What I'm implying is that he's currently performing like a back-end MLB SP, while having the upside of something more than that if the stars align. He's also shown year-over-year improvement. Taking all these factors in consideration, I think he's on the path to earning a 2017 spot.
Also, have all the guys you listed flopped? That seems a little harsh, but I guess depends on one's expectations. I think Folty and Newcomb have met expectations. The others have not progressed as well as the organization had hoped.
I think they have all flopped this year. It doesn't mean they can't make strides next year though. They all certainly have the talent to do so.
I have a feeling Folty is going to be the next Jeff Samardzija or Nathan Eovaldi. Guys with excellent stuff that everyone was waiting to turn into a TOR guy, but ultimately settles in as a 3 or 4. I predict no less than 5,000 posts about Folty over the next 5 years that contain some version of, "he would be an Ace if he could only...".
The good news is guys like that tend to bring back disproportionately large returns in trades when compared to their actual production/projections.