Keith Law's Midseason Top 50 Update

[gilesfan]

He was really high. I think he was number 1 on some boards. But his draft status had something to do with that.

He was drafted mid first round; what do you mean?

Giolito reminds me a lot of a supped up Davies. Just something that fell apart when he got up to the upper levels. It's part of the problem when ranking guys lower than AA. I've said I would take Lopez over Gio and stand by that right now. I think worst case that Lopez is a stud reliever. If Gio can figure out consistent mechanics, maybe he makes a jump, but right now, he's in his own head.

 

[gilesfan]

I still think the Braves system is better. Moncada and Kopech haven't exactly torn it up since being dealt to them (Kopech SO numbers are insane, but the guy has 53 walks in 78 IP). Moncada is still striking out quite a bit. Seems their rankings are still mostly based on their ceilings and not so much on their performance.

Ceilings are what prospects should be ranked on. Finding utility players and 5th starters have some value, but the high ceiling players make the difference.

 

[nsacpi]

Ceilings are what prospects should be ranked on. Finding utility players and 5th starters have some value, but the high ceiling players make the difference.

So would Tom Glavine be a reasonable ceiling for a left handing starting pitching prospect who didn't throw particularly hard but had good control.

 

[Orphan Black]

Ceilings are what prospects should be ranked on. Finding utility players and 5th starters have some value, but the high ceiling players make the difference.

Ceiling should only be part of it. If you only rank based on ceilings you're an idiot.

 

[Preacher]

Ceilings are what prospects should be ranked on. Finding utility players and 5th starters have some value, but the high ceiling players make the difference.

It's silly to only focus on one or the other. Ceiling and floor are both very important.

There's a lot of value in developing guys that don't have TOR ceiling but can be 3-5 type guys in the rotation.

 

[Super]

does anyone have the full list?

 

[bravesguy]

http://www.espn.com/blog/keith-law/insider/post?id=7372

Acuna 9

Allard 26

Albies 32

Wright 35

Gohara 39

Anderson 41

Soroka 49

Just paused to think about the minor pitching rotations next year and it is going to be supremely exciting and likely the talk of baseball.

AAA - Allard, Soroka, Gohara, (w/ maybe Sims, Fried, other filler)

AA - Wright, Wilson, Wentz, Touki

A+ - Anderson, Sanchez, Rangel, Davidson

A - Mueller, De La Cruz, ???

I think we need to wait until 2019 to sell off pitching. Sell from MLB ...NOT minors. The value is much higher then. Look at what Fulmer is looking to get.

 

[Krgrecw]

Ceilings are what prospects should be ranked on. Finding utility players and 5th starters have some value, but the high ceiling players make the difference.

100%. You win with stars. You don't win with role players orange rotation full of back end staters.

 

[50PoundHead]

Ceilings are what prospects should be ranked on. Finding utility players and 5th starters have some value, but the high ceiling players make the difference.

I generally agree, but there is always the tools v. application debate that goes into the determination of ceiling which throws a lot of fans off. By all accounts, Ray Patrick Didder is one of the two or three most dynamic athletes in the Braves' system, but those physical gifts are not translating into results. I think a lot of fans (and scouts) can be seduced by athletic prowess, which, in truth, is pretty important. On the other hand, there are folks who run to the stat sheet and think the guy leading the Midwest League in hitting should be in Keith Law's Top 50.

Every prospect has what I call a development arc. When judging prospects, you hope that arc lands well into the major league level. It requires adjustments at every level and using Didder as an example again, his arc appears to be landing short of the majors because of his inability to make hitting adjustments in High A. I'm not picking on Didder. One sees this all the time throughout baseball.

nsacpi, I'm old enough to remember when Glavine was coming up through the minors and scouts loved him even with his lack of eye-popping stuff. I was always frustrated as a fan because he consistently landed behind David West on most prospect rankings (and the two were often at the same level of competition) because of West's size and raw stuff. But Glavine was heralded, largely because of his competitive nature and intellect. People tend to forget about Glavine's athletic ability. He was a second-round draft pick of the Los Angeles Kings in addition to being a second-round pick of the Braves.

 

[Chico]

Just paused to think about the minor pitching rotations next year and it is going to be supremely exciting and likely the talk of baseball.

AAA - Allard, Soroka, Gohara, (w/ maybe Sims, Fried, other filler)
AA - Wright, Wilson, Wentz, Touki
A+ - Anderson, Sanchez, Rangel, Davidson
A - Mueller, De La Cruz, ???

I think we need to wait until 2019 to sell off pitching. Sell from MLB ...NOT minors. The value is much higher then. Look at what Fulmer is looking to get.

With Lewallyn in Florida I don't think anyone skips High A. That seems to be the finishing school. You may not stay long, but you're making a pit stop.

Also, I think we'll have a vet or two in the AAA rotation to be the one who is called up for a spot start and traded or released by May or June.

 

[nsacpi]

I generally agree, but there is always the tools v. application debate that goes into the determination of ceiling which throws a lot of fans off. By all accounts, Ray Patrick Didder is one of the two or three most dynamic athletes in the Braves' system, but those physical gifts are not translating into results. I think a lot of fans (and scouts) can be seduced by athletic prowess, which, in truth, is pretty important. On the other hand, there are folks who run to the stat sheet and think the guy leading the Midwest League in hitting should be in Keith Law's Top 50.

Every prospect has what I call a development arc. When judging prospects, you hope that arc lands well into the major league level. It requires adjustments at every level and using Didder as an example again, his arc appears to be landing short of the majors because of his inability to make hitting adjustments in High A. I'm not picking on Didder. One sees this all the time throughout baseball.

nsacpi, I'm old enough to remember when Glavine was coming up through the minors and scouts loved him even with his lack of eye-popping stuff. I was always frustrated as a fan because he consistently landed behind David West on most prospect rankings (and the two were often at the same level of competition) because of West's size and raw stuff. But Glavine was heralded, largely because of his competitive nature and intellect. People tend to forget about Glavine's athletic ability. He was a second-round draft pick of the Los Angeles Kings in addition to being a second-round pick of the Braves.

I was also following the Braves system when Glavine was coming up. I have a vague memory he was in the top 10, maybe the top 5 of BA's International League list his last year in the minors. But he was never as highly heralded as Mercker or Avery, partly because those two threw a lot harder. My point is that Glavine was the kind of prospect who would be labeled high floor low ceiling. What would be the appropriate "ceiling" for a prospect with his profile.

 

[thethe]

Glavine was an anomoly. I'm obviously someone who leans towards the scouting side of the Scout vs. Saber argument while using a healthy amount of analysis as well.

I'm just not sure how many more Glavines we are going to see today. He benefited a lot from a less scrutinized strike zone but also played at a time when PED's were rampant.

 

[nsacpi]

Glavine was an anomoly. I'm obviously someone who leans towards the scouting side of the Scout vs. Saber argument while using a healthy amount of analysis as well.

I'm just not sure how many more Glavines we are going to see today. He benefited a lot from a less scrutinized strike zone but also played at a time when PED's were rampant.

That still leaves the question of what is the appropriate ceiling rating for a prospect with a similar profile.

 

[thethe]

That still leaves the question of what is the appropriate ceiling rating for a prospect with a similar profile.

Its difficult to say. As I watch guys like Newcomb/Teheran struggle while being able to throw int he low to mid 90's I think the changeup is the most undervalued pitch in baseball.

When considering his lack of velocity as well as his plus plus changeup I'd probably bump Glavine up to a #2 ceiling. Guy who could be a 4 WAR pitcher consistently.

 

[Super]

full list, in case anyone hasn;t seen:

Amed Rosario, SS, New York Mets
Gleyber Torres, SS, New York Yankees
Rafael Devers, 3B, Boston Red Sox
Victor Robles, OF, Washington Nationals
Eloy Jimenez, OF, Chicago Cubs
Francisco Mejia, C, Cleveland Indians
Michael Kopech, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Vladimir Guerrero Jr., 3B, Toronto Blue Jays
Ronald Acuna, OF, Atlanta Braves
Mitch Keller, RHP, Pittsburgh Pirates
Walker Buehler, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Alex Verdugo, OF, Los Angeles Dodgers
Yoan Moncada, 2B, Chicago White Sox
Nick Senzel, 3B, Cincinnati Reds
Fernando Tatis Jr., SS, San Diego Padres
Kyle Tucker, OF, Houston Astros
Lucas Giolito, RHP, Chicago White Sox
Brendan Rodgers, SS, Colorado Rockies
Cal Quantrill, RHP, San Diego Padres
Jason Groome, LHP, Boston Red Sox
Hunter Greene, RHP, Cincinnati Reds
Brent Honeywell, RHP, Tampa Bay Rays
Dom Smith, 1B, New York Mets
Leody Taveras, OF, Texas Rangers
Willy Adames, SS, Tampa Bay Rays
Kolby Allard, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Carson Kelly, C, St. Louis Cardinals
Yadier Alvarez, RHP, Los Angeles Dodgers
Lewis Brinson, CF, Milwaukee Brewers
Nick Gordon, SS, Minnesota Twins
Scott Kingery, 2B, Philadelphia Phillies
Ozhaino Albies, SS/2B, Atlanta Braves
Chance Sisco, C, Baltimore Orioles
Bo Bichette, SS, Toronto Blue Jays
Kyle Wright, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Forrest Whitley, RHP, Houston Astros
Brendan McKay, LHP/1B, Tampa Bay Rays
Corbin Burnes, RHP, Milwaukee Brewers
Luiz Gohara, LHP, Atlanta Braves
Triston McKenzie, RHP, Cleveland Indians
Ian Anderson, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Juan Soto, OF, Washington Nationals
Franklin Perez, RHP, Houston Astros
Kevin Newman, SS, Pittsburgh Pirates
MacKenzie Gore, LHP, San Diego Padres
Yordan Alvarez, 1B, Houston Astros
Ryan McMahon, 1B/3B, Colorado Rockies
Mickey Moniak, OF, Philadelphia Phillies
Mike Soroka, RHP, Atlanta Braves
Jack Flaherty, RHP, St. Louis Cardinals

 

[smootness]

Just paused to think about the minor pitching rotations next year and it is going to be supremely exciting and likely the talk of baseball.

AAA - Allard, Soroka, Gohara, (w/ maybe Sims, Fried, other filler)
AA - Wright, Wilson, Wentz, Touki
A+ - Anderson, Sanchez, Rangel, Davidson
A - Mueller, De La Cruz, ???

I think we need to wait until 2019 to sell off pitching. Sell from MLB ...NOT minors. The value is much higher then. Look at what Fulmer is looking to get.

Del Rosario will be in that Rome rotation.

 

[bravesguy]

With Lewallyn in Florida I don't think anyone skips High A. That seems to be the finishing school. You may not stay long, but you're making a pit stop.

Also, I think we'll have a vet or two in the AAA rotation to be the one who is called up for a spot start and traded or released by May or June.

I agree that vets may fill out the rotations. I also think we will sign another vet for the MLB rotation this offseason if we can't get a SP in trade, but what is exciting is that if next Sept we have 2-3 guys who should be ready for a rotation spot. Then we have the luxury of trading MLB level talent to restock the lower minors for a future wave.

Imagine our rotation next year is Wainwright (any FA vet)/Teheran/Folty/Newcomb/Dickey....then 2 of Allard/Soroka/Gohara appear ready in August/September. We could trade 2 guys (Dickey & Teheran) to get 2-4 low A, top 100 prospects. Then have a 2019 rotation of Vet/Folty/Newcomb/Allard/Soroka and in Sept 2 of Gohara/Wentz/Wilson/Anderson appear ready and we could trade 2 guys (Vet & Folty) to get 2-4 low A, top 100 prospects....and so on...and so on...

The talk about Fulmer's trade value really excites me looking at the Braves the other direction for years to come.

 

[gilesfan]

I generally agree, but there is always the tools v. application debate that goes into the determination of ceiling which throws a lot of fans off. By all accounts, Ray Patrick Didder is one of the two or three most dynamic athletes in the Braves' system, but those physical gifts are not translating into results. I think a lot of fans (and scouts) can be seduced by athletic prowess, which, in truth, is pretty important. On the other hand, there are folks who run to the stat sheet and think the guy leading the Midwest League in hitting should be in Keith Law's Top 50.

Every prospect has what I call a development arc. When judging prospects, you hope that arc lands well into the major league level. It requires adjustments at every level and using Didder as an example again, his arc appears to be landing short of the majors because of his inability to make hitting adjustments in High A. I'm not picking on Didder. One sees this all the time throughout baseball.

nsacpi, I'm old enough to remember when Glavine was coming up through the minors and scouts loved him even with his lack of eye-popping stuff. I was always frustrated as a fan because he consistently landed behind David West on most prospect rankings (and the two were often at the same level of competition) because of West's size and raw stuff. But Glavine was heralded, largely because of his competitive nature and intellect. People tend to forget about Glavine's athletic ability. He was a second-round draft pick of the Los Angeles Kings in addition to being a second-round pick of the Braves.

Im talking about high upside talent vs. averagish talent. In this thought process, the high upside guys have some production to back their high rankings. I'm not talking about George Lombard.

 

[Enscheff]

I agree that vets may fill out the rotations. I also think we will sign another vet for the MLB rotation this offseason if we can't get a SP in trade, but what is exciting is that if next Sept we have 2-3 guys who should be ready for a rotation spot. Then we have the luxury of trading MLB level talent to restock the lower minors for a future wave.

Imagine our rotation next year is Wainwright (any FA vet)/Teheran/Folty/Newcomb/Dickey....then 2 of Allard/Soroka/Gohara appear ready in August/September. We could trade 2 guys (Dickey & Teheran) to get 2-4 low A, top 100 prospects. Then have a 2019 rotation of Vet/Folty/Newcomb/Allard/Soroka and in Sept 2 of Gohara/Wentz/Wilson/Anderson appear ready and we could trade 2 guys (Vet & Folty) to get 2-4 low A, top 100 prospects....and so on...and so on...

The talk about Fulmer's trade value really excites me looking at the Braves the other direction for years to come.

Fulmer is super valuable because he has 5 years of control remaining after this season. He has 5 years of control remaining because the Tigers properly managed his service time, rather than calling him up early.

The Braves do not maximize player value like that.

Most importantly, the Braves do not sell pitchers with 5 years of control, as evidenced by holding onto Teheran trough the rebuild and wasting the bulk of his value.

Watch what the A's get in return for Gray. He has 2+ years of control left. That is the most likely return we can hope the Braves get by trading away their good pitchers in future years.

Even that is wishful thinking, unfortunately. The Braves have never had the foresight to sell high on pitchers. They always ride them out and let their value plummet before unloading them for little to no return.

Hopefully that changes...hopefully.

 

[Carp]

Fulmer is super valuable because he has 5 years of control remaining after this season. He has 5 years of control remaining because the Tigers properly managed his service time, rather than calling him up early.

The Braves do not maximize player value like that.

Most importantly, the Braves do not sell pitchers with 5 years of control, as evidenced by holding onto Teheran trough the rebuild and wasting the bulk of his value.

Watch what the A's get in return for Gray. He has 2+ years of control left. That is the most likely return we can hope the Braves get by trading away their good pitchers in future years.

Even that is wishful thinking, unfortunately. The Braves have never had the foresight to sell high on pitchers. They always ride them out and let their value plummet before unloading them for little to no return.

Hopefully that changes...hopefully.

Other than JT and I guess Wood, what other pitchers have they failed to sell at their highest point? There was a different GM in charge for Hanson, JJ, and the like. And we were in contention those years as well. Mid market teams competing for a playoff spot generally don't trade away good, young, controllable pitching.