June Rule IV pre-draft Thread

smootness said:
I would be extremely disappointed with Bickford at 14 and very surprised if the Braves do that. I think they're looking at Stephenson and Whitley. Just my guess.

As others have said, high-upside arms are actually pretty deep in this draft, even if some have injury concerns. You can get value there later. The real value at the top is the high-upside bats.
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I don't disagree, but the Phils seem wedded to Stephenson at this point. I could go for Whitley, I just think it would run against the Braves' pattern.
 
50PoundHead said:
It will be interesting to watch where a few former Braves' picks from recent years end up. As I pointed out in an earlier post, OFs Gio Brusa (Pacific), Braden Bishop (Washington) and Ben Johnson (Texas) end up. RHP Jimmy Herget from the 2012 draft is also likely to go on the second day.

So, in brief, I'm expecting a lot of pitching and very few college picks early. Like everyone else, I'm always too optimistic about who will be available when we pick, so I've likely overshot reality. The other thing to keep in mind is that with the pool limits (and even though we've garnered more room through trades, there's only so much), we will likely have to take a couple of below slot guys relatively early so we can move money toward guys with higher salary demands. That's the downside of drafting high-ceiling high school kids because they have leverage.

Have at me.
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This is where I always fear problems could arise when I try to project what might happen - especially in a year like this where we have so many picks and EVERYONE knows we can spend more than most teams. My heart tends to take over and I always feel like any Georgia, Carolinas, or Tennessee kids we pick will be easy negotiations and they'll all sign for slot. The Braves have been most of these kids favorite team all their lives, so getting drafted by them and then getting paid to be part of the organization is the "icing on the cake" - whatever amount of dollars worth of icing that is.

For a lot of those kids it IS just that way - Francoeur sent letters to all the teams picking in front of us telling them not to bother picking him because he was going to go to Clemson if he wasn't a Brave. Braxton Davidson wasn't going to haggle. If we needed to move money around to sign a J-Up/Price/Weiters/whomever, the line to renegotiate contracts to provide flexibility would start behind Cameron Maybin. Both those guys grew up dreaming about playing for the Braves, and money wasn't/won't be anywhere near their most important concerns. Alex Wood was an easy sign. B Mac, Heyward, and on-and-on.

That's something I'm sure Hart's Lieutenants have been working on over the last few weeks - making sure that IF Stephenson or Cameron happened to be there at #14 knowing whether they'll sign quickly (and for slot or less) so we're in position to gobble up an Allard, Everett, Randolph, or Aiken if they're there at #28, or do we need to look elsewhere for someone who will? If Randolph somehow slid to #28, would he sign quickly (and for slot) so we could scoop up one of those Pitchers (or Russell, McKenzie, Nix, Chalmers, or Betts) at #35?

My default issue is that I always think "of course they will - who grew up within shouting distance of Atlanta wouldn't" - but that's not necessarily the case. While the money might not be the sole concern for some, there will be one or two (one of these days) that it will be.
 
nsacpi said:
The question is whether the high upside bats are there at #14. Both Whitley and Stephenson are likely gone by then. In which case we will turn to a HS pitcher.
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I haven't seen any mock draft that has Whitley gone by 14. It's possible, since most have him 16/17, but not likely. Cornelius Randolph is also a guy there the Braves have been tied to.

I would much rather the Braves take one of those 3, then go after a high-upside arm, even if it involves risk, at 28 than to go pitching at 14. The positional talent drops off pretty quickly. And I've seen a projection on Betts that has him 15-25, not to mention that he's unlikely to stick at catcher.
 
smootness said:
I haven't seen any mock draft that has Whitley gone by 14. It's possible, since most have him 16/17, but not likely. Cornelius Randolph is also a guy there the Braves have been tied to.

I would much rather the Braves take one of those 3, then go after a high-upside arm, even if it involves risk, at 28 than to go pitching at 14. The positional talent drops off pretty quickly. And I've seen a projection on Betts that has him 15-25, not to mention that he's unlikely to stick at catcher.
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I've seen a mock that has the Braves taking Happ, who is a very good college hitter that will likely end up in the OF. Would that be a reasonable move from your perspective? I'm just asking. I can be persuaded any which way.

I can see a scenario where they take a pitcher at #14 and hitter at #28 or vice versa. If Betts can't stay at C for the long-term, I don't see why the Braves would go that direction.
 
50PoundHead said:
I've seen a mock that has the Braves taking Happ, who is a very good college hitter that will likely end up in the OF. Would that be a reasonable move from your perspective? I'm just asking. I can be persuaded any which way.

I can see a scenario where they take a pitcher at #14 and hitter at #28 or vice versa. If Betts can't stay at C for the long-term, I don't see why the Braves would go that direction.
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I do like Happ; I just figure he probably won't be there at 14. But if he is, I think that would be a great pick. Switch-hitter, good athlete, patience and power. That would be a great fit, and he's the kind of guy who could potentially get to the majors at some point in 2017.

And I'm no expert on these guys by any means. I just generally want us to take a few high-upside bats early, and from what I've read, I would rank them in this order (of the guys who have any remote chance of falling to 14):

1. Daz Cameron (probably no chance of falling unless he just demands too much)
2. Tyler Stephenson
3. Ian Happ
4. Garrett Whitley

I would be more than pleased with any of those guys. I would rank all of the pitchers who might be there below those 4.
 
smootness said:
I haven't seen any mock draft that has Whitley gone by 14. It's possible, since most have him 16/17, but not likely. Cornelius Randolph is also a guy there the Braves have been tied to.

I would much rather the Braves take one of those 3, then go after a high-upside arm, even if it involves risk, at 28 than to go pitching at 14. The positional talent drops off pretty quickly. And I've seen a projection on Betts that has him 15-25, not to mention that he's unlikely to stick at catcher.
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The latest BA mock draft has Stephenson going at #10 and Whitley at #13. The positional talent does drop off quickly, which is why I expect them to fly off the board. Everyone is going to be thinking hitting with their first pick and pitching with their second.
 
nsacpi said:
The latest BA mock draft has Stephenson going at #10 and Whitley at #13. The positional talent does drop off quickly, which is why I expect them to fly off the board. Everyone is going to be thinking hitting with their first pick and pitching with their second.
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That's fine, but I still think it's untrue that Whitley is 'unlikely' to be there. I think that's actually likely. There's a chance he's not, but I doubt Stephenson and Whitley are both gone. And if they are, Happ may fall.
 
The lack of a board consensus this year means there is an excellent chance than 1-2 guys most of us see as far below 14 are likely to be picked ahead of Atlanta. Someone really good will fall to us.
 
The Braves have also been connected by some to a toolsy high school outfielder from Texas named Trenton Clark.

I think the name to keep in mind with Atlanta though is RHP Mike Nikorak.
 
KB21 said:
The Braves have also been connected by some to a toolsy high school outfielder from Texas named Trenton Clark.

I think the name to keep in mind with Atlanta though is RHP Mike Nikorak.
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Sounds like he might be the best HS hitter in the draft.
 
rico43 said:
The lack of a board consensus this year means there is an excellent chance than 1-2 guys most of us see as far below 14 are likely to be picked ahead of Atlanta. Someone really good will fall to us.
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Fourteenth slot, chance of a good hitter falling—man, it'd be great if the Braves could nab a tall, muscular, fast, super athletic, excellent defending outfielder with superlative plate discipline and projectable power to maybe pin too much hope on.
 
jpx7 said:
Fourteenth slot, chance of a good hitter falling—man, it'd be great if the Braves could nab a tall, muscular, fast, super athletic, excellent defending outfielder with superlative plate discipline and projectable power to maybe pin too much hope on.
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Maybe we can trade for him?
 
jpx7 said:
Fourteenth slot, chance of a good hitter falling—man, it'd be great if the Braves could nab a tall, muscular, fast, super athletic, excellent defending outfielder with superlative plate discipline and projectable power to maybe pin too much hope on.
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Maybe a local kid. An easy sign?!?
 
jpx7 said:
Fourteenth slot, chance of a good hitter falling—man, it'd be great if the Braves could nab a tall, muscular, fast, super athletic, excellent defending outfielder with superlative plate discipline and projectable power to maybe pin too much hope on.
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plus this time we can be careful to not raise expectations about him too high and risk disappointing part of the fanbase
 
I know the complainers/haters arguement is old, but Heyward does come up (even organically) sometimes... It's not just one side
 
jpx7 said:
Fourteenth slot, chance of a good hitter falling—man, it'd be great if the Braves could nab a tall, muscular, fast, super athletic, excellent defending outfielder with superlative plate discipline and projectable power to maybe pin too much hope on.
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We already have Maybin.
 
Some of the college pitchers that might have been picked early have faltered a bit and are sliding. This will increase the number of teams taking the better HS hitters ahead of our #14 pick.
 
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