Let's be real about Newcomb

I think the most telling statistic shown in this thread is that in the last 20 years, there are only a handful of pitchers who meet the criteria.

i.e., Newcomb is being given a leash most pitchers would never get. And the ones who did get it, had trouble eventually finding it.
 
smootness said:
I was using your list in the OP. I was saying that instead of simply setting a lower bound on BB rate, we should set an upper bound as well. If you set that at 5.5, keeping everything else the same, suddenly the only guys on the list are Dotel, Harang, and Blake Stein.

So sweet, he's got a great chance to be a Dotel or Harang, using your original logic.

But in reference to this post, why would you be using career BB rate? Sure, it is very tough to be a good major league SP with a BB rate higher than 3.5-4. But if we're talking about where Newcomb might eventually get, why would you use career BB rate? If it takes him 4 years to fully get his BB rate under 3.5, for example, his career BB rate is still going to be quite a bit higher than that.
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Because I didn't want to calculate their BB/9 minus the 10+ starts used to get them on the list. If Newk ends up being Harang or Dotal, 58 innings of 5.1 BB/9 isn't going to impact his career rate much.

But feel free to calculate that value for every player on the list. It would be an actual contribution to the discussion rather than simply being contrarian just so you can disagree about something because you don't like the fact that Newk is probably not going to be very good.
 
sturg33 said:
I think the most telling statistic shown in this thread is that in the last 20 years, there are only a handful of pitchers who meet the criteria.

i.e., Newcomb is being given a leash most pitchers would never get. And the ones who did get it, had trouble eventually finding it.
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That's one of my main takeaways too...pitchers are rarely allowed to be this wild for this long.
 
Enscheff said:
That's one of my main takeaways too...pitchers are rarely allowed to be this wild for this long.
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If you are averaging 5 walks per nine innings, there are going to be stretches when it is more like 7 or 8 walks per innings. That's when pitchers of that type get demoted from the rotation.

Let's remember that Newcomb had a low walk rate his first few starts. But he made up for that by having a stretch where he walked 24 in 28 innings.
 
msstate7 said:
Yep.

Also here's randy johnson's first 4 years starting...

'89 -- k/9 = 7.28, bb/9 = 5.38, BAA = .239

'90 -- k/9 = 7.95, bb/9 = 4.92, BAA = .212

'91 -- k9 = 10.19, bb9 = 6.79, BAA = .208

'92 -- k9 = 10.31, bb9 = 6.16, BAA = .203

Newcomb is a mix of Koufax and Johnson #GOAT

Seriously though, I bet the mariners are glad they were patient w/Johnson
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I thought of Johnson as well. Mark Langston (who went from Montreal to Seattle for Randy Johnson and others) could be another comp. Newcomb's walk rate has him bucking some fairly hefty odds, but he has the stuff that warrants expanded opportunities.
 
Enscheff said:
Because I didn't want to calculate their BB/9 minus the 10+ starts used to get them on the list. If Newk ends up being Harang or Dotal, 58 innings of 5.1 BB/9 isn't going to impact his career rate much.

But feel free to calculate that value for every player on the list. It would be an actual contribution to the discussion rather than simply being contrarian just so you can disagree about something because you don't like the fact that Newk is probably not going to be very good.
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I'm not just talking about removing their first year. Come on, man. I'm saying that for a pitcher who starts his career with a BB rate of over 5, it's going to be very difficult to get his career BB rate to a level under 4. Because I'm assuming these things happen gradually, though for some (Harang), there is an immediate drop. But if there is a gradual improving of BB rate, even if they peak at around 3.5, their career rate will still be quite a bit higher than that because of where it started.

It just doesn't seem to give a great idea of where they might end up. I will try to find the peak BB rate for each guy later.
 
sturg33 said:
I think the most telling statistic shown in this thread is that in the last 20 years, there are only a handful of pitchers who meet the criteria.

i.e., Newcomb is being given a leash most pitchers would never get. And the ones who did get it, had trouble eventually finding it.
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I agree... but further analysis is in order.

There is a reason he is being given such a long leash. It is because he has some other things in his favor that are extremely uncommon in pitchers like him. I won't try to list them as they have been discussed thoroughly in this very thread, but those things provide at least some hope that he might be the exception to the examples you have brought up.

No guarantees of course, but worth a longer than normal leash.
 
Are we upset he's being given more of a chance (and I'd hardly call 11 starts a long chance)?

I think teams should give these guys longer in the rotation.
 
smootness said:
Are we upset he's being given more of a chance (and I'd hardly call 11 starts a long chance)?

I think teams should give these guys longer in the rotation.
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No doubt he should be given every opportunity to establish himself as a starter. I'm good with penciling him as a member of next year's rotation.
 
smootness said:
Are we upset he's being given more of a chance (and I'd hardly call 11 starts a long chance)?

I think teams should give these guys longer in the rotation.
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Given the Braves current position on the win curve, and the lack of viable alternatives, Newk should absolutely be given another 20-30 starts to figure things out.

By the middle of next season he will likely be bumped for Gohara, Soroka or Allard if he is still walking 4+ per 9.

There is at least a 75% chance of that happening, in my estimation. At that point, he should be converted to a BP arm so he can fine tune his 2 plus pitches.

That's where this type of analysis becomes useful. How likely is he to improve control? Answer: Not very. So he needs to be moved to the BP if he doesn't show improvement after 30-40 starts.
 
Meh...he either will figure out the walks or he won't...that's why he's up. His stuff is plenty good. The thing is, he is the type that would be easy to give up on, and them make an adjustment and become a different pitcher. My guess is he will be one of those guys that has good games and bad games...will just depend on how he learns to navigate the bad ones.
 
Enscheff said:
Given the Braves current position on the win curve, and the lack of viable alternatives, Newk should absolutely be given another 20-30 starts to figure things out.

By the middle of next season he will likely be bumped for Gohara, Soroka or Allard if he is still walking 4+ per 9.

There is at least a 75% chance of that happening, in my estimation. At that point, he should be converted to a BP arm so he can fine tune his 2 plus pitches.

That's where this type of analysis becomes useful. How likely is he to improve control? Answer: Not very. So he needs to be moved to the BP if he doesn't show improvement after 30-40 starts.
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Well, my contention is that your 25% figure is only slightly better than being pulled out of thin air, based on how you arrived at it. I'm not saying there's a great chance he greatly improves his control, but he can get himself to a 3 WAR pitcher by only improving it slightly. He definitely doesn't need to lower it past 4 to get there.
 
I also refuse to evaluate any pitcher on this team. At least until we actually get corner outfielders. Unbelievable we have these awful outielders to support our pitching staff.
 
thewupk said:
That's what FIP is for bro
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I know what fip is. I guess you don't think people are human either. So do you expect a pitcher to make better pitches when he is throwing with a guy on second. Or runners at the corners instead of 1 and 2. I am talking about the fact that a pitcher under pressure more than normal will make more mistakes. Especially rookies. Stats are great but they will never quantify the human aspect. Fortunately our young starters are getting crash courses in adversity pitching.
 
smootness said:
Well, my contention is that your 25% figure is only slightly better than being pulled out of thin air, based on how you arrived at it. I'm not saying there's a great chance he greatly improves his control, but he can get himself to a 3 WAR pitcher by only improving it slightly. He definitely doesn't need to lower it past 4 to get there.
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That 25% figure comes from the results of every query I ran after every objection posed by people in this thread.

No matter how the data was sliced, about 25% of guys Newk's age with equally poor command go on to be successful MLB pitchers, split almost equally between being a SP or a high leverage BP arm.

I'm not sure how anyone can logically conclude otherwise. You obviously don't have to allow data to influence your opinion though.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
I know what fip is. I guess you don't think people are human either. So do you expect a pitcher to make better pitches when he is throwing with a guy on second. Or runners at the corners instead of 1 and 2. I am talking about the fact that a pitcher under pressure more than normal will make more mistakes. Especially rookies. Stats are great but they will never quantify the human aspect. Fortunately our young starters are getting crash courses in adversity pitching.
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Or maybe our starters just aren't very good.
 
Enscheff said:
Given the Braves current position on the win curve, and the lack of viable alternatives, Newk should absolutely be given another 20-30 starts to figure things out.

By the middle of next season he will likely be bumped for Gohara, Soroka or Allard if he is still walking 4+ per 9.

There is at least a 75% chance of that happening, in my estimation. At that point, he should be converted to a BP arm so he can fine tune his 2 plus pitches.

That's where this type of analysis becomes useful. How likely is he to improve control? Answer: Not very. So he needs to be moved to the BP if he doesn't show improvement after 30-40 starts.
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Yup. It shows the chance for someone like Newk is very low. If he can't show improved control over a full season worth of starts it's just simply not worth keeping him out there with what we hopefully have coming up behind him.
 
I'm still hopeful about Newk. I do agree with Encheff, though, if he doesn't drop the walk rate after 30-40 more starts, we'll probably all tire of it.

I think it's easy to look at two of the last three starts for Folty, though, and forget his legitimate improvement. Or maybe his value dropped tremendously because of his last start? Just sayin......
 
thewupk said:
Yup. It shows the chance for someone like Newk is very low. If he can't show improved control over a full season worth of starts it's just simply not worth keeping him out there with what we hopefully have coming up behind him.
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Harang is a very interesting comp. He is by far the best case scenario for Newk in these lists. He didn't become a good pitcher until his age 27 season, at which point he was a TOR guy for 3 seasons (age 27-29).

However, while he wasn't awesome until he was 27, he dramatically reduced his BB/9 after his first season from 5+ down to under 3.

If Newk doesn't make a similar improvement (reduce it by ~1.5) by the middle of next year, it should be abundantly clear he isn't a SP.
 
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