Keith Law Braves Views

[thethe]

Law saying he has fringe power, speed, and defense isn't a shock to me. I've read similar things along the way.

If his defense isn't up to snuff, then what is his value? I fricking love good defenders, so maybe I'm too biased. I don't think he has a skill or two that can compensate for his deficiencies. Not yet, anyway.

I also hope that Wren isn't comparing anyone to Uggla. Just because we have a player that can potentially create more value than him, it doesn't say too much.

We'll see. I'm no expert or evaluator of talent, just some guy.

I'm the furthest thing from an expert as it gets. I haven't seen LaStella defensively at all but I can't imagine he can be worse than Uggla but what I do believe is that his bat is going to translate. He does not have homerun power but that is OK. If he turns into a guy that is a 280/350/400 guy we should be jumping for joy.

 

[Gary82]

If he turns into a guy that is a 280/350/400 guy we should be jumping for joy.

I can't realistically fathom La Stella reaching those offensive numbers next year, and I am having hard time believing he'll meet that at all.

I am just too skeptical tonight.

 

[Runnin]

Please explain why you don't believe he is a starter for this team?

Not saying you are wrong because obviously there are many who feel the same way. More of just a curiosity.

Why do you think he is a starter when you haven't seen him? I think bringing up a rookie who isn't known as a defensive whiz to man middle infield position is probably more of a gamble than bringing back Uggla.

 

[Knucksie]

Why do you think he is a starter when you haven't seen him?

Because half the board is buzzing over him.

 

[stpeteirish]

Law saying he has fringe power, speed, and defense isn't a shock to me. I've read similar things along the way.

If his defense isn't up to snuff, then what is his value? I fricking love good defenders, so maybe I'm too biased. I don't think he has a skill or two that can compensate for his deficiencies. Not yet, anyway.

I also hope that Wren isn't comparing anyone to Uggla. Just because we have a player that can potentially create more value than him, it doesn't say too much.

We'll see. I'm no expert or evaluator of talent, just some guy.

Depends on how bad his defense is. The speed and power lacking means little; we have plenty of that. Sticking a .300 hitter in our lineup would be just what the Dr ordered. But you can't have a bad defender at 2b,. the ball will find him (see Conrad, Brooks). Mediocore would be OK, no worse than what we've been seeing with Uggla and EJ.

 

[clvclv]

The problems I have with Law and others who criticize our drafts is that they put ENTIRELY too much emphasis on who you've taken in the First Round - particularly when you're drafting in the 25-30 range. There's seldom ever been the kind of talent available that late that can be fast-tracked. As someone else mentioned, the organization's done an absolute bangup job in later rounds.

Everyone keeps screaming about how good Friedman and Tampa have been, but they're only right about that to a point. They - as well as Washington - were immensely successful with their First Round selections when they were in the top 5 picks several years in a row, but their system-wide talent level has dropped significantly now that they're not choosing from "can't miss" kids every year.

You want to see a genius? Watch Houston develop over the next three years with the huge influx of top flight talent to go with all the diamonds in the rough Luhnow finds. He built the best system in baseball in St. Louis doing exactly what Wren's done - finding potential MLB talent with EVERY pick, not just First Rounders.

 

[Braves1976]

I've always been of the opinion that Wren gets off too easily when it comes to criticism only to be politely shouted down by a lot of folks on here who would rather lay the blame on Fredi. Wren has done well around the edges, but his primary free agent signings have been disastrous, especially in view of the claim that there is a tight budget.

I cannot speak for others here, but if you recall I've agreed with most of your points about Wren. While I am certainly among those that have blamed Fredi too. Personally, my view is that Wren and Fredi haven't been a good combination overall. They both deserve a share of the blame IMO.

 

[Metaphysicist]

I really don't get what it is. The Braves prospects are being severely underrated at this time after about a decade of being vastly overrated. To me its even more comical when Wrens drafting record (post Clark) is criticized. Sure, there aren't any superstars (although I believe Simmons will be ridiculously valueable) but there have been a lot of major leaguers drafted and excellent prospects from 2010-2012.

I don't see what's not to get about why the Law's of the world consistently hate the Braves' drafts: the Braves have drafted a LOT of seemingly low ceiling college bats in the top 10 rounds during the post-Clark years. None of those guys have done jack diddly, though maybe LaStella or Terdo can reverse that trend (who knows).

The Braves still have a great scouting department, but they have become very reliant on their scouts working miracles, while punting a lot of the higher value draft slots. And it shows in our overall minor league depth. Where are the bats? Since the banner Heyward/Freddie year of 2007, here are the legit MLB quality hitters we've drafted:

Simmons

Gattis

That's it. And both of those guys, in my opinion, are pretty unique and not emblematic of our overarching draft strategy. A testament to our scouts, yes, but not a testament to our strategy of blah 4 year college bats. Maybe LaStella and Terdo will get there, but are they going to be more than role players? I dunno, but overall we have not done a good job with the hitters.

 

[Runnin]

I've always been of the opinion that Wren gets off too easily when it comes to criticism only to be politely shouted down by a lot of folks on here who would rather lay the blame on Fredi. Wren has done well around the edges, but his primary free agent signings have been disastrous, especially in view of the claim that there is a tight budget.

This is true but he's had some really bad luck with under-performing players - Kawakami, Lowe and BJ.

 

[Dalyn]

This is true but he's had some really bad luck with under-performing players - Kawakami, Lowe and BJ.

But he overpaid two of them even if they had performed at their best. He is awful at that part of the job.

 

[Runnin]

But he overpaid two of them even if they had performed at their best. He is awful at that part of the job.

True, but the amount of salary to any one player is meaningless these days. Practically every free agent is "overpaid". You have to overpay them to get them.

 

[50PoundHead]

This is true but he's had some really bad luck with under-performing players - Kawakami, Lowe and BJ.

Dalyn said what I was going to say. You can't budget for underperformance, but those guys were all "stretches." At least Lowe took the ball every fifth day, but there's not much that can be said about the other two. If you have to pay $15 M per year to get Upton, than only give him three years. If it takes more years, let him go somewhere else. We could have tided over with either Span or Revere at a reasonable cost.

 

[Tapate50]

I don't see what's not to get about why the Law's of the world consistently hate the Braves' drafts: the Braves have drafted a LOT of seemingly low ceiling college bats in the top 10 rounds during the post-Clark years. None of those guys have done jack diddly, though maybe LaStella or Terdo can reverse that trend (who knows).

The Braves still have a great scouting department, but they have become very reliant on their scouts working miracles, while punting a lot of the higher value draft slots. And it shows in our overall minor league depth. Where are the bats? Since the banner Heyward/Freddie year of 2007, here are the legit MLB quality hitters we've drafted:

Simmons
Gattis

That's it. And both of those guys, in my opinion, are pretty unique and not emblematic of our overarching draft strategy. A testament to our scouts, yes, but not a testament to our strategy of blah 4 year college bats. Maybe LaStella and Terdo will get there, but are they going to be more than role players? I dunno, but overall we have not done a good job with the hitters.

Very well worded summation. I can see the criticism being valid, but we have been able to get away with it to this point.

 

[zitothebrave]

Dalyn said what I was going to say. You can't budget for underperformance, but those guys were all "stretches." At least Lowe took the ball every fifth day, but there's not much that can be said about the other two. If you have to pay $15 M per year to get Upton, than only give him three years. If it takes more years, let him go somewhere else. We could have tided over with either Span or Revere at a reasonable cost.

I think that's a little harsh 50. No one expected the Twinkies to trade both Revere and Span and that was what changed the CF market. By most accounts there were 3 teams minimum looking for a CF. The Braves, Nats, and Phillies, and several teams in the mix. Wren did jump the gun to get BJ, but he didn't want to wind up in the same situation he was in with Lowe where he had to over pay.

Of course in the end both Revere and Span were traded jacking up the supply which would have likely led to us getting Bourn or Bossman for cheap. But you can't predict those things and I don't blame him for that.

For Lowe we basically wasted 15M. To get him over the Mets we needed to get him and if Wren didn't get someone he probably would have been canned.

Kawakami the dumb thing about him was getting him after we had already gotten Vazquez fully knowing we had guys like Medlen and Hanson as young guys and we also had Hudson at some point comign back from Tommy John. That was a bad offseason for Wren because he overreacted to a need. Which I hope he doesn't do this year by doing something like trade for Brandon Phillips.

 

[nsacpi]

I don't see what's not to get about why the Law's of the world consistently hate the Braves' drafts: the Braves have drafted a LOT of seemingly low ceiling college bats in the top 10 rounds during the post-Clark years. None of those guys have done jack diddly, though maybe LaStella or Terdo can reverse that trend (who knows).

The Braves still have a great scouting department, but they have become very reliant on their scouts working miracles, while punting a lot of the higher value draft slots. And it shows in our overall minor league depth. Where are the bats? Since the banner Heyward/Freddie year of 2007, here are the legit MLB quality hitters we've drafted:

Simmons
Gattis

That's it. And both of those guys, in my opinion, are pretty unique and not emblematic of our overarching draft strategy. A testament to our scouts, yes, but not a testament to our strategy of blah 4 year college bats. Maybe LaStella and Terdo will get there, but are they going to be more than role players? I dunno, but overall we have not done a good job with the hitters.

College bats drafted in the first ten rounds in the post Clark era:

Cunningham (2010, 2nd round)
Simmons (2010, 2)
Leonard (2010, 3)
Gosselin (2010, 5)
Terdoslavich (2010, 6)
Rohm (2010, 9)
Ahmed (2011, 2)
Kubitza (2011, 3)
DeSantiago (2011, 5)
La Stella (2011, 8)
Larsson (2011, 9)
Robbins (2011, 10)
Brown (2012, 5)
Elander (2012, 6)
Dodig (2012, 10)
Caratini (2013, 2)
Reynolds (2013, 5)
Wren (2013, 8)

I think to evaluate whether the results have been good or not, you need some sort of benchmark. Here is what I would offer in the way of benchmarks. About 60% of second rounders make it to the majors. About 40% of third rounders make it. About 20% of those taken in rounds 4-10 make it. Those are industry averages.

 

[gilesfan]

I think what he was getting at is they are all low ceiling guys. If you want to benchmark chances of getting to the majors, it will look more favorable than how many 4 year college bats got to the majors and made any type of impact.

 

[nsacpi]

I think what he was getting at is they are all low ceiling guys. If you want to benchmark chances of getting to the majors, it will look more favorable than how many 4 year college bats got to the majors and made any type of impact.

That's another aspect. If you think of the distribution of position players in the majors, a typical team will have 13 on their roster. But over a full season you get injuries, call up, etc. So maybe 20-25 position players. Of those 8 are the starters. So about a third of major league position players are starters. About a third subs. And about a third are cup of coffee types.

Then you might want to break the starters down a little bit more, between those who are below average at their position, above average, All-Stars, MVP contenders, etc.

 

[nsacpi]

So let's look at what the post-Clark drafts have yielded in terms of the college bats taken in the first ten rounds.

Let's start with the second rounders: Cunningham, Simmons, Ahmed, Caratini.

Statistically speaking, an "average" outcome would be three of the four making the majors, one a starter, one a backup, one a scrub. So far Simmons has made it as a regular and Cunningham for a cup of coffee. Caratini was just ranked the #3 prospect in the Appalachian League. He is only 19 and several levels away from the majors. But I think the most likely outcome is for him to be a starting major league player. Ahmed had a rough season in AA, but he was only 22 this past season. I think he'll make it to the majors, either as a backup or cup of coffee type. So if you look at the group of second rounds, the yield at the moment looks like it will be above average, both in terms of the number making it to the majors and the number making it as regulars. Of course, some projection is involved here because of the ages of the players.

Next let's look at the third rounders: Leonard and Kubitza. I don't think either projects as a regular. My guess is Leonard will be a cup of coffee type and Kubitza will have a more substantial major league career as a backup. When you consider that less than half of third rounders make the majors, that's not bad.

Now let's look at the group taken in rounds 4-10: Gosselin, Terdoslavich, Rohm, DeSantiago, La Stella, Larsson, Robbins, Brown, Elander, Dodig, Reynolds, Wren. Of those eleven, two have made it to the majors (Gosselin and Terdoslavich). I would guess La Stella and Elander will also make it. So 4 out of 11. This is pretty good when you consider that the industry average is about 20% for those rounds. Of those four, my guess is Gosselin is a cup of coffee guys, Elander a back up. La Stella and Terdoslavich both have a shot of being regulars. Let's split the difference and say one of them becomes a regular, while the other is a backup. That scenario would have to be considered a pretty good yield for this group of eleven players.

The yield measured in terms of major league players from this entire group is above average (9 or 10 major leaguers from this group versus 6 or 7 if we had performed at league average). If one of Caratini/La Stella/Terdoslavich also becomes a regular, the overall outcome would also have to be considered above average.

 

[Enscheff]

There isn't really anything to break down...the Braves have sucked at drafting position players, period.

Simmons was actually drafted to pitch, so it is actually a bit of a stretch to claim him as a drafted position player. Gattis is a unique story, and is not really indicative of how the Braves draft in general.

So basically...the system sucks. Might as well just draft strictly pitchers and use minor league FAs to fill in the rest of the rosters. It wouldn't result in any less position players making an impact at the MLB level.

 

[gilesfan]

How on earth can you say the most likely outcome for a guy in rookie ball is to be a major league starter?