It's official: Aaron Blair being recalled to make his first MLB start

chop2chip said:
Bold assumption.
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Is it really? There were a few grumblings that they didn't want to commit that much money to a guy who can't hit.

Again is there any benefit for the Braves to not hold him back a couple of more weeks to avoid an extra round of arbitration?
 
nsacpi said:
Maybe its selective memory but I don't remember Theo Epstein trying to spin the Cubs rebuild.
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I would argue that most teams that go into rebuild mode set out a plan to be relevant again in X years. Usually a number that's around 5. But I guess that's not the #BravesWay.
 
thewupk said:
I would argue that most teams that go into rebuild mode set out a plan to be relevant again in X years. Usually a number that's around 5. But I guess that's not the #BravesWay.
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We're a gold standard franchise as we are often reminded. So we do things in a superior way. Smugly superior to be precise.
 
nsacpi said:
I'm not sure I understand. Are you saying Cubs revenues are less sensitive to the team's record?
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That is correct.

When the Cubs suck they might have a few thousand unsold seats per game. The Braves in a similar spot are lucky to sell half the tickets for any given game.
 
skillet said:
Because this team has absolutely no power. Our team slugging percentage is below .300, much lower than the next worst. Almost unbelievable to be this bereft of power.
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When basically the entirety of the teams power comes from Freeman who's been struggling, it shouldn't be shocking. We no longer have Heyward or Justin, our next biggest power contributions come from either C or RF, where Markakis is way below average for the corner OF.

We're a seriously miserable team so far, as far into the season as we are, we have only 4 players with a positive fWAR, Markakis (off to another hot start), FLowers (who can't get more PT than Pierzinski) Castro, and Stubbs.

On some peripherals here's our rankings in all of baseball

BB%, 16th

K%, 19th

iso, 30th, by a lot (Astros have the next lowest iso and they're 48 points higher, meaning the team in 29th is closer to the top half of the league than the Braves are to 2nd to last)

BABIP, 13th

So looking at it, the failure is that we don't walk or strikeout well enough for the absense of power. When you have no power, you need to cut down on your Ks and put the ball in play. When you fail at those you can recover some value by walking a ton. We're not doing any of it well, and given that we have defensive issues at some positions, we can't afford to not be hitting.

In the end, the Braves are a team that is in a rebuilding mode that's truly painful to watch.
 
20% over a five year period.

Atlanta's attendance dropped 15% from 2014 to 2015 alone, or 4356 per game. 22% from 2013 to 2015 - 6756 per game drop over that time frame.

During the time frame you used, the largest single season drop in Cubs ticket sales was 2964 per game, or 8.3%. That was on a larger average attendance than what Atlanta had as well.

The assertion that the Cubs ticket sales are not as closely related to won/loss record is correct.
 
DirkPiggler said:
20% over a five year period.

Atlanta's attendance dropped 15% from 2014 to 2015 alone, or 4356 per game. 22% from 2013 to 2015 - 6756 per game drop over that time frame.

During the time frame you used, the largest single season drop in Cubs ticket sales was 2964 per game, or 8.3%. That was on a larger average attendance than what Atlanta had as well.

The assertion that the Cubs ticket sales are not as closely related to won/loss record is correct.
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Yeah. You're right. And it could have been worse if the front office has not been so skillful in managing the expectations of the casual fan.
 
It's going to be much worse this year. Last year's team had a decent record until the halfway point - at least decent enough to keep people coming to the park. Casual fans will buy average. They won't buy terrible or worse.
 
DirkPiggler said:
It's going to be much worse this year. Last year's team had a decent record until the halfway point - at least decent enough to keep people coming to the park. Casual fans will buy average. They won't buy terrible or worse.
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Especially in ATL. It isn't on anyones bucket list to watch a game at the Ted.
 
DirkPiggler said:
It's going to be much worse this year. Last year's team had a decent record until the halfway point - at least decent enough to keep people coming to the park. Casual fans will buy average. They won't buy terrible or worse.
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I wonder if revenues will come in below projections and if it will affect spending in the international market.
 
thewupk said:
Is it really? There were a few grumblings that they didn't want to commit that much money to a guy who can't hit.

Again is there any benefit for the Braves to not hold him back a couple of more weeks to avoid an extra round of arbitration?
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But you could at least make baseball sense out of that trade. Not that I agree with the return, but I definitely understood trading Simmons.

I already told you there really isn't that much I could argue "in favor" of promoting Blair now. I just don't care about super 2 status. I don't have the heart to get that caught up in the little accounting details.
 
chop2chip said:
I read a study a couple year's back that showed that the Cubs have the least sensitive attendance numbers in baseball.
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Small stadium with a lot of history. National fan base. Even when they are bad, people go to the ballpark to soak in the history along with some suds. I've been there four or five times when in Chicago for various reasons. It's quite an experience.
 
mqt said:
I'm actually pretty okay with the decision. I feel like pitching is the one area we can afford to do this right now, because with the sheer volume of pitching prospects we have, we probably should get an idea of which ones are going to stick before our 40 man becomes a nightmare.
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That's exactly the reason I didn't feel it was a good idea. We're all but "sure" Blair is going to stick, and there were other starters that are already on the 40-Man Roster that we want to "take a look at" that could've taken yesterday's start WITHOUT adding to those troubles. Blair now HAS to stay on it, and that severely limits flexibility. While that may not become an immediate concern, adding him certainly speeds up that timetable. Norris is an obvious throwaway at some point, but there aren't many other Pitchers who are if we want to have any semblance of a pen.

If you believe in Folty as a starter, you now have...

Julio
Blair
Wisler
Chacin
Folty

if/when you DFA Norris (nobody's trading for him at this early point in the season). Considering the fact that we'd like to keep Chacin around (and the fact that he's probably been as good as anyone we have thus far), which one of those guys are you going to take out of the rotation to get a look at Gant again? Then who do you take out to take a look at Jenkins? Then you're looking at an even bigger mess when camp opens next spring and you add Sims and Newcomb to the mix.

I've been the loudest when it comes to transitioning Folty to the pen and still think that's in his future, but I agree with giving him one more shot in the rotation. The fact remains that these decisions are going to have to be made relatively soon, and starting Blair's clock when you had other options available to step in yesterday (particularly Folty) simply complicates things unnecessarily.
 
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