Kemp and the Quest for 1 bWAR

thewupk said:
I would agree with that. The only thing I will say is adjectives like 'suck', 'good', 'bad' etc are all subjective. A player you might consider good I might say is above average. With that being said Kemp has proven to not even be an average player statistically the past few seasons. Right now he is playing at a level that is better than average but of course there is no guarantee that continues through the rest of the season.
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I didn't watch Kemp when he was with LA or SD. Maybe injuries or bad conditioning impacted his game. Maybe it was a degredaton of skills. I'm not sure. I don't think you could only look at his status sheet and make the determination. I'd be more comfor table with an approach of evaluating the Statline then watch film with the premise of figuring out why he was bad. Do you see the distinction I'm making here?
 
thethe said:
I didn't watch Kemp when he was with LA or SD. Maybe injuries or bad conditioning impacted his game. Maybe it was a degredaton of skills. I'm not sure. I don't think you could only look at his status sheet and make the determination. I'd be more comfor table with an approach of evaluating the Statline then watch film with the premise of figuring out why he was bad. Do you see the distinction I'm making here?
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You mean to figure out why his defense is so poor? Like what StatCast does?

Still waiting on your qualifications to be considered a superior baseball mind...
 
thewupk said:
I would agree with that. The only thing I will say is adjectives like 'suck', 'good', 'bad' etc are all subjective. A player you might consider good I might say is above average. With that being said Kemp has proven to not even be an average player statistically the past few seasons. Right now he is playing at a level that is better than average but of course there is no guarantee that continues through the rest of the season.
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I think I agree with thethe and you that Matt Kemp is not a below average baseball player this season.

I'd agree with the idea that an injury or regression is likely to chip away at his current numbers, but I think his San Diego baseline is probably worth throwing away at this point.

He seems to be a better player than he performed while there, for whatever reason.

Maybe it was an injury, maybe he lost interest in his career, maybe he was depressed, maybe that stadium sucks. Whatever the case, he's reverted to something more like his younger days since he has been in Atlanta and that's closing in on a year of ABs.

Let me ask this, do you have a link to a tool that lets you sort by WAR by position? I'm curious how he grades out in comparison to other LFs.
 
thethe said:
I didn't watch Kemp when he was with LA or SD. Maybe injuries or bad conditioning impacted his game. Maybe it was a degredaton of skills. I'm not sure. I don't think you could only look at his status sheet and make the determination. I'd be more comfor table with an approach of evaluating the Statline then watch film with the premise of figuring out why he was bad. Do you see the distinction I'm making here?
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Well his defense hasn't really changed from San Diego and late LA years to here. It's still among the worst in the league. Offensively is where all the difference is right now and that is mainly in the BABIP area. He is walking about the same and has a 200+ ISO which he has had regularly the past few years. These are all things we can see statically without the need to look at film. So to me the difference is pretty easy to see. Film has it's place at the big league level but using it to determine if a player is good or not isn't one of them.
 
Southcack77 said:
I think I agree with thethe and you that Matt Kemp is not a below average baseball player this season.

I'd agree with the idea that an injury or regression is likely to chip away at his current numbers, but I think his San Diego baseline is probably worth throwing away at this point.

He seems to be a better player than he performed while there, for whatever reason.

Maybe it was an injury, maybe he lost interest in his career, maybe he was depressed, maybe that stadium sucks. Whatever the case, he's reverted to something more like his younger days since he has been in Atlanta and that's closing in on a year of ABs.

Let me ask this, do you have a link to a tool that lets you sort by WAR by position? I'm curious how he grades out in comparison to other LFs.
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Fangraphs does that easily.

http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=lf&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2017&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0

Baseball Ref doesn't have a way to sort it like that as far as I know.
 
It takes some spreadsheet love to get it, but I came up with a list of LF'ers by bwar. Kemp is pretty much middle of the pack. BTW 13 of the 24 LF'ers on the list have negative dWARS. Tha average WAR is .73 (Compared to .76 for CF, and .97 for RF)

of 24 LF'ers, Kemp is:
13th in WAR
9th in oWAR
21st in dWAR

Of those 24 LF'ers, only 8 have played no other fielding position. Of those 8, Kemp is:
6th in WAR
4th in oWAR
7th in dWAR

5 of those 8 players have negative dWARS. The 3 that don't - Gardner, Upton, and Werth, have primarily played CF or RF in the past.
 
Enscheff said:
When was the last time FG updated their UZR for defensive runs created? I suspect Kemp hasn't been fully docked for his defense, but is up to date in his offensive credit.
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I know it took two weeks to start the year before they got any data from it. Other then that I'm not sure if they have a regular schedule or anything. Matt Adams has no UZR data as a Brave and that trade was made on the 20th. So it's been at least that long.
 
Kemp has a 851 OPS since May 1st. His OPS+ for the year is down to 136 and his bWAR is down to 0.4

He's going to need to pick it back up.
 
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