Jim Johnson

nsacpi said:
We'll spend about 40 million on a group of acquisitions that resemble this: Jason Castro, Andrew Cashner, Jorge de la Rosa, Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur.

That will put us in the 80-85 range on the expected win curve.
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I agree with your general premise, but I don't think all the additions will come as FAs.

I think Castro and De La Rosa are very likely targets, and they would cost a combined ~$25M per year.

I also think KJ and Frenchy (or similar) are likely additions to the bench for a total cost of $2M-$3M per year.

Ideally, I would like to see one of Inciarte or Mallex (plus an arm) traded to bring in a controllable SP or 3B.

If one of Mallex or Inciarte are traded, I would like to see Rajai Davis signed to be the 4th OFer.
 
Enscheff said:
I agree with your general premise, but I don't think all the additions will come as FAs.

I think Castro and De La Rosa are very likely targets, and they would cost a combined ~$25M per year.

I also think KJ and Frenchy (or similar) are likely additions to the bench for a total cost of $2M-$3M per year.

Ideally, I would like to see one of Inciarte or Mallex (plus an arm) traded to bring in a controllable SP or 3B.

If one of Mallex or Inciarte are traded, I would like to see Rajai Davis signed to be the 4th OFer.
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Yeah. If another team offered good value for Mallex or Ender, we could go in that direction.
 
The Rays and Royals are both teams that will be looking to cut payroll and have decent (or at least "stable") SPs they could trade.

The Royals have Duffy, Kennedy and maybe Ventura. They also have Hunter Dozier who is somewhat blocked by Moustakas and Gordon that could be packaged with a salary dump like Kennedy.

The Rays have Odorizzi and Smyly (they won't sell low on Archer, and Coppy said they won't splurge on someone like that).

Then the Twins with Santana is another option. So is Shields from the ChiSox.
 
Would love Dozier, but I gotta guess they would rather trade Moustakas before Dozier. I would sure like to see Dozier standing at 3rd.
 
5 million per yr seems high to me.

I think we have lots of arm talent in Simmons paco Cabrera winkler and minter. Unfortunately most are coming off injury
 
nsacpi said:
We'll spend about 40 million on a group of acquisitions that resemble this: Jason Castro, Andrew Cashner, Jorge de la Rosa, Kelly Johnson, Jeff Francoeur.

That will put us in the 80-85 range on the expected win curve.
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That's horrible. A veritable basket of deplorables.
 
If we're going to add five players like that, I really don't see the point. We might as well keep auditioning Aaron Blair and Williams Perez and catching Anthony Recker.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
If we're going to add five players like that, I really don't see the point. We might as well keep auditioning Aaron Blair and Williams Perez and catching Anthony Recker.
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That is likely what will be available to add UNLESS you are willing to trade significant prospect pieces that were brought in as part of the rebuild. I'm pretty sure that a quantity trade of marginal guys (at least as shown so far) like Ellis, Gant, Whalen, etc. for an Archer or Gray ISN'T going to happen. Other teams can and would pay far more.

What nsacpi has laid out above is probably the neighborhood of what will happen, exchanging a name here or there. Now, I don't agree that those moves would put the Braves on an 80-85 win curve but that's a different point.

I have long said, don't worry about 2017. Trying to compete is a fool's errand based on what the Braves have been doing (bringing in as much young talent as possible) and what the market is doing (prospect value is at a very high level) and what FA allows (worst FA market in probably 20 years).

Now, the FO likely believes that they have to at least present the dog and pony show of a contender to appease Joe fan and the business interests surrounding the new stadium but for the best long term capability and health of the franchise, trying to compete in 2017 is about the worst thing they can do, unless it is just all cosmetic make believe.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
If we're going to add five players like that, I really don't see the point. We might as well keep auditioning Aaron Blair and Williams Perez and catching Anthony Recker.
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Unfortunately, those are the types of moves we get when the organization wants to make it look like they are trying to compete even though they know the team isn't ready.

I disagree about Castro being a poor option though. I think he is an ideal platoon partner for Flowers, and he is elite defensively. I would expect that combo to be worth close to 3 wins if deployed properly, in addition to ~25 framing runs combined that aren't factored into their WAR values.
 
Enscheff said:
Unfortunately, those are the types of moves we get when the organization wants to make it look like they are trying to compete even though they know the team isn't ready.

I disagree about Castro being a poor option though. I think he is an ideal platoon partner for Flowers, and he is elite defensively. I would expect that combo to be worth close to 3 wins if deployed properly, in addition to ~25 framing runs combined that aren't factored into their WAR values.
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The issue that I see with Castro is the same one I see with most FA catchers. He's 30. I think catchers are subject to steep declines after 30.

OTOH he hits lefty so that platoons well with Flowers.

I guess it would depend on the price in dollars and years.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
That is likely what will be available to add UNLESS you are willing to trade significant prospect pieces that were brought in as part of the rebuild. I'm pretty sure that a quantity trade of marginal guys (at least as shown so far) like Ellis, Gant, Whalen, etc. for an Archer or Gray ISN'T going to happen. Other teams can and would pay far more.

What nsacpi has laid out above is probably the neighborhood of what will happen, exchanging a name here or there. Now, I don't agree that those moves would put the Braves on an 80-85 win curve but that's a different point.

I have long said, don't worry about 2017. Trying to compete is a fool's errand based on what the Braves have been doing (bringing in as much young talent as possible) and what the market is doing (prospect value is at a very high level) and what FA allows (worst FA market in probably 20 years).

Now, the FO likely believes that they have to at least present the dog and pony show of a contender to appease Joe fan and the business interests surrounding the new stadium but for the best long term capability and health of the franchise, trying to compete in 2017 is about the worst thing they can do, unless it is just all cosmetic make believe.
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the two-track analogy applies to what i outlined...if things go well in 2017 we are competing for a playoff spot...if things go badly guys like de la Rosa, Cashner, Francouer and KJ are flippable assets that can be used to improve future teams
 
Horsehide Harry said:
The issue that I see with Castro is the same one I see with most FA catchers. He's 30. I think catchers are subject to steep declines after 30.

OTOH he hits lefty so that platoons well with Flowers.

I guess it would depend on the price in dollars and years.
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He's hit .210-.220 the last three years and as you point out long in the tooth. I'm sure he's an elite framer and all, but I couldn't help noticing he lost half of his job to Evan Gattis. Gattis, incidentally, does not have elite framing skills.
 
Enscheff said:
Unfortunately, those are the types of moves we get when the organization wants to make it look like they are trying to compete even though they know the team isn't ready.

I disagree about Castro being a poor option though. I think he is an ideal platoon partner for Flowers, and he is elite defensively. I would expect that combo to be worth close to 3 wins if deployed properly, in addition to ~25 framing runs combined that aren't factored into their WAR values.
Click to expand...

I don't think they're going to fool a lot of people with those moves. I'm not horribly against Castro in a David Ross 300 AB kind of way. Hopefully there's not some vestigial belief that he's much more than that and doesn't cost more than 4-5m.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
That is likely what will be available to add UNLESS you are willing to trade significant prospect pieces that were brought in as part of the rebuild. I'm pretty sure that a quantity trade of marginal guys (at least as shown so far) like Ellis, Gant, Whalen, etc. for an Archer or Gray ISN'T going to happen. Other teams can and would pay far more.

What nsacpi has laid out above is probably the neighborhood of what will happen, exchanging a name here or there. Now, I don't agree that those moves would put the Braves on an 80-85 win curve but that's a different point.

I have long said, don't worry about 2017. Trying to compete is a fool's errand based on what the Braves have been doing (bringing in as much young talent as possible) and what the market is doing (prospect value is at a very high level) and what FA allows (worst FA market in probably 20 years).

Now, the FO likely believes that they have to at least present the dog and pony show of a contender to appease Joe fan and the business interests surrounding the new stadium but for the best long term capability and health of the franchise, trying to compete in 2017 is about the worst thing they can do, unless it is just all cosmetic make believe.
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I wish one of the pieces were a keeper. I understand everything you're saying, I'm just at that point where I'm wondering why we wouldn't start flipping some of our 15 (no exaggeration) pitching prospects for other types of assets. They don't do us any good if we don't pitch them or spend them.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
I wish one of the pieces were a keeper. I understand everything you're saying, I'm just at that point where I'm wondering why we wouldn't start flipping some of our 15 (no exaggeration) pitching prospects for other types of assets. They don't do us any good if we don't pitch them or spend them.
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which of those pitching prospects has any significant trade value?
 
nsacpi said:
which of those pitching prospects has any significant trade value?
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Well, you guys have been talking about them for months now. Rome and Mississippi's rotations should have some attractive arms. If we were to peel off Soroka and another high end guy and a lesser light for, say, Chris Archer, I'd be all over that. It still leaves you a mess of pitching prospects and now you have a guy to pair with Teheran at the top.

I place more value on proven ML talent over prospects than many of the guys here, but I think it's correct. We overvalue prospects a bit.
 
GovClintonTyree said:
He's hit .210-.220 the last three years and as you point out long in the tooth. I'm sure he's an elite framer and all, but I couldn't help noticing he lost half of his job to Evan Gattis. Gattis, incidentally, does not have elite framing skills.
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Castro caught 113 games last year, which is pretty typical for a non-star starting catcher. Considering all the other options available, like Weiters and his putrid offense coupled with horrendous defense, Castro is the best available.

He also posted a .757 OPS vs RHers that would platoon well with Flowers.

You're right, he shouldn't cost much (relatively speaking), and he shouldn't have a QO attached. Ideally he signs for 3-4 years and transitions to being the backup after Flowers leaves.
 
I'm not sure I agree with the idea of platooning at catcher. The idea is to develop chemistry with the pitchers moreso than playing the lefty righty matchup.
 
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