If you were Frank Wren...

I doubt Minor will be moved now that he's pitching well again. Teheran, Wood, and Minor are a pretty good trio. I'd try to bring Harang back as a 5th starter. But no way we can put any faith in Medlen or Beachy at all so another good starter will have to be found. Maybe Gattis can bring that back. Or maybe revisit the BJ for Jackson deal and hope he pitches better on a winning team. In that case use Gattis for a legit CF or 3b. Also work to extend Justin Upton and Heyward.
 
Biggest priorities:

1. We need to try to re-sign JUp and Heyward. If it becomes obvious that one of them cannot be re-signed explore the trade market for a young outfielder or a third baseman.
2. Trade BJ if you can get anything for him. Personally I'd rather send cash than package him with a player. If we can get any of the money owed back, call it a win. We'll probably have to pay most of his salary.
3. See how much cash is left. See if Santana can be re-signed. Explore possible acquisitions. Outfield and third base would be likely candidates. Gattis or Bethancourt could be trade bait. Whether we go for a star or younger players would be determined by what happened up to this point. In another thread Mookie Betts was mentioned. If we could get someone like that who could be a high on base guy at the top of the order I'd definitely be interested. We need more consistency.
 
1. We can't afford to resign both Heyward and J-UP find out which one can be signed and trade the other one. Personally I think Heyward would bring more back in a trade. Try to get a CF,RF and/or a 3b

2. Package Minor and BJ to get BJ's salary off the books. I am a Minor fan but he is going to command too much money even with his struggles this year.

3. Sign Alex Wood to a Teheran type deal.

4. Bring back Santana.

5. If you get a adequate 3b back in the deal trade CJ

6. Trade Gattis
 
First you have to look at who is leaving from this year for sure.

Our FA are Ervin, FLoyd, Doumit, Laird, Harang, and Bonifacio. So basically we have about 20% of our Roster is gone.

Which leaves our 25 Man players who are still under contract for next year or are arb/prearb eligible are

C - Gattis
1B - Freeman
2B - LaStella, Gosselin, Uggla sunk cost
3B - Johnson
SS - Simmons, Pena
LF - Justin
CF - Bossman
RF - Jason

SP - Julio, Minor, Wood
CL - Kimbrel
SU - Walden
MR - Avilan, Carpenter, Hale, Gearrin, Varvaro, Buchter, etc.

I think we're fine in the pen. Looking at our issues it really depends on how we want to go about next year. I see a few scenarios but this is what I'd do.

Trade CJ for Best available prospect. Sign Chase Headley. Make QO to Santana, assume he rejects it. Offer Medlen and Beachy to come back for less than this year. If they decline so be it. If they accept we won't count on them but consider them. I'd bring Floyd back to the same offer he had this year. He was great for us before going down.

So Assume Beachy and Medlen resign we keep Floyd.

This is what I'd do for next year.

VS RHP

CF - Jason
2B - TLS
RF - Justin
1B - Freeman
LF - Gattis
3B - Headley
SS - Simmons
C - Bethancourt

VS LHP

RF - Jason
2B - tLS (some spells for Gosselin but not a platoon)
LF - Justin
1B - Freeman
C - Gattis (some rest for Bethancourt than move him to the bottom)
3B - Headley
SS - Simmons
CF - Bossman

Bench
Bethancourt
Cunningham
Terds
Gosselin
Pena

Rotation

Julio
Minor
Floyd
Wood
Medlen/Beachy/Hale/Martin/Hursh/Northcraft/Graham etc.

Pen - Largely the same as this year, maybe with a sprinkling of Beachy/Medlen if they're healthy and not in the rotation.
 
Extending Jason and Justin would be my top priorities. I suspect we will have to clear some salary to do this. Therefore, I would be willing to package a good young prospect with BJ to move most of his contract. I would do BJ and Bethancourt for Jackson.
 
nsacpi said:
Extending Jason and Justin would be my top priorities. I suspect we will have to clear some salary to do this. Therefore, I would be willing to package a good young prospect with BJ to move most of his contract. I would do BJ and Bethancourt for Jackson.
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I would agree on that. I just assumed that is what will happen. As far as contract goes with them we can just start backloading them.

After next year Uggla's money will be off the board, I think we'll get rid of Walden to clear some space. ANd I think we'll shed Johnson and maybe Minor.
 
zitothebrave said:
First you have to look at who is leaving from this year for sure.

Our FA are Ervin, FLoyd, Doumit, Laird, Harang, and Bonifacio. So basically we have about 20% of our Roster is gone.

Which leaves our 25 Man players who are still under contract for next year or are arb/prearb eligible are

C - Gattis

1B - Freeman

2B - LaStella, Gosselin, Uggla sunk cost

3B - Johnson

SS - Simmons, Pena

LF - Justin

CF - Bossman

RF - Jason

SP - Julio, Minor, Wood

CL - Kimbrel

SU - Walden

MR - Avilan, Carpenter, Hale, Gearrin, Varvaro, Buchter, etc.

I think we're fine in the pen. Looking at our issues it really depends on how we want to go about next year. I see a few scenarios but this is what I'd do.

Trade CJ for Best available prospect. Sign Chase Headley. Make QO to Santana, assume he rejects it. Offer Medlen and Beachy to come back for less than this year. If they decline so be it. If they accept we won't count on them but consider them. I'd bring Floyd back to the same offer he had this year. He was great for us before going down.

So Assume Beachy and Medlen resign we keep Floyd.

This is what I'd do for next year.

VS RHP

CF - Jason

2B - TLS

RF - Justin

1B - Freeman

LF - Gattis

3B - Headley

SS - Simmons

C - Bethancourt

VS LHP

RF - Jason

2B - tLS (some spells for Gosselin but not a platoon)

LF - Justin

1B - Freeman

C - Gattis (some rest for Bethancourt than move him to the bottom)

3B - Headley

SS - Simmons

CF - Bossman

Bench

Bethancourt

Cunningham

Terds

Gosselin

Pena

Rotation

Julio

Minor

Floyd

Wood

Medlen/Beachy/Hale/Martin/Hursh/Northcraft/Graham etc.

Pen - Largely the same as this year, maybe with a sprinkling of Beachy/Medlen if they're healthy and not in the rotation.
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Another year of crappy offense, I see
 
gilesfan said:
Another year of crappy offense, I see
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Replace CJ with Headley seems like a straightforward improvement. Last 3 years Headley has a 121 wRC+, Johnson has 106. Last 2 years Headley has a 105 wRC+ Johnson has a 105 wRC+, this year headley has 95 and Johnson 84 It's also worth noting that Headley has improved a goot deal since joining the Yankees.

Short of signing or trading for a stud, there is no silver bullet. Sure up a weakness (even if Headley doesn't hit much better than Johnson, he will field way better)

Short of getting rid of BJ and adding a thumper for LF or RF, there's no clean way to improve the team. Looking at list of FA, who's a thumper who's available? Nelson Cruz, Michael Morse, Josh WIllingham? Cruz and Morse are hitting very well this year, but are ass on defense. I would like doing that but I cannot see the financials working out.
 
zitothebrave said:
I would agree on that. I just assumed that is what will happen. As far as contract goes with them we can just start backloading them.

After next year Uggla's money will be off the board, I think we'll get rid of Walden to clear some space. ANd I think we'll shed Johnson and maybe Minor.
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I definately am not for trading/letting Walden go.
 
Tough off-season ahead in a lot of ways, but Wren made most of the mess and it will be interesting to see if he just goes forward with what he has or makes some brash moves. I'm almost in the "ride it out" camp.

I doubt Santana will be back and I don't know if Wren risks the qualifying offer on him. That means we need another starting pitcher. I will be surprised if either Beachy or Medlen throw a pitch in a regular season major league baseball game again and there's no one truly ready in AAA/AA to challenge for a job in the rotation.

I would jettison Chris Johnson, but what's the market going to be for him?

It would be nice to get J. Upton and/or Heyward to sign extensions, but that would likely mean an overpay on a tight budget. Not to say it isn't possible, but my guess is those guys will want to test the market.

Disagree on letting Walden walk unless he prices himself out of the market. Bullpen has been very inconsistent this year and Walden is a solid 8th inning/back-up closer. This team always seems to play at the margins, which makes bullpen performance crucial.

I somewhat worry what Wren will do if he decides to get bold. Getting rid of B.J. Upton will be next to impossible unless we swallow all but a couple of million dollars. Only thing worse than paying him $15 million is paying him $12 million to play somewhere else. Plus, there's no CF-in-waiting (unless Peraza moves out there).
 
Starting pitching will have to be shored up given the impending free agency of Santana and Harang. This somewhat adds to the logic of revisiting the BJ Upton for Edwin Jackson trade. We need to build around the core of Teheran, Minor and Wood. Given that the priority is to extend Jason and Justin, I think Wren is going to have to be creative in adding starting pitching without adding much to payroll. I could see going with a rotation of Teheran, Minor, Wood, Jackson and Hale, with someone like Medlen or Floyd signed to an incentive laden deal.

We will need a little luck with the starting pitching. Someone to do something similar to what Harang has done this year.
 
I would sign Jason Hammel to a 3 year 21 million dollar deal if his market bottoms out.
 
Hale has done well in his spot starts. I think he has a repertoire that lends itself better to starting. I get the feeling the front office will give him a shot as the fifth starter. Still leaves an opening for a #4.
 
JUp is going to finish in the top 3 for MVP voting this year and is going to be insanely expensive to extend. He will make Freeman's deal look like chump change. Heyward finally had his healthy year and should be cheaper, so I would imagine he is much more likely than JUp to sign long term. Even if neither signs long term, I seriously don't see Wren trading away a key cog while the competitive window is open.

Make a QO to Santana and try to sign him to a 3 year deal. If he walks Wren will sign another middle of the rotation starter as well as a couple scrap heap reclamation projects.

Bring Bonifacio back to play CF and push BJ (assuming he can't be traded). Peraza will be learning CF in AA/AAA next year in hopes of coming into CF mid-season.
 
thethe said:
I would sign Jason Hammel to a 3 year 21 million dollar deal if his market bottoms out.
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Just curious ... why? I am not trying to argue or anything; I am just wondering what he adds that, say, Hale wouldn't save experience.
 
I would try to build the team around speed. Faster players generally play better defense, score more often when on base, are harder to double up, are better bunters/small ball, can cause defenses to make more errors, and can influence a pitchers concentration and pitch selection. These are all little things that can combined make a big difference. Here is how I would go about it.

1. I would offer Justin and Heywood 8 year 160 million extensions. I would back load the contracts so its like 4 years 60 million to start and 4 years 100 million in the last half of the contract. These would be extensions so they wouldnt even start until 2016. If we dont win more/draw more revenue I would plan on trading one or both 3 years into that deal. That would leave 5 years 115 million left which might be a bargain 4 years from now.

2. I would trade Gattis and a pitching prospect not named Sims/Hursh for Mookie Betts and Henry Owens of the Red Sox. The Red Sox catching situation is so bad that even Bethancourt would be an offensive upgrade. The Red Sox also lack power. Ortiz is their only power threat and he is old as dirt. Gattis catch on the road and play LF at home since the green monster makes him less of a defensive liability. Eventually moving to DH when Ortiz retires. Betts starts for us either in center or at second. I think we lack depth in the rotation going into 2015. Having Owens/Hursh at AAA and Sims at AA gives us good depth going forward.

3. I would trade Andrelton/BJ Upton/Chris Johnson/Elmer Reyes for Jose Reyes and Juan Francisco. If the Jays can get BJ back to just a 2 WAR player this would be a big win for them in my opinion. They might have the best hitting coach in the game and they play in a hitter friendly stadium. They turned Melky into a decent hitter without PED's and Chris Johnson is a similar hitter so I figure they take a chance on him as well. Lawrie hasnt worked out so well at second for them so I added Elmer Reyes to give them some depth at the position. They pay BJ's salary and we take on Reyes's salary. All works out about the same but in 4 years they will still have Andrelton and we will be paying Reyes 4 million not to play for us. Francisco will be 1B/3B reserve and be the power bat off the bench.

4. I would sign Chase Headley to a 1 year deal for what Chris Johnson would have made. If he can put up a .340 OBP and play great defense I will be happy with that. I would give Kubitza a full year at AAA and hope he will be ready to take over in 2016 so we can use the money at other positions.

5. I would seriously consider signing a free agent left handed reliever. I hate signing free agent relievers but its a gapping hole in the pen right now. Something like Andrew Miller 3 years 15 million total.

6. I would offer Santana 4 years 64 million with a big team option with a 4 million buyout. Thats 17 million a year with the buyout money. I still think he would decline though. If he declines I try to sign Peavy for 1-2 years.

7. For the bench I would re-sign Emilio Bonifacio. I would have La Stella play LF in winter ball. I guess Bello will be the backup catcher. Gosselin I would try to get more experience playing each infield position in winter ball. I would try to sign Grady Sizemore for backup outfield spot just so he wont hit against us.

So the opening day 25 man roster as I have it.

Teheran
Wood
Minor
Santana/Peavy/Other
Hale

Kimbrel
Walden
Simmons
Varvaro
Carpenter
Miller
Jamie

Bethancourt
Bello

Freeman
Peraza
Reyes
Headley
Bonifacio
La Stella
Gosselin

Heywood
JUpton
Betts
Sizemore

lineup would be something like

Reyes
Betts
Heywood
JUpton
Freeman
Headley
Bethancourt
Peraza
 
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