Agreed.
Is it too much to ask?
- Thread starter TheBravos
- Start date
Agreed.
Ruiz happens to be 22 in AAA. Wisler is 23. Blair is 24. Weigel is 22. Povse is 23.
This board was going nuts just over a week ago because the brass was NUTS for rushing a 22 year old named Swanson who OBVIOUSLY wasn't close to "ready".
So where is that special number folks? If they're rushing Dansby, isn't it just a little early to expect these other guys to light the world on fire just yet?
His K/9 in AA with the Angels (only 36 innings) was 9.75. It's 9.73 in AA with the Braves. That seems consistent to me. BB/9 in AA last year dropped from 6 to 4.68 this year. HR/9 dropped from .5 to .29. His FIP this year is 3.23 which is a big improvement over the 3.94 last year. Yeah he had a 2.75 ERA in AA last year but that was also with a 235 BABIP. He is doing more than fine. And after his shellacking on July 8th he has been downright nasty. AKA improved as the season has progressed.
He's walked 86 though. He's never going to be successful walking anywhere close to 5 guys per 9.
You call it "lack of progress", I call it "flopped this year". I did not say they were a lost cause, in fact, I said they are talented enough to make the progress we were hoping to see next year.
Whatever you call it, their collective lack of progress has pushed the rebuild back at least 1 year.
And yes, I am also asserting the Braves would not have settled on Kemp if the young pitchers developed to the point this year where the rotation could be projected to be above average next year. Without the young guns contributing to the rotation it makes almost no sense to waste resources to acquire an impact bat for LF, so they settled on Kemp...a name they could sell to the ignorant fans as an improvement at a significantly lower cost than the 3-4 WAR player they need to acquire in order to realistically compete for a playoff spot.
yeezus
It's OVER 5,000!
This isn't necessarily true. If a couple guys finish strong this year and start strong next year, it's basically the same.
I think it is reasonable to expect good prospects to perform well at age 22 in AA. If they aren't, I see nothing wrong with throwing some caution into the wind. And I don't see anyone suggesting that Swanson isn't ready for the majors based on his numbers in AA. Sample size noise, yada yada, but he's not really tearing the cover off the ball in the majors that would suggest our organization saw something to suggest he's ready.
Yes, that means he goes 3-4 with a homer tonight. You are welcome.
rico43
<B>Director of Minor League Reports</B>
That trade was not about acquiring Kemp. It was about dumping Olivera and Kemp was the best salary match available. If Kemp does not show up in shape next spring, I can see him being dumped or dealt for scraps.
I think the Braves were looking to fill in LF for the next 2-3 seasons with someone that has power. They could have just as easily dumped HO and found someone via FA on a 3/26 or whatever contract and the money requirements would be the same. How good of a hitter can you get for 3/26 these days? If someone signs this off season for around that amount who's significantly better than Kemp then this trade is a huge bust.
If it was only about dumping Olivera they could have just DFA'd him and not taken on additional cost with Kemp. There was no need to throw more money at Kemp to get rid of Olivera. They needed a "name" player to sell to the fans, and Kemp was the cheapest "name" to acquire.
We don't have to agree on this. There are some that think Kemp is responsible for Freeman hitting well. There are some that think Kemp is exactly the type of #4 hitter this team needed. He will hit 25+ HRs next year and the casual fans will say, "finally we have a good power hitter!". That's exactly why he was acquired...to make it look like the team is trying to field a winner.
Then when he posts a low .300 OBP and is worth 1 total WAR in 2017, everyone will be wondering why the Braves only won 70 games despite having a "slugger" in the lineup with Freeman.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
You're not satisfied with Joel de la Cruz' performance? He has out-pitched my expectations.
That's exactly right, but there are no sluggers available outside of Cespedes for $100M+. If the young pitchers had progressed as expected I could see an argument for the Braves to "go for it" this offseason and add Ces to LF and Desmond for 3B. Or a trade to bring in someone like Longoria or McCutchen.
When it became apparent that Folty, Wisler and Newcomb weren't going to be anchoring an above average rotation next year, the Braves decided against committing a lot of resources to winning in 2017. That is a decision I agree with completely.
So what we got was Kemp, a guy that looks like an impact bat to ignorant fans, but didn't cost much at all to acquire. We have already seen the spin about how much Kemp loves the Braves and will be in much better shape next season. He doesn't hinder the rebuild in any way, so he was a low risk addition.
This same line of thinking is why we will probably see Mac acquired for a fungible prospect because he looks like a "winning" player to casual fans and acquiring him won't take anything away from the future success of the team. There will undoubtedly be stories about how Mac is invigorated to be back in Atlanta and will be poised to lead the Braves back to the promised land. Then he will go out and be the 2 WAR player he is now, and the Braves will still win about 70 games.
50PoundHead
Hessmania Forever
It's classic small sample size, but Kemp is 55% of the way to his pre-Braves' walk total in less than 20% of the comparative plate appearances since coming over from San Diego. He should lose some weight and no one is ever going to confuse him with a good fielding OF, but I think he can contribute. Cost, as others have said, is minimal and he's not blocking anyone at this point.
I agree with Kemp's walk rates since joining the Braves being a positive. Both the eye test and the stats say he has been pretty disciplined and can be back to his non-SD BB rate of 8%.
That is the most encouraging sign from Kemp, in my opinion, and is why I think he'll be a ~1 WAR player for the Braves rather than a 0 WAR player.
nsacpi
Expects Yuge Games
my take too...and im hopeful losing 20-30 lbs will help his defense
I also wouldn't use Allard. I would only use Newcomb, Soroka, or Toussaint if they were the only big piece we gave up.
Archer is good, but he's not great.
bravesfanMatt
Steve Harvey'd
I am much higher on touki and newcomb than most. So I want to keep them too. Homer I guess
Southcack77
Well-known member
There are a lot of different ways of looking at the Oliveira trade. Not too many of them make a whole lot of sense to me.
I don't really see taking on an additional 12 million per year in salary for three years as a salary dump. If they wanted to dump his salary all they had to do was cut him. All they really dumped through the trade was their obligation to him in 2020.
To me, clearly the impetus was to acquire Kemp. I think they acquired Kemp because he was a power bat that helped balance the lineup and will perhaps make the team more respectable, or at least appear more respectable. I think there is a little more chance than some others do for him to have a resurgent season, particularly if the Braves give him regular rest. I think giving him rest is in their interest as they need to get Mallex at bats if for no other reason than to showcase him to trade.
To some degree he is a buy low candidate as he quite literally cost nothing other than taking on salary. The Padres didn't really trade Kemp away so much as pay the Braves to take him on. As this is the second organization that has done that, I wouldn't count on the Braves getting much back for him if he doesn't have a career resurgence. Most likely, the Braves will have to pay someone to take him off their hands to get rid of him or simply eat the contract. If they can get any sort of useful piece for him at any point, I think it would be a good idea to move him immediately.
I think Kemp probably helps Atlanta some. If they go out and acquire a couple of MLB capable pitchers, they might well be able to stay in the theoretical wild card chase for much of the season with better luck than they had this year.
But I wouldn't confuse that for contending.
We didnt have to take on more money though, that was the decision of the org.
How much would we have to pay for another team to take that contract?