Keith Law Braves Views

nsacpi said:
And yet arguably five of our current top 10 prospects are international signings (Peraza, Cabrera, Bethancourt, Salcedo, Victor Reyes).
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But what is the ceiling on those guys? I think that's the point when people talk about the overall quality of the farm system suffering a bit. Those are our 10 best prospects, but how do they stack up against other teams' 10 best? There's no question that our standing as a minor league system has dropped. Perhaps not as far as some analysts say, but we're not the Top 5 system that we pretty much were for a couple of decades. Some of that is due to the "graduation rate" of the system, but part of it is due to the guys we have in the pipeline.

From what I've read and seen, Oberholtzer is a big LHP who can get it up there in the low-90s. That's not Kimbrel territory, but it's still plus in my book (especially from an LHP). He's the only guy from the Bourn deal who may haunt us down the road (but I make the deal every time). Clemens may develop into a solid relief pitcher, but his secondary stuff appears to leave something to be desired.

Of the tools guys you mention, I think Lien is probably the best bet. Sanchez seemed to improve as the season went on in the GCL, but he was repeating there. I can't figure out the Blake Brown pick for the life of me (Poor contact at the college level; how does that get better in the pros?). But I agree you have to roll the dice on these guys. As per Drury, I was surprised he didn't rank a bit higher in BA's Midwest League prospect rankings. He was repeating Low-A (although the Midwest League is considered a step up from the SAL for some reason), so I suppose that tempers enthusiasm. He's become less Francoeurish, so that's a positive sign for him.
 
I have a guess (and it entirely a guess) about the shifts that have occurred in the DeMacio drafts. The college heavy 2010 and 2011 drafts have had the effect of stocking the upper level of our farm system. Whether by design or not these players are mainly complementary players for the stars that came out of prior drafts or trades (Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, Beachy, Medlen, Minor, Justin Upton). It isn't a bad thing to be looking for complementary players in addition to stars. You need a mix.

With the upper level of the farm system somewhat clogged with this group, I think we now have the luxury of rolling the dice more on HS talent. We took a total of 1 HS player in the first ten rounds of the first two DeMacio drafts. But in 2012 we took three and in 2013 we took five. I like this trend both from the perspective of going for more high upside players and also from the perspective that our farm system is currently set up in a way that it makes sense to bring in a younger group of new players who can marinate for two or three years in the rookie leagues if necessary. For me the next step is to take more HS players in the later rounds (after the tenth round). We only signed two of those from the 2012 draft (Lien and Sanchez) and just one in 2013 (Grosser). Picks in the later rounds are lottery tickets. Once in a while you get a Gattis or a Drury. But if other teams can find HS gems in those rounds we should be casting our net widely as well and selecting a mix of HS and college players in those rounds too, rather than going almost exclusively with college players as we have been doing.
 
Tapate50 said:
How many of those guys would be on a top 10 in a well stocked system? 1? 2?
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Possibly none. Peraza and Cabrera have pretty good upside imo but are so far from being ready that you have to be cautious ranking them too highly. I don't think either of those will make the next BA Top 100. But a year from now, maybe.
 
nsacpi said:
I have a guess (and it entirely a guess) about the shifts that have occurred in the DeMacio drafts. The college heavy 2010 and 2011 drafts have had the effect of stocking the upper level of our farm system. Whether by design or not these players are mainly complementary players for the stars that came out of prior drafts or trades (Heyward, Freeman, Kimbrel, Beachy, Medlen, Minor, Justin Upton). It isn't a bad thing to be looking for complementary players in addition to stars. You need a mix.

With the upper level of the farm system somewhat clogged with this group, I think we now have the luxury of rolling the dice more on HS talent. We took a total of 1 HS player in the first ten rounds of the first two DeMacio drafts. But in 2012 we took three and in 2013 we took five. I like this trend both from the perspective of going for more high upside players and also from the perspective that our farm system is currently set up in a way that it makes sense to bring in a younger group of new players who can marinate for two or three years in the rookie leagues if necessary. For me the next step is to take more HS players in the later rounds (after the tenth round). We only signed two of those from the 2012 draft (Lien and Sanchez) and just one in 2013 (Grosser). Picks in the later rounds are lottery tickets. Once in a while you get a Gattis or a Drury. But if other teams can find HS gems in those rounds we should be casting our net widely as well and selecting a mix of HS and college players in those rounds too, rather than going almost exclusively with college players as we have been doing.
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I will be curious to watch all teams' behaviors in terms of drafting "tough" signs given the new draft bonus limits. I think it's a work in progress for everyone, but I expect we will see more of what you are saying. The only guy we were truly interested in who didn't sign from the 2013 draft was Kuresa (and he doesn't really fit the category being discussed because he's a college player) and my guess is Kuresa sees himself as a much higher pick come 2014. He was highly-ranked out of high school but hasn't put it together at the college level yet.
 
Pat Borders' son, who we took out of HS in the 11th round in 2012, is also an example of the kind of "tough" signs that are coming into play with the new bonus limits. I think we wanted him pretty badly but didn't have enough money left to convince him to pass up college.
 
nsacpi said:
Pat Borders' son, who we took out of HS in the 11th round in 2012, is also an example of the kind of "tough" signs that are coming into play with the new bonus limits. I think we wanted him pretty badly but didn't have enough money left to convince him to pass up college.
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Right. I'm sure every team has at least a couple of these. It used to be those guys would be drafted past the 20th round and some would sign for some astronomical amount (Braves couldn't get astronomical enough for Rendon way back when). Red Sox used to do that with some regularity.

PS--Did some research on the set of highly-ranked high school kids the Braves drafted in 2012 between the 30th and 40th rounds. The guys had mixed success, but college baseball is likely tougher than rookie league baseball, so I don't expect eye-popping stats from a lot of freshman. #32 RHP Adam Grantham pitched in 17 games (1-0, 6.48) for Arkansas State; #33 OF Sam Gillikin (very highly-ranked) had a rough year at Auburn (.159/.182/.220), but played better this past summer in the Cape Cod League; #34 OF Ben Johnson had a nice freshman year at the University of Texas (.220/.317/.407) and is slated to be the starting LF for the Longhorns this coming season; #35 INF Matt Creech hit .235/.257/.294 at the University of North Carolina-Charlotte; #36 OF Braden Bishop started 29 games in CF for the University of Washington and hit .270/.304/.351. Bishop was also named MVP in UW's fall intersquad tournament; #37 OF Gio Brusa hit .256/.317/.339 for the University of the Pacific. The switch-hitting Brusa also won the HR Derby at this year's Alaska Summer League all-star game; #38 RHP/OF Sean McLaughlin had a great freshman season on the mound for the Georgia Bulldogs, going 5-6 with a 3.28 ERA. 49 Ks and 23 BBs in 74 IP with a .256 BAA. McLaughlin hit .196/.214/.262 in 56 ABs; #39 Cullen O'Dwyer only had 11 ABs with 1 hit at Arizona State University, and #40 RHP Jimmy Herget had the best freshman season of all, going 6-2 with a 1.72 ERA for the University of South Florida. Herget had a sub-1.00 WHIP, a .193 BAA, and struck out 60 in 94 IP. 11th round pick Levi Borders--who nsacpi mentioned--hit .248/.316/.328 for the same University of South Florida team.

I'm not posting this to suggest the Braves should have made a more concerted effort to sign any of these guys. Most were classified as very difficult guys to sign. In an article I found on Herget, the Braves wanted to draft him a lot earlier, but Herget told them "See you in three years" when the scout called and expressed interest on draft day. I'm just saying we don't know about any of these guys and their development arcs are probably all over the place (some may have already topped out). It will be fun to see how they develop. Maybe we shed a figurative tear when one of them turns out to really be something at the big league level.
 
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