John Sickel's Top 200 Prospect List

smootness said:
If Whalen gets much more than 1 WAR in any season, I'll be pretty dang surprised.

I think Povse's best bet is as a 7th or 8th inning RP, but I'm not sure he gets there.
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That is safe to say about 80% of all pitching prospects. But his minor league numbers of a fairly nice sample size is encouraging. I completely discount his MLB numbers as he was pitching well over his normal yearly work. But overall for a 23 year old to posses a 3.25 ERA/ 1.1 WHip/ 8 Kper9/ 3 BBper9... those are good numbers for any prospect. So my question to everyone, is what stats make you think he is awful?
 
bravesfanMatt said:
That is safe to say about 80% of all pitching prospects. But his minor league numbers of a fairly nice sample size is encouraging. I completely discount his MLB numbers as he was pitching well over his normal yearly work. But overall for a 23 year old to posses a 3.25 ERA/ 1.1 WHip/ 8 Kper9/ 3 BBper9... those are good numbers for any prospect. So my question to everyone, is what stats make you think he is awful?
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I don't think he's awful. I just think he's an arm, same as a whole bunch of guys you can find a lot of places.

Last year represented an uptick in K rate, so it'll be interesting to see if that can continue. If it can, he may become something more, but his results prior to that weren't great, as he wasn't K'ing a lot of guys and was still walking a decent amount. And based on his scouting reports, he doesn't have any special pitches. He has a decent sinker and a potentially good slider, and that's pretty much it. Doesn't change speeds that well and has struggled with command at times.

I just don't see him as a guy with much potential. If those numbers were put up in the majors, then obviously he'd be very good. But it's not like those are great minor league numbers for a guy you're hoping to stick in a major league rotation long-term.
 
My signature bet. # of 23 year old pitchers who produce a 2.5 WAR. (finishes the season 23 or younger).. I set the over/under at SIX!!

**edit** take my bet or shut up when the adults are talking about 23 year old pitchers.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
not for you.. but to expect a 23 year old pitcher to come out and post a 2.5 WAR is pretty ludicrous .

6 pitchers did it in 2016 and 3 did it in 2015. I think it is dumb to expect Whalen to produce a 2.5 WAR.
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Then we are in complete agreement. I'm not the one who called Whalen a 3/4 starter. That was the other brainiacs who frequent this board...the same posters who thought the Braves could land Sale for a collection of spare parts...or had a shot at signing Grienke...or Price...or, you get the idea.

If you want to say Whalen, "might not even pitch 60 innings at the MLB level this year, and if he does pitch a full load has a ceiling of 1.6 WAR", you won't get a disagreement from me. That is the very definition of a AAAA pitcher, which is what I claimed Whalen was from day 1.
 
Enscheff said:
Then we are in complete agreement. I'm not the one who called Whalen a 3/4 starter. That was the other brainiacs who frequent this board...the same posters who thought the Braves could land Sale for a collection of spare parts...or had a shot at signing Grienke...or Price...or, you get the idea.

If you want to say Whalen, "might not even pitch 60 innings at the MLB level this year, and if he does pitch a full load has a ceiling of 1.6 WAR", you won't get a disagreement from me. That is the very definition of a AAAA pitcher, which is what I claimed Whalen was from day 1.
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Whalen ceiling is probably #3.. that is if things break right and he just clicks. I think he might be closer to #5 who is serviceable and sometimes good. someone who pitches to 150 innings and produces 2 - 3 War occasionally. I think Povse is about the same but a bit further away. Both of those are more valuable imo than Jackson. That said, I don't mind buying lottery tickets.. even if we paid more than we should to get them. But I still didn't like the trade personally.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Whalen ceiling is probably #3.. that is if things break right and he just clicks. I think he might be closer to #5 who is serviceable and sometimes good. someone who pitches to 150 innings and produces 2 - 3 War occasionally. I think Povse is about the same but a bit further away. Both of those are more valuable imo than Jackson. That said, I don't mind buying lottery tickets.. even if we paid more than we should to get them. But I still didn't like the trade personally.
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Just so I'm clear...

You think a #5 starter is "someone who pitches to 150 innings and produces 2 - 3 War occasionally"?

Everyone else in the baseball world calls that a 3/4 starter, so I would like to make sure I understand what you mean.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I need to be clearer. Someone who will occasionally produce those numbers. not consistently.
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So your conclusion on Whalen is that he will be one of:

1. A #3 starter if everything clicks and produces 3 WAR per year (a role 60 player).

2. His most likely outcome is a guy who occasionally throws 150 innings and produces 2-3 WAR (let's call that a role 50 player).

3. A guy that doesn't even pitch 60 innings per year at the MLB level (role 40 or less).

So you have predicted Whalen to be anywhere from a role 35-40 to role 60 player. That's really going out on a limb there haha!
 
Enscheff said:
So your conclusion on Whalen is that he will be one of:

1. A #3 starter if everything clicks and produces 3 WAR per year (a role 60 player).

2. His most likely outcome is a guy who occasionally throws 150 innings and produces 2-3 WAR (let's call that a role 50 player).

3. A guy that doesn't even pitch 60 innings per year at the MLB level (role 40 or less).

So you have predicted Whalen to be anywhere from a role 35-40 to role 60 player. That's really going out on a limb there haha!
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stay close to the trunk.. to be fair, I did say he might only pitch 60 innings this year.. he is 23 for god sakes. I really doubt he goes out and pitches 130 innings for the Mariners. I think he settles into a nice career bouncing from a couple of teams and pitches 120 - 150 innings. He will have 2 outlier years where he goes 150+ with a sub 4 ERA...
 
I wonder what the delta is between elite prospects and major league average players

IOW is it better to have 2-3 super prospects who turn into yearly AllStar guys, say 4-5 win type guys and nothing else in your system OR is it better to have 14 guys that contribute at the ML me level but never star?

I would take the all star scenario because the avg guys can be found easier than finding the all star guys externally

A difference between high end and high volume prospects. Ideally you would have both
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I wonder what the delta is between elite prospects and major league average players

IOW is it better to have 2-3 super prospects who turn into yearly AllStar guys, say 4-5 win type guys and nothing else in your system OR is it better to have 14 guys that contribute at the ML me level but never star?

I would take the all star scenario because the avg guys can be found easier than finding the all star guys externally

A difference between high end and high volume prospects. Ideally you would have both
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I think high end is better partly because roster size is limited and that and other factors limits a manager's ability to share innings and at bats over a large number of players.
 
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(1) Whalen may turn out to be a fungible back-end starter/long reliever type. Doesn't have great stuff, but I like his aggressiveness.

(2) Povse seemed to find something this year. Surprised Sickels has him ranked, but like Whalen, I wouldn't be surprised if he ends up in the big leagues at some point.

(3) I doubt Jackson ever plays above AA. Still, I suppose you have to gamble every now and then.

(4) As per earlier comment on why Dustin Peterson isn't in the Top 200 (and this is coming from a fan of him), I don't think his ceiling is that high. I do think he will play in the big leagues and be a solid contributor, but I don't think his tools scream out "Top 200." I always hate to pull out a Minnesota Twin analogy, but Peterson may end up being someone like Marty Cordova.
 
Horsehide Harry said:
I wonder what the delta is between elite prospects and major league average players

IOW is it better to have 2-3 super prospects who turn into yearly AllStar guys, say 4-5 win type guys and nothing else in your system OR is it better to have 14 guys that contribute at the ML me level but never star?

I would take the all star scenario because the avg guys can be found easier than finding the all star guys externally

A difference between high end and high volume prospects. Ideally you would have both
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Without question you want the stars. Unless you are completely clueless it shouldn't be that hard to find your roleplayers to round out a major league team. Luckily the Braves seem to have an abundance of both atm.
 
thewupk said:
Without question you want the stars. Unless you are completely clueless it shouldn't be that hard to find your roleplayers to round out a major league team. Luckily the Braves seem to have an abundance of both atm.
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Agreed, give me the stars. A single 6 win player is more valuable than a pair of 3 win players because all MLB teams should be able to add a player that produces more than 0 WAR to take up the free roster spot, thus producing more wins overall.

There is certainly some kind of "WAR concentration value", but I haven't seen any work done on quantifying it.

Yet another point in favor of drafting BPA rather than a grab bag of "signable" guys.
 
Enscheff said:
Agreed, give me the stars. A single 6 win player is more valuable than a pair of 3 win players because all MLB teams should be able to add a player that produces more than 0 WAR to take up the free roster spot, thus producing more wins overall.

There is certainly some kind of "WAR concentration value", but I haven't seen any work done on quantifying it.

Yet another point in favor of drafting BPA rather than a grab bag of "signable" guys.
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Baseball America seems to agree with the Braves that we did draft BPA.
 
Enscheff said:
Yet another point in favor of drafting BPA rather than a grab bag of "signable" guys.
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Who says we didn't draft BPA?

There are a lot of industry folks who when they talk about Ian Anderson stress that he wasn't just a signability pick - people have obsessed over the fact that we got him underslot, but what if the Braves thought he was a top of the board player AND we were able to get him underslot? That is a possibility here.

I'm convinced pre-season and pre-draft rankings play a huge role here, if some ranking had Ian Anderson as a top-5 player people would have loved the pick despite the fact that many of those guys doing the rankings don't have the time or resources to really fully scout all of these guys.
 
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