Looking Ahead - The 2020 Offseason Thread

Also, I wouldn't say AA hasn't taken any risks. Smith and Ozuna's current contract were quite clearly risky moves. But they also happened to be pretty good market value compared to recent contracts of similar players.
 
Carp said:
Also, I wouldn't say AA hasn't taken any risks. Smith and Ozuna's current contract were quite clearly risky moves. But they also happened to be pretty good market value compared to recent contracts of similar players.
Click to expand...

they're small risks.
even if the contracts don't work out, they're short enough with low enough AAV to not wreck you later.
 
thewupk said:
It's more like 30 million a year when you factor in him being relatively cheap for the next 4 seasons. That's likely right under current market value for what he's expected to produce. The downside is that he really only has a full year worth of PA's at the MLB level. Not the longest track record but barring injury he's a pretty safe bet to be a beast imo. The upside here is that this price is locked in right now. Who knows what the going rate will be in 4 years. Prices somehow keep going up so if he maintains it could be somewhat cheap at the time he was set to be a FA.
Click to expand...

The weird thing to me is this deal almost seems like exactly what he'd sign for as a free agent. Maybe he'd get 50 million more. But it seems crazy to give someone a FA deal when you control them for a long time.

This deal has to be making other teams pissed. Good for the players to win one for once.

The deal doesn't make sense unless you think free agent prices are going to continue to rise and rise significantly, at least for studs. That is a reasonable bet based on history. Still a risky bet given the demographics of the fan base and uncertainty in TV marketplace. Obviously an injury would be really costly.

For next year it will be interesting. If shewmake is what KLAW thinks he is, then he's probably a high avg, high OBP player at AA or AAA by the end of the year. Do they spend on a guy like Story or even move on from Swanson. Big year for Swanson and Riley. We will need money or a trade to get a LF to move Ozuna to DH in the next budget.
 
Super said:
exactly. people keep clamoring for "risks" i guess because they make headlines and it's exciting in the moment. but those risks almost always leave the team in a dire situation sooner or later. so far the Braves have added zero long-term risks while still competing every year, and last year being one game away from a World Series that IMO they win.

we've seen what being too aggressive can do to a team that has good young pieces. being risk-averse while still competing at high levels is the dream, right? why take risks when you don't have to? lots of GMs would have made those aggressive moves to "go for it." AA hasn't, and has kept the future in impeccable shape.
Click to expand...

Most GMs are fired before they have to suffer for their "going for it" moves. So it's only natural they try to win while they have a job, and let the next GM worry about cleaning up the mess.
 
Enscheff said:
Most GMs are fired before they have to suffer for their "going for it" moves. So it's only natural they try to win while they have a job, and let the next GM worry about cleaning up the mess.
Click to expand...

sometimes their "going for it" moves and subsequent terrible situation is why they get fired.
 
Russ2dollas said:
For next year it will be interesting. If shewmake is what KLAW thinks he is, then he's probably a high avg, high OBP player at AA or AAA by the end of the year. Do they spend on a guy like Story or even move on from Swanson. Big year for Swanson and Riley. We will need money or a trade to get a LF to move Ozuna to DH in the next budget.
Click to expand...

Not to get ahead of ourselves, but if Shewmake is what KLAW thinks he is, he will be what Swanson is right now. With next year being a big SS FA class, there will be a couple left out of the musical chairs. Maybe AA will finally swing a deal that has a career year Swanson at the center of it. We will need a LF (maybe Drew) and a 3B (maybe Riley) as the only holes we have in our lineup. But that is 2022.
 
bravesguy said:
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but if Shewmake is what KLAW thinks he is, he will be what Swanson is right now. With next year being a big SS FA class, there will be a couple left out of the musical chairs. Maybe AA will finally swing a deal that has a career year Swanson at the center of it. We will need a LF (maybe Drew) and a 3B (maybe Riley) as the only holes we have in our lineup. But that is 2022.
Click to expand...

Not sure how a Swanson trade would work, especially with 1 year left on his deal. Essentially a contending team would be looking to acquire him, but what is a contending team going to give up that we need, since they're trying to contend?
 
bravesguy said:
Not to get ahead of ourselves, but if Shewmake is what KLAW thinks he is, he will be what Swanson is right now. With next year being a big SS FA class, there will be a couple left out of the musical chairs. Maybe AA will finally swing a deal that has a career year Swanson at the center of it. We will need a LF (maybe Drew) and a 3B (maybe Riley) as the only holes we have in our lineup. But that is 2022.
Click to expand...

I think Klaw is projecting a better hitter than Swanson. Maybe more in line with 2020, small sample size swanson, than with Swanson's full seasons thus far. I could be wrong though.
 
NYCBrave said:
Not sure how a Swanson trade would work, especially with 1 year left on his deal. Essentially a contending team would be looking to acquire him, but what is a contending team going to give up that we need, since they're trying to contend?
Click to expand...

Since one of the things we'll need is a non-depleted farm system, it seems likely. Or likely-ish.
 
Russ2dollas said:
I think Klaw is projecting a better hitter than Swanson. Maybe more in line with 2020, small sample size swanson, than with Swanson's full seasons thus far. I could be wrong though.
Click to expand...

I hope I'm wrong, but I'd be shocked if Shewmake hits any better than last year's version of Swanson over any significant sample.
 
NYCBrave said:
Not sure how a Swanson trade would work, especially with 1 year left on his deal. Essentially a contending team would be looking to acquire him, but what is a contending team going to give up that we need, since they're trying to contend?
Click to expand...

The idea behind a Swanson trade is that the return is a guy 2-3 years away from contributing, but since you've been making deals like this for the last 10 years the line keeps churning out new players. It is the rays model, and I'm not sure it works for a team that isn't as poor as them.

Or you do a surplus for surplus swap, like the Indians try to do with their pitchers and crappy OFers from other teams, then hope it works out better than it has for the Indians and their always awful OF.

I don't see it as particularly likely the Braves trade Swanson to make room at SS for Shew though. Have you seen the historic FA SS class next year? It will likely be a bad time trying to peddle a 2-3 win SS with a year of control left during that frenzy. The rosterbation around here about the Braves getting Lindor or Story or Seager or Correa or Baez is going to be unbearable.
 
Last edited:
Southcack77 said:
I think it's fair to question whether buying another 8 years of control for more than 30m per is a particularly great move.
Click to expand...

It's "fair" to question every single MLB contract since they're guaranteed - including Trout's and Acuna's.

These folks are playing with Monopoly money, and Tatis' AAV may very well be lower during the same years of his career than the other SSs I listed. Every single contract is a gamble, and the Padres gambled on the best player in the group. In a world where the numbers defy explanation, paying the best player less than the next-best players over the same period of their careers is (strangely) as logical as anything else in a world where people are getting paid millions and millions of dollars to play a game.

The Padres were in a position to pay Michael Jordan Scottie Pippen-level money and they took it - pretty hard to blame them on any level.
 
Enscheff said:
The idea behind a Swanson trade is that the return is a guy 2-3 years away from contributing, but since you've been making deals like this for the last 10 years the line keeps churning out new players. It is the rays model, and I'm not sure it works for a team that isn't as poor as them.

Or you do a surplus for surplus swap, like the Indians try to do with their pitchers and crappy OFers from other teams, then hope it works out better than it has for the Indians and their always awful OF.

I don't see it as particularly likely the Braves trade Swanson to make room at SS for Shew though. Have you seen the historic FA SS class next year? It will likely be a bad time trying to peddle a 2-3 win SS with a year of control left during that frenzy. The rosterbation around here about the Braves getting Lindor or Story or Seager or Correa or Baez is going to be unbearable.
Click to expand...

You could argue that including Swanson in a Suarez deal would make some sense if there would have been a DH in 2021. With no one available in Cincinnati's price range to play SS next winter either (and no one in their pipeline), they might be interested in extending Dansby. Not so much in an effort to create an opening at SS to try and get someone from next season's class, but because the Reds have absolutely no one to even stand at SS. The Reds don't "need" a replacement 3B since they have Senzel and India, so the Braves would have been able to deploy Riley in LF, Suarez at 3B, and Ozuna as a DH.

The problem is then WE wouldn't have anyone with any type of bat to stand at SS either. Would creating an offensive black hole at SS be worth having Suarez, Ozuna, and Riley in the lineup? You guys would have to do your juggling of the numbers to figure out whether that would make for a better team over 162 games.
 
bravesfanMatt said:
Why are we giving AA a pass or benefit of the doubt? He didn’t build this team. The core was in place for him to add around the edges and not screw anything up. Do I think he has one a good job. Yes. Am I giving him a pass. No.
Click to expand...

A little Column AA, and little Column Wren, for sure.
 
Russ2dollas said:
The weird thing to me is this deal almost seems like exactly what he'd sign for as a free agent. Maybe he'd get 50 million more. But it seems crazy to give someone a FA deal when you control them for a long time.
.
Click to expand...


When you consider that Mike Trout's AAV is 35m, getting extra years of Tatis at 32-33m definitely isn't a huge discount.

You can argue that Tatis will be the face of the game if you want and buying years at 2021 dollars might end up a bargain, but its huge risk for not much of a discount, IMO. I don't get it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top