If the Padres move Kimbrel

[blueagleace1]

I disagree completely. You have to take things as they are not as you would like them to be. The way they are is that the Braves have no offense in the minors to speak of besides three punch an judy guys who are blocked by three young punch and judy guys at the ML level. Then they have a very small handful of maybes who look like long shots or are so far away you can't even begin to hope to get anything worthwhile out of them for 4-5 years.

Everyone wants to sign FA bats in the offseason when there isn't any, at least none that the Braves have any hope of signing. I admit that they could always overpay for a marginal guy like a Cespedes but that way is utter folly unless you just get unbelievably lucky.

If not that, everyone wants to "trade for bats" like other teams are just going to line up and send their bats over for the Braves marginal or, at minimum, unproven pitching prospects (we'll keep the best and trade the rest) when the current environment in baseball is a general surplus of pitching (comparative to impact bats) and a specific motherload of pitching in the FA market.

You say that I want to trade away two young controllable arms for older expensive guys. Not so, I want to trade two pitchers who are possible at peak value right now for as many high end bats (and prospects in general) that I can get for them, keeping under consideration that by the time 2017 rolls around they will be approaching FA and will be getting very expensive through arbitration (if they continue as they are now) OR not worth what they are now because they have passed peak value or worse, injured or completely ineffective. The only way those two are irreplaceable is if you know the future and see them as HoF type guys. I don't. I would replace them by signing two veteran TOR starters (who would be admittedly very expensive, but at a better investment than throwing money at marginal bats then scratching your head at another terrible offense), who would come in and anchor the rotation and act as mentors to the pitching that the FO worked so hard to acquire in the first place.

You act as if in 2017 Miller and Wood would still be cheap. If they maintain any kind of similar pace they won't be cheap. They will be hard to keep in terms of money and years. If they are still cheap I will mean that they suck or are injured.

As for you quitting as a Braves fan, well that would be most unfortunate and I would hope that you would jump back on the bandwagon when we started winning pennants.

Again, we will have to agree to disagree. You called my approach short sighted but to me its you that are being short sighted.

You conveniently forget that the whole Kemp idea was based on the fact of getting Kimbrel back as part of the deal AND shipping them CJ. So Kemp would be a net $13.5M per year gamble. But, I can do without Kemp and/or Kimbrel. But, if you do that then you likely have to give up Maybin in trade to be able to move CJ or go ahead and accept that your eating CJ's salary, which the Braves FO doesn't want to do (nor should they if they have other options).

And you say that your plan doesn't include throwing money at marginal guys then start talking about bringing Uribe back who is at least 36, having a spike in performance that is probably unsustainable, and already making $6.5M and will command more if he keeps up the current pace.

Your plan focuses on short term results. Have a hole throw a band aide on it and hope it holds.

My plan is more long term focused which is look for long term talented fits. Tie your money up in top end pitching and a bat or two and fill in around them with the talented, youngest roster in baseball backed by a strong farm with prospects spread from AAA down through GCL and DSL. And let them grow and mature into a dynasty.

Your plan is safer but with little upside, essentially more of the same with a few prospects to exploit.

My plan is riskier but with much more long term upside and an ability to have flexibility to sustain growth as you move forward.

Not my argument but I do have a couple comments...

1. Can you please explain how this is another terrible offense?

2. In your plan, we would be relying HEAVILY (if not solely) on prospects. Yes prospects who are unproven at the MLB level and have a greater chance of fizzling out in the minors than someone like Uribe not aging well.

 

[yeezus]

Mayberry is someone I'd take a look at during the off-season. Has never quite put it together, but I think he could be a solid part of a platoon.

God, no. As someone who watches the Phillies frequently and saw him play a ton, just no. He is not a good hitter or defender anywhere. I wouldn't even want him as a bench player as he has NO defensive value anywhere, and he can't hit, either. He's just bad.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Not my argument but I do have a couple comments...

1. Can you please explain how this is another terrible offense?

2. In your plan, we would be relying HEAVILY (if not solely) on prospects. Yes prospects who are unproven at the MLB level and have a greater chance of fizzling out in the minors than someone like Uribe not aging well.

1. Terrible offense is not necessarily in reference to this year's offense. This year's offense as been passable so far mainly because of unexpected and unusual production from a handful of scrap heap or near scrap heap players: K. Johnson, Maybin, Uribe, AJ. All of those guys are currently performing at rates that would be close to their career best rates or are better than anything they have ever done (Maybin). So, in a sense the offense this year has been lucky that it struck gold so many times which is unusual. The core of the offense has performed either typical (Freeman, Simmons) or below average (Markakis).

2. Of course I would be relying heavily on prospects (who would theoretically eventually become veterans). That's why you need as many as possible because some will succeed and some will fail. The Braves have been a middle of the road team with occasional playoff appearances (with little real chance to be successful in the playoffs) over the last 10 years, just good enough to provide the illusion of possible triumph and just bad enough to not have a legit shot. The FO during that time has slapped a band aide over holes every year in effort to keep from having to actual rebuild, which has led to more of the same year after year. Some of that approach was due to the team being married to HOF veterans who were expensive but fading from their previous glory. The team didn't want to reset with Chipper and Smoltz trotting out there. Some of it has to do with ownership and its relationship with MLB and the commissioners office. And some of it stems from that perpetual optimism that if we could just get one more player "and catch lightning in a bottle..." because after all if you get in the playoffs it becomes a crap shoot.

But it's not a crap shoot. The best built teams usually win in a 162 game season and that goes for the playoffs with the exception that being one of the top teams and getting into the playoffs, getting hot at the right time can be a short term adder (KC Royals) but usually isn't enough to carry you all the way through.

What I am advocating is a continued reset of the foundation of the team and the farm where the band aide signings in the off season are to fill holes on the bench and long relief not 2 or 3 everyday positions.

 

[smootness]

What I am advocating is a continued reset of the foundation of the team and the farm where the band aide signings in the off season are to fill holes on the bench and long relief not 2 or 3 everyday positions.

The problem is, you're advocating for a team without a major-market payroll spending huge on multiple contracts, one of which we already know is a big overpay. Another is for a closer. If one of those SPs is hurt or anything less than an unquestioned ace, you're in serious trouble.

So best case, you have a decent team. Worst case, you're screwed for 4-5 years. The FO has shown they're not going in that direction.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

The problem is, you're advocating for a team without a major-market payroll spending huge on multiple contracts, one of which we already know is a big overpay. Another is for a closer. If one of those SPs is hurt or anything less than an unquestioned ace, you're in serious trouble.

So best case, you have a decent team. Worst case, you're screwed for 4-5 years. The FO has shown they're not going in that direction.

You are not in trouble if you are holding on to and developing the pitching talent we just traded for. And, ok, forget Kemp and Kimbrel. I said all along that I could live with them or without them but that if you wanted Kimbrel back then one way to do it would be Kimbrel and Kemp for CJ. So, let's assume no Kemp, no Kimbrel (which I would trade again if I HAD gotten him back).

Then you trade Maybin, right now, in a package to unload CJ and you get back what you can. Then go from there. You STILL add to front line starters since that is the best FA investment for your offseason money.

Look, what I am suggesting isn't all that far off what the Cubs did. The only difference is the Cubs started off much worse so they got to rely on top of the draft picks for multiple years.

They traded away Smardzjia and Hammel, git back one of the top five prospects in the game, their #5 prospect, an OF, and two other pieces. Then they went and signed Lester and brought Hammel back as a FA.

In 2013 they traded Scott Feldman to the Orioles for Arrieta and Strop.

Is anyone not buying the future of the Cubs?

 

[smootness]

And the Cubs have infinitely more financial flexibility than we do. This FO is not going to go buy two high-end FA SPs, I can assure you of that.

And my main beef initially was bringing back Kemp. Take that off the table, and everything else is way more palatable.

 

[clvclv]

You are not in trouble if you are holding on to and developing the pitching talent we just traded for. And, ok, forget Kemp and Kimbrel. I said all along that I could live with them or without them but that if you wanted Kimbrel back then one way to do it would be Kimbrel and Kemp for CJ. So, let's assume no Kemp, no Kimbrel (which I would trade again if I HAD gotten him back).

Then you trade Maybin, right now, in a package to unload CJ and you get back what you can. Then go from there. You STILL add to front line starters since that is the best FA investment for your offseason money.

Look, what I am suggesting isn't all that far off what the Cubs did. The only difference is the Cubs started off much worse so they got to rely on top of the draft picks for multiple years.

They traded away Smardzjia and Hammel, git back one of the top five prospects in the game, their #5 prospect, an OF, and two other pieces. Then they went and signed Lester and brought Hammel back as a FA.

In 2013 they traded Scott Feldman to the Orioles for Arrieta and Strop.

Is anyone not buying the future of the Cubs?

I might've done this a while back, but the thought becomes more ludicrous by the day IMO. IF you could get someone that's a slam dunk to become one of the Top 5 prospects in our system the day you make the deal AND will eat every dime of Johnson's contract, maybe I'd pull the trigger. I can see someone parting with that type of prospect to get Cam, but probably not if they have to take CJ back too - for as good as he's been, Maybin's still not going to fetch you the same thing Kimbrel did. However, he might get you that level of prospect alone right now.

We're no longer in a position to "have to" move CJ - Hart and Coppy have between $50 and $60 million to go shopping with even with his contract on the books.

 

[Enscheff]

Keep Maybin into the offseason and get a longer look at Mallex in AAA. If we think he's ready, call him up to play CF and move Maybin to RF with Markakis in LF. Trade Peraza with a pitching prospect for either a good piece at 3B, C, or in the OF (which would allow you to trade Maybin for one of the other positions). Bring Uribe back. Look at a decent FA piece at 3B or C (not anyone great). Sign a good FA SP (ace if the deal makes sense or someone a little below that), allowing you flexibility to move another pitcher if need be. Keep most of your pitching depth.

I think this is the best course of action. Guys like Braun, Lucroy, Tulo, and Baez are potential trade targets. Adding a Price or Grienke would be OK as long as they don't overpay and use someone like Wood or Teheran in a trade.

Absolute worst case scenario could be an OF of Maybin/Smith/Markakis with KJ and Gomes on the bench, and an IF of Freeman, Uribe, Simmons, Jace/Peraza with CJ on the bench, and some mashup of AJ, CB, or another FA vet handling C. If the young pitchers progress and a few additions are made to the BP, that is a team that could win 85 games and challenge for the 2nd WC spot in 2016.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

God, no. As someone who watches the Phillies frequently and saw him play a ton, just no. He is not a good hitter or defender anywhere. I wouldn't even want him as a bench player as he has NO defensive value anywhere, and he can't hit, either. He's just bad.

Agree. Just pitiful. His fifteen minutes has lasted seven years.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

And the Cubs have infinitely more financial flexibility than we do. This FO is not going to go buy two high-end FA SPs, I can assure you of that.

And my main beef initially was bringing back Kemp. Take that off the table, and everything else is way more palatable.

Why in the hell would we buy pitching?

We're going to buy some hitting.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I think this is the best course of action. Guys like Braun, Lucroy, Tulo, and Baez are potential trade targets. Adding a Price or Grienke would be OK as long as they don't overpay and use someone like Wood or Teheran in a trade.

Absolute worst case scenario could be an OF of Maybin/Smith/Markakis with KJ and Gomes on the bench, and an IF of Freeman, Uribe, Simmons, Jace/Peraza with CJ on the bench, and some mashup of AJ, CB, or another FA vet handling C. If the young pitchers progress and a few additions are made to the BP, that is a team that could win 85 games and challenge for the 2nd WC spot in 2016.

No to Baez.

 

[GovClintonTyree]

I might've done this a while back, but the thought becomes more ludicrous by the day IMO. IF you could get someone that's a slam dunk to become one of the Top 5 prospects in our system the day you make the deal AND will eat every dime of Johnson's contract, maybe I'd pull the trigger. I can see someone parting with that type of prospect to get Cam, but probably not if they have to take CJ back too - for as good as he's been, Maybin's still not going to fetch you the same thing Kimbrel did. However, he might get you that level of prospect alone right now.

We're no longer in a position to "have to" move CJ - Hart and Coppy have between $50 and $60 million to go shopping with even with his contract on the books.

Yeah, he's more of an "it would be nice to" than the albatross Mel and Owl were.

 

[clvclv]

I think this is the best course of action. Guys like Braun, Lucroy, Tulo, and Baez are potential trade targets. Adding a Price or Grienke would be OK as long as they don't overpay and use someone like Wood or Teheran in a trade.

Absolute worst case scenario could be an OF of Maybin/Smith/Markakis with KJ and Gomes on the bench, and an IF of Freeman, Uribe, Simmons, Jace/Peraza with CJ on the bench, and some mashup of AJ, CB, or another FA vet handling C. If the young pitchers progress and a few additions are made to the BP, that is a team that could win 85 games and challenge for the 2nd WC spot in 2016.

Not even sure I see Gomes option getting picked up at this point. The "kids" won't be as wet behind the ears after this season, and Eury Perez has been pretty darn good (not to mention would give you another option in CF).

 

[dak]

Not even sure I see Gomes option getting picked up at this point. The "kids" won't be as wet behind the ears after this season, and Eury Perez has been pretty darn good (not to mention would give you another option in CF).

It'll be an interesting parlor game down the stretch on whether Gomes' option will vest. It vests at 325 PA and he's on pace for 301 coming into tonights game. Seems like an amazing guy and all, but I'm not sure it's in the Braves best interest for that option to vest.

 

[jcc03004]

how about Kimbrel and venable for cj and folty

You are not in trouble if you are holding on to and developing the pitching talent we just traded for. And, ok, forget Kemp and Kimbrel. I said all along that I could live with them or without them but that if you wanted Kimbrel back then one way to do it would be Kimbrel and Kemp for CJ. So, let's assume no Kemp, no Kimbrel (which I would trade again if I HAD gotten him back).

Then you trade Maybin, right now, in a package to unload CJ and you get back what you can. Then go from there. You STILL add to front line starters since that is the best FA investment for your offseason money.

Look, what I am suggesting isn't all that far off what the Cubs did. The only difference is the Cubs started off much worse so they got to rely on top of the draft picks for multiple years.

They traded away Smardzjia and Hammel, git back one of the top five prospects in the game, their #5 prospect, an OF, and two other pieces. Then they went and signed Lester and brought Hammel back as a FA.

In 2013 they traded Scott Feldman to the Orioles for Arrieta and Strop.

Is anyone not buying the future of the Cubs?

 

[jcc03004]

No to trading Julio he has an extremely team friendly contract

 

[clvclv]

As many here, I loved Kimbrel and enjoy watching him pitch. But I'd much rather watch him pitch for someone else given his contract. "Elite" RPs simply don't make enough of a difference to justify their salaries unless they're pitching for big market clubs IMO. The Yankees paid big dollars to keep players like Rivera, Jeter, Posada and others when they were playing well-below what their contracts reflected what they should be paid late in their careers because they'd "earned" it. That's a luxury 25+ teams don't have.

I've asked several times, and have never had any of our "numbers friends" explain a scenario where you HAVE TO HAVE a Top 5 Closer to win it all. When you go back from year-to-year, you find very few World Championship teams that had elite Closers in their prime. We've seen (and got) Kimbrel's best years, and rewarded him with a contract befitting that status - like it or not, he's got nowhere to go but down and paying that percentage of your payroll to have him is close to having guys like Uggla and Melvin/B. J. to me personally. The Braves won their Championship with Wohlers at the back end for crying out loud. They got the best years of his career (and a Title) for A LOT less than $12 million per PLUS prospects.

There are a select few organizations that can pay players based on past production, and the Atlanta Braves aren't one of those.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

Why in the hell would we buy pitching?

We're going to buy some hitting.

Who?

Free Agents?

Trade? If so, who are you giving up?

 

[Horsehide Harry]

And the Cubs have infinitely more financial flexibility than we do. This FO is not going to go buy two high-end FA SPs, I can assure you of that.

And my main beef initially was bringing back Kemp. Take that off the table, and everything else is way more palatable.

This hasn't been true so far. The Cubs payroll was about $97M last year and in the $120M range this year (due in large part to the fact that they are paying Lesters' $30M bonus in two years, $15M this year.

In comparison, the Braves payroll last year was about $112M and this year about $97M.

AND, you have to take into consideration the new park and expanded (at least somewhat whatever it is) payroll.

Look, the thing is Atlanta is a LARGE market. Not only do they dominate the largest city in the South, they are the dominant MLB team for the Southeast. The Cubs share the Chicago market with the WSox. The big deal for the Braves has been horrendous TV rights which have now been renegotiated.

Sure, Liberty MAY choose to continue to hold the purse strings, and probably would if they stayed in Turner Field. But, I don't think that's going to happen.

Will they be the Yankees? Red Sox? Dodgers? No.

But, they will have a top ten payroll IMO.

 

[Horsehide Harry]

As many here, I loved Kimbrel and enjoy watching him pitch. But I'd much rather watch him pitch for someone else given his contract. "Elite" RPs simply don't make enough of a difference to justify their salaries unless they're pitching for big market clubs IMO. The Yankees paid big dollars to keep players like Rivera, Jeter, Posada and others when they were playing well-below what their contracts reflected what they should be paid late in their careers because they'd "earned" it. That's a luxury 25+ teams don't have.

I've asked several times, and have never had any of our "numbers friends" explain a scenario where you HAVE TO HAVE a Top 5 Closer to win it all. When you go back from year-to-year, you find very few World Championship teams that had elite Closers in their prime. We've seen (and got) Kimbrel's best years, and rewarded him with a contract befitting that status - like it or not, he's got nowhere to go but down and paying that percentage of your payroll to have him is close to having guys like Uggla and Melvin/B. J. to me personally. The Braves won their Championship with Wohlers at the back end for crying out loud. They got the best years of his career (and a Title) for A LOT less than $12 million per PLUS prospects.

There are a select few organizations that can pay players based on past production, and the Atlanta Braves aren't one of those.

I agree. An expensive closer is a luxury. Especially in this day and age of so many big arms. Guys are throwing 95+ all over the place. Getting one who can come in and throw gas for an inning just isn't really that hard anymore.