuck on this.
he had a BB/9 over 4 once over a meaningful span of innings, and that was his first full minors season at 19.
he’s always been right around the strike zone as an MLBer. he nibbles too much at times. but that’s exactly the way he was in the minors too - which is why “major control issues” was never said in a single scouting report from people who actually watched him pitch.
i’d love to see evidence that he dramatically improved his control tho.

I'm not going to argue with you. It's immaterial now. Anderson came up big for us in the world series so I'm glad we drafted him.
 
This is complete pseudo-science nonsense.

Look at a guy like Gausman.

The pitch data on spin/movement are different for the two pitches. An objects path once subject to strictly gravity is different based on its initial velocity.

Statcast has a discernable difference between the two.

They are most definitely two unique pitches and could be an option for Anderson down the road.
 
Last edited:
Look at a guy like Gausman.

The pitch data on spin/movement are different for the two pitches.

Statcast has a discernable difference between the two.

They are most definitely two unique pitches and could be an option for Anderson down the road.

https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=592332#pitchTypes

The Baseball Savant data on Gausman does show some differences.

Gausman's splitter spins at a rate of 1,648 RPM while his change spins at 1,887 RPM. Both are fairly close to the same speed.

As for movement, Gausman's split moves 13 inches towards a right handed batter and drops 37 inches. The change moves 12 inches towards a right handed batter and drops 28 inches.

So the splitter for Gausman spins a little slower and drops about 30% more than the change.

I can see a splitter having some utility for Anderson burying it in the dirt and getting guys to chase. But the fact that it would likely be similar velocity with similar direction of movement to his change limits the utility. A hammer curve would turn Anderson into an ace. A plus splitter wouldn't have near that impact. I do think there's some utility there.
 
https://baseballsavant.mlb.com/player-scroll?player_id=592332#pitchTypes

The Baseball Savant data on Gausman does show some differences.

Gausman's splitter spins at a rate of 1,648 RPM while his change spins at 1,887 RPM. Both are fairly close to the same speed.

As for movement, Gausman's split moves 13 inches towards a right handed batter and drops 37 inches. The change moves 12 inches towards a right handed batter and drops 28 inches.

So the splitter for Gausman spins a little slower and drops about 30% more than the change.

I can see a splitter having some utility for Anderson burying it in the dirt and getting guys to chase. But the fact that it would likely be similar velocity with similar direction of movement to his change limits the utility. A hammer curve would turn Anderson into an ace. A plus splitter wouldn't have near that impact. I do think there's some utility there.

Yeah - I'm not suggesting its a gamechanger. Only that it is a unique pitch that could keep hitters off the changeup better.

The curve is the preferred pitch but I just don't see how he is going to improve that. He just doesn't seem to have the ability to 'snap' a pitch with plus spin.

The splitter doesn't need to be 'snapped' like a curve so it may be a much more comfortable pitch (and effective) for Anderson.

Also - Gausmans splitter is thrown at the same velocity as his changeup and significantly slower than his FB. A guy like Tanaka through his splitter at a 5MPH delta from his 4 seamer. Gausman is at 11MPH delta.

If Anderson was able to develop an average splitter at around 85-88MPH I think it could be useful.
 
Last edited:
I'm not going to argue with you. It's immaterial now. Anderson came up big for us in the world series so I'm glad we drafted him.

You're not goin to argue about it because you were always way off base with that criticism.

It's great that you have changed your view towards Anderson to just that he's a mid-rotation piece that might not be effective past his 30s.

Less great that you want to pretend that's what you've always said and deserve kudos for it. A little weird honestly. It's not like I spend a lot of time arguing with people that do not like minor league players for whatever reason.

You were just so bizarrely fixated on making what was pretty clearly a good prospect (according to everyone) with good minor league performance into a AAAA scrub.
 
Last edited:
When Anderson was drafted, the comp the Braves put on him was Mike Mussina. In hindsight that was almost certainly draft day hype. Now that we've seen him and he's put up some major league numbers, who's the comp now?

I'd go with a right handed Gio Gonzalez.
 
When Anderson was drafted, the comp the Braves put on him was Mike Mussina. In hindsight that was almost certainly draft day hype.

Welcome to the draft. I reckon Ian Anderson is much closer to Mike Mussina than the average first rounder gets to their comp. Certainly a lot closer than Cody Johnson got to Ryan Howard or whoever folks were dreaming he'd be.
 
When Anderson was drafted, the comp the Braves put on him was Mike Mussina. In hindsight that was almost certainly draft day hype. Now that we've seen him and he's put up some major league numbers, who's the comp now?

I'd go with a right handed Gio Gonzalez.

AJ Burnett.
 
Welcome to the draft. I reckon Ian Anderson is much closer to Mike Mussina than the average first rounder gets to their comp. Certainly a lot closer than Cody Johnson got to Ryan Howard or whoever folks were dreaming he'd be.

I shuddered reading the name Cody Johnson. What an incredible miss he was.
 
Back
Top