Inciarte's future
- Thread starter bravesfanforlife88
- Start date
Exactly. This notion that CF and SS need to be "fixed" when there are other holes on the roster is a little silly.
Catcher and LF/RF will take a lot of resources to fix adequately, so acting like the team is too good for cheap and competent options in SS and CF is dumb.
Russ2dollas
10 yr, $185 million Extension
I think you have to explore what you can get.
Comargo can play SS....I don't think he plays it well.
Acuna can play CF, I am not sure he's good there and who are in the corners?
I still think AA is going to make at least one giant trade.
AA has the money and the prospects to do a lot. Calling up some of those prospects being an option.
I think it's going to be a big offseason.
Southcack77
Well-known member
I did some rough estimates today (and then saw one of the braves blogger dudes with a serious spreadsheet had come up with a similar number) and came up with the Braves having about 40 million in free payroll (of 120m) to work with after arbitration.
If you dismiss thoughts of signing Machado, Harper, Pollack, or an elite arm, that's actually a load of money.
Catcher probably should not cost more than 10m on the high end. The remaining OF options probably should not run more than 15m. That leaves you 15m+ to spend with no glaring weaknesses. You could add a closer. Or you could build a killer bench of useful players.
Or you could look at moving assets around in attempt to upgrade positions that are currently adequate.
If you dismiss thoughts of signing Machado, Harper, Pollack, or an elite arm, that's actually a load of money.
Catcher probably should not cost more than 10m on the high end. The remaining OF options probably should not run more than 15m. That leaves you 15m+ to spend with no glaring weaknesses. You could add a closer. Or you could build a killer bench of useful players.
Or you could look at moving assets around in attempt to upgrade positions that are currently adequate.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
AA coveted Duvall for his power, defense and arm. If he had just that power and say Tucker's defense, I doubt that he is here now. Swanson is still starting at short because his defense is much improved this year. However, I do think it makes sense to sit Swanson vs lefties playing either Culberson or Camargo at short those games. However, I seriously doubt the Inciarte platoon ends up being a straight platoon as if Duvall really takes off I could just as easily see him installed at third base some games to keep his bat in there. If Joey Bats can get a shot at third why not Duvall if he starts hitting a lot of homers again?
NinersSBChamps
<B>Voted Worst Poster <br> 2015 (Co-Winner)</BR>20
More self validation.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Swanson is not a reverse split hitter. His career numbers show this. A lot of players will have a stretch that is really a small sample anomaly when it come to splits.
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
Ender's offensive numbers are pretty much on par with last year except for BABIP. SO I guess good job predicting BABIP fluctuation?
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
Ender wasn't getting unlucky, he had decided to start pulling the ball more than he ever has before the break and with his weak exit velocity, it led to his numbers diving (surprise surprise surprise, and a certain 2nd baseman going absolutely bonkers overall power wise, which was also not sustainable but not as laughable as Ender's early homers in 2017, probably pressured him a bit to try).
However, he's gone back toward his normal line for him hitting wise with Pull/Middle/Oppo, especially since the break, which should behoove him and since then, so far so good, he has a .368/.375/.474 overall line. It's actually been better overall since June 10th, he has a .275/.347/.376 line since then.
He has a chance to relive 2016 over again with a poor start and big finish, maybe not as big as 2016's was though.
However, he's gone back toward his normal line for him hitting wise with Pull/Middle/Oppo, especially since the break, which should behoove him and since then, so far so good, he has a .368/.375/.474 overall line. It's actually been better overall since June 10th, he has a .275/.347/.376 line since then.
He has a chance to relive 2016 over again with a poor start and big finish, maybe not as big as 2016's was though.
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
It's not just about whether he is or not, it's more about he has been worse vs lefties while other options hit them very well. His bat isn't his strength vs righties or lefties.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
actually we've had some discussions about whether Inciarte has an ability to outperform his batted ball profile...his results this year suggests maybe not
Braves1976
It's OVER 5,000!
He did hit in some "bad luck" if you want to call it that but I agree his main issue was getting too pull happy and I am glad he has fixed that.
GeorgiaGirl
NL Rookie of the Year
He can outperform it when he's being his normal self, a soft pinging hitter that only pulls true mistakes....which for some reason he chose to not do for a lot of this season. He's back to that, so it's going to be interesting to see what he does for the rest of the year.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
well I would be careful extrapolating from either Swanson's split data this year or Culberson's numbers this year. Take a look at Culberson's numbers in AAA last year. He didn't suddenly become a good hitter. Take a look at his BABIP and strikeout rate numbers this year.
I bet swanson outhits culberson against lefties the rest of this year. First time I've ever offered to bet on Dansby. Any takers?
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nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
yeah he can outperform it except for the times he doesnt
zitothebrave
Connoisseur of Minors
How was he outperforming them before? Looking at a guy who hits 23% line drives and 28% fly balls with plus speed. A guy with many more PA and a similar GB/FB/LD split is Starling Marte. Who has a career .350 BABIP. Granted Marte has a healthy chunk more power which would explain his much better ability there. But if Ender had his career .320 BABIP he'd have 13 more hits. Using his normal ratio of singles to XBH 11 singles and 2 doubles. If we tack those into his numbers for the year. His average climbs to .285 his OBP climbs to .346 and his slg rises to .382. Which basically puts him in line his his career norms. Effectively he is who he should be. Last year he was an overachiever, this year he's an under-achiever.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
Outperforming in the sense that xBABIP was higher than BABIP. For 2017 he had a .339 BABIP to go with a .261 xBABIP.
The way I would look at it is Inciarte does have some skills that allow him to outperform his xBABIP but certainly not to the extent seen in 2017 and probably not to the extent seen in his career numbers. His career number is .321. Maybe he is a true .300-.310 BABIP hitter.
So far in 2018 he is at .281, which I'm fairly confident is below his "true" level.
What's nice to see is that he is having a very good year defensively and in terms of base running. So even in a year where he is seeing some bad luck, he's a valuable player--on track for about a 2.5 WAR season. With "normal" luck he is about a 3.5 WAR player. I'll take that any day. And the contract is good value for that kind of production.
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